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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,781
  • May 9, 2013 4:12pm May 9, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting mm2mm
How will the news from Japan (Current Account) that's about to happen in 3Hours, affect u/j though?
good Q... curr acct can be a mover, but moves are affected by levels as seen by traders.

if you shift to the tl viewpoint, and look at the tl channel getting respect from the last couple of weeks (you never know which fibo or trendline family member is gonna demand respect!), you'll see that the current consolidation is occurring as price action rests just about the upper rail (this is the tl channel defined by lows on may 2nd and may 9th). let the upper rail be located by the high on may 3rd, and you see how price is presently bouncing gently above it (so, that could be a second major breakout in the offing).

if you look above at tl echoes from apr 28th and 29th, you have to conclude that this thing has a lot of room to run to the upside (from the channel perspective)... i would say that after what happened earlier today with other major ccy's being devalued, that japan will feel as though it's okay to take the lid off --- when japan's "lid is off", look out above!
  • #33,782
  • May 9, 2013 4:31pm May 9, 2013 4:31pm
Old

101 40 - 50 and Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LONGggg uuuuu J.JPG Size: 109 KB
  • #33,783
  • May 9, 2013 4:47pm May 9, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting Dano12
Old 101 40 - 50 and Short {image}
? so, you're going to go short btwn 101.40 & 50?
  • #33,784
  • May 9, 2013 4:58pm May 9, 2013 4:58pm
yes TP 100 60-70 or 100 can now little short TP 100 - 99 90

By the end of next week, the Obama administration will no longer be able
to borrow money to fund government operations because Congress has only
agreed to extend the government's borrowing authority until May 19. While he has smartly expressed his preference that the most liquid bond market in the world "not default,", Speaker Boehner will take to the lectern this morning at 1045ET to discuss the upcoming "debt prioritization" bill. As Reuters notes, House Republicans are expected to pass the bill today that would require the Obama administration to prioritize government debt payments and retirement benefits if Congress fails to reach a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The legislation is not expected to go anywhere in the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House has said it will veto the bill, but what is essentially a tactical maneuver will allow the Republicans, who control the House, to argue they have done their best to avoid a potential U.S. credit default. We are sure the M.A.D. defense card will be played at least once...
  • #33,785
  • May 9, 2013 5:28pm May 9, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting Dano12
yes TP 100 60-70 or 100 can now little short TP 100 - 99 90 By the end of next week......
....................
We are sure the M.A.D. defense card will be played at least once...
okay didn't see that, haven't had time to read zerohedge yet today....but that's interesting. my take is that if the usa does do something that directly leads to a devalued dollar, japan will find some way to pull the "i'm fallen and can't get up" routine. i don't think they'll let .uj fall back below 100 now that they got the ball over the line.
  • #33,786
  • May 9, 2013 5:56pm May 9, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting livethedream
Thinking we'll come closer to 101 before we see any type of retrace. Maybe Asian session.
Scratch that. Currently short 100.68

100.9 SL

Looking for 100.1 tp but will close sooner if downward momentum slows down.

Basically looking to play a strong yen off the news coming up. Then will look to go long going into the London session.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,787
  • May 9, 2013 5:59pm May 9, 2013 5:59pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Scratch that. Currently short 100.68 100.9 SL Looking for 100.1 tp but will close sooner if downward momentum slows down. Basically looking to play a strong yen off the news coming up. Then will look to go long going into the London session.
there's downward momentum?
  • #33,788
  • May 9, 2013 6:04pm May 9, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} there's downward momentum?
Anticipating downward momentum from the news coming out within the hour since it's rumored to be positive for the yen, and the technicals line up imo... so therefore I'm short and expecting downward momentum following the news toward 100.

...simply doing some major speculating lol.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,789
  • May 9, 2013 6:14pm May 9, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} Anticipating downward momentum from the news coming out within the hour since it's rumored to be positive for the yen, and the technicals line up imo... so therefore I'm short and expecting downward momentum following the news toward 100. ...simply doing some major speculating lol.
i was looking at that earlier and found expectations of 300B, 480B and 1220B (!) yen surplus. don't know what to believe . have you found info to effect that the weakened yen has improved trade balance more than expected and will lead to higher than expected curr acct?
  • #33,790
  • May 9, 2013 6:19pm May 9, 2013 6:19pm
you might be right to go short on this pair because there is G7 meeting tomorrow and there must be some concern by the world about amount of easing in Japan and BOJ needs to show respect and caring, by this amount of easing EU will certainly dampen the growth, but from technical points I might like to wait for 101.70, it is a lazy trade though.
  • #33,791
  • May 9, 2013 6:24pm May 9, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i was looking at that earlier and found expectations of 300B, 480B and 1220B (!) yen surplus. don't know what to believe . have you found info to effect that the weakened yen has improved trade balance more than expected and will lead to higher than expected curr acct?
I keep reading that it's supposed to be positive, I actually just read one estimate of over 1 trillion. The weakening of the yen actually helps to provide more in the current account, and the yen has def. been weakening.

http://www.fxopen.com/livenews.aspx?...9-917a243586e9
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,792
  • May 9, 2013 6:30pm May 9, 2013 6:30pm
Keeping longs with very careful eye and tight SL... but maybe I should just exit lol...
  • #33,793
  • May 9, 2013 6:32pm May 9, 2013 6:32pm
Quoting holmes
you might be right to go short on this pair because there is G7 meeting tomorrow and there must be some concern by the world about amount of easing in Japan and BOJ needs to show respect and caring, by this amount of easing EU will certainly dampen the growth, but from technical points I might like to wait for 101.70, it is a lazy trade though.
I'm not sure how the markets will react to g7... simply looking for a boosted yen immediately following the current account number.

Just looking to add a little to the top of the profits made by the big move this morning... if not no harm done.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,794
  • May 9, 2013 6:33pm May 9, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting mm2mm
Keeping longs with very careful eye and tight SL... but maybe I should just exit lol...
I would keep them open with a tight SL. The news could actually boost this pair to the top, and if not the SL will keep you in profit.

Edit: Hell... for all I know we might not see any type of retracement at all until next week.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,795
  • May 9, 2013 6:35pm May 9, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting livethedream
{quote} I would keep them open with a tight SL. The news could actually boost this pair to the top, and if not the SL will keep you in profit. Edit: Hell... for all I know we might not see any type of retracement at all until next week.
Yes it may just consolidate I think... no up or down
  • #33,796
  • May 9, 2013 6:40pm May 9, 2013 6:40pm
tokyo in 20 mins, relax get some food and something to watch...
  • #33,797
  • May 9, 2013 6:40pm May 9, 2013 6:40pm
Anyone else keeping their long(s) positions?
  • #33,798
  • May 9, 2013 6:42pm May 9, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting mm2mm
Anyone else keeping their long(s) positions?
i am. sl @ 33
  • #33,799
  • May 9, 2013 6:44pm May 9, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i am. sl @ 33
SL @ .43 here
  • #33,800
  • May 9, 2013 6:49pm May 9, 2013 6:49pm
It will probably retrace but oh well..

Edit: I'm going to get stopped out by spread lmao
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