LJ Forex Group

It seemed like the best bargain after the first black bar forcing price back below the falsely broken highs, I was definitely not afraid to short it there against the demand below. Not sure why I didn't short it after the engulf, I suppose I placed too much emphasis on the ignored supply (since it was my FLS).

AU trade from this morning.

1. M5 - price hitting supply which causes an M1 FB.
2. Strong rejection from this supply (has that LS+reversal look to it)
3. Consumption of opposing demand, look t go short down to the FLS marked.
4. M1 can pinpoint the M5 opposing demand in more detail. Short on the break SL above the bar highs barked.

There was some demand just below but given the points above (i.e. strong rejection, consumption of first demand, FB) this looked rather minor and I expected price to make it's way through it.

I could have run some of the trade down to the next demand marked based on the M15 view that had formed but chose just to bank profit for +1.1R.

Today's trade I missed because I hesitated shorting to the immediate demand below.

I have a question about a UJ trade pretty similar to your latest AU short.

Are both ways of entering this trade acceptable in terms of expectancy?

P.S. my 100th post

I'd definitely only trade the lower entry myself otherwise it's shorting as price hits demand.

I wasn't very successful today, I really need to backtest FBs more. I suppose my biggest problem in trading is judging whether a demand zone is going to break (whether it's OK to sell into it) and vice versa for supply.

UJ FB loss



UCHF FB loss (not a particularly good one)



EJ channel break (shit)

Today's example of a great FB on UJ, unfortunately I only noticed it now in hindsight (there's an error in decription, swing high = swing low).

Am having trouble sending a broadcast round, so just in case it doesn't go through:

"Unfortunately I am going to have to postpone tonight's webinar as something has arisen that I need to attend to.

Apologies for any inconvenience caused.

However, I have recorded a video instead running through my current FTB's and DRT's together with today's FB setups.

You can watch the recording on the forum (it's free to join if you have not registered). The video is currently rendering but will be available to watch within an hour in the forum topic below:

http://www.thetradersguild.co.uk/wp/...forum.php?f=93

If you have any questions regarding the current setups or today's FB's then please either use the Q&A thread on the forum or ask in tomorrow nights webinar.



Regards
Mark"

The first FB on UJ wasn't too bad, a bit unfortunate with that one, but UCHF no value and EJ all a bit messy and congested around there, doesn't stand out to me.

That looked very good to me, nice FB with some very clear VLTF PA.

Hello Lovejoy:

Your contact page on your Traders Guild web site is not working. All you see is a big white bar at the top. I tried several times to use it a few minutes ago.

Borg

Thanks, should be working now.

I only managed to get into this FB today, I didn't see many good FBs today, perhaps because it was a pretty trendy day.

EURAUD – plenty of value with some help from the marked DBD, but it wasn't meant to be thanks to that spike and some crazy choppiness.


Lots of other opportunities on VLTF, I'm banging my head against my desk for idly watching this one.

Some more I noticed in hindsight, though I wouldn't know how to enter them in real time.

potential setups I`m watching
comments welcome

They all look ok to me. USDCHF is probably the weaker setup for me, great H4 location but the zone could be clearer on LTF's - - likely would risk less on that one myself.

AU @ 1.0155 (H1) and CADJPY @ 98.71 (H4) are also on my list.

Am out all this afternoon so just been focussing on UJ+EU for few hours this morning. Here are the 3 PA trades I've taken.

Haven't got time to produce annotated charts - they are just charts taken at the time to explain the trades to my Trading Room etc.

1. EURUSD + 2.52R

Breakout trade (didn't get a chance to move my default TP down to the more logical TP of the M5 demand at 55's).

Price had an earlier FB which I missed - was looking for the pull-back to 84's as per 2nd arrow after testing the demand just below there.

Following this move price reacted strongly to the 75 area demand, looked as if we were going to get a break long, but this move was completely reversed (the green rectangle) - this looked to me like a 'false' move early this morning to entice traders to go long so was actively looking for a short after this.

Price cleared the first demand as seen more clearly by the 30sec chart and thus expected this to act as supply. We had no rejection strength from the lower demand and it was clear to me that this supply was holding and a DBD more likely to form here.

Price moved very fast so missed the entry and SL combo I wanted (as per the arrows - 4 pip SL).

2. USDJPY +2.36R

Price reacted at M5 demand, was compressing down (could have had a breakout in either direction at one point - but the higher 2nd rejection of the M5 demand and strong buying was the sign to look for a long breakout).

Price had the breakout and new demand formed, waited for the retest and entered half a position long.

Entered another half a position long on the breakout of 61's flip area - again clearly strong buying there and not selling rejection strength.

Took partial closes at next supply and TP just shy of my final TP as price started to pause and retrace from there and ongoing %R wasn't attractive to hold.

3. USDJPY + 1.32R

Another breakout trade (though there was a much better setup on EJ at the same time as per last chart) - pretty straightforward that one, but was a bit too conservative with my first TP.

Impressive trades, thanks for sharing.

The FB setups you recently shared and dissected have inspired me to study them more on my own, here are today's live results so far.

GBPAUD – news whipped me out for a BE, then hit my HTF target. It was really choppy, but still showed bearish PA.




NZDJPY – I might have misjudged the target since I failed to notice an m1 DBD. Then whipped out by news for a small profit.

A 3-bar m5 FB I was watching on USDJPY, but ultimately I wasn't sure about it.

I think your analysis is good on these as they were far from easy setups to analyse. I'm not sure I would have got involved in either of these myself as it was just too complicated a VLTF picture for me on these types of setups.

I think the far easier trade was lower down on GAUD BTW - see the H2 chart below.