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Sonic R. System

  • #48,141
  • May 6, 2013 11:57pm May 6, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} IMHO yes it looks like H&S but there is no Volume confirmation, because Volumes are going down. I am waiting for break out of support. If it will happend then yes, H&S indeed. If not then Falling wedge.
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My previous Chart analyzing was confirmed.
Now I am much more sure about H&S formation because we have new TOP with less volume.
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Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #48,142
  • May 7, 2013 12:04am May 7, 2013 12:04am
Quoting traderathome
AU Short Trade: Entered short #1, Scout. This is based on M1 PVSRA showing MMs hiking price above half number with higher trading, and on the obvious fact M15 shows a down trend with price flirting with the Trend Line whch frequently represents the upper resistance "area". This is an interesting situation because the standard Classic setup shown is for a long trade. Yet M1 PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears. {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Short Trade: Entered short trade #2, Scout, based on M1 PVSRA showing MMs raised price above 3/4 number S&R with notable increase in trading, indicating the MMs are bears raising price and shorting. {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Short Trade: Added short trade #3, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows notable increase in activity as MMs moved price above whole number. {image}
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AU Short Trade: Added short trade #4, Classic. M1 PVSRA earlier indicated MMs remain bears and I set a pending order in case MMs rehiked the price to the proper Classic short setup EP area. They did. I entered. {image} {image}
AU Short Trade:

Closed all four short trades for 100x4= 400 pips gain, average EPx4 to close at TP1.
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  • #48,143
  • May 7, 2013 12:10am May 7, 2013 12:10am
Thread Page Count Suddenly Reduced?

Anyone know what Forex Factory or Sonic just did? My page count on this thread was 3209 a few hours ago. Now the highest thread page showing is 2408! Did the thread just lose 800 pages?

-tah
  • #48,144
  • May 7, 2013 12:28am May 7, 2013 12:28am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} See if it can stays above 129.5x as mentioned 2 hrs earlier.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YafVnsgVkME Sonic {image}
Hi Sonic,

I wanted to say thank you for sharing your trading system, and I have been watching and reading the posts for some time now.

Just curious what is the rationale for watching 129.5x other than the round number support.
  • #48,145
  • May 7, 2013 12:36am May 7, 2013 12:36am
Quoting traderathome
Thread Page Count Suddenly Reduced? Anyone know what Forex Factory or Sonic just did? My page count on this thread was 3209 a few hours ago. Now the highest thread page showing is 2408! Did the thread just lose 800 pages? -tah
no lose , only a small float

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  • #48,146
  • May 7, 2013 12:44am May 7, 2013 12:44am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Close my EJ short for abt 129.64 for 40 pips. Look bearish but see if 129.5x hold. Sonic {image}
PVSRA, EJ

PVSRA indicates MMs are bears. If so, price will eventually proceed down thru half number and go lower. BTW, in support of this determination by PVSRA, you will find the exact same moves on GJ and AJ! The MMs are preparing for something and went after shorts on all three YEN pairs at the exact same time. Maybe on other YEN pairs also, though I have not bothered to look.
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  • #48,147
  • May 7, 2013 1:37am May 7, 2013 1:37am
WHAT IS THE MARKET MAKER?

In trading currencies, market makers function as intermediaries in sales and purchases between two parties and two currencies. For example a bank will function as a market maker when it collects sellers of the US Dollar to then sell to investors who have Euros in exchange. The value of each currency is
based on the current market value.

To beat the MM you need to understand the basic objectives of their activity. Overall, the MM’s are traders and their objective is to make money.
This includes strategies to trade against retails traders. The major difference between them and other traders is that they have the ability, through access to massive volumes, to move price at their will. So to make money, they aim to buy at a lower price and then sell at a higher price. They achieve this by:

1. Inducing traders to take positions.

This is achieved by using a range of price movements to ‘trick’ traders into taking a position in a given direction but then reversing it again. This means that the MM can sell a specific currency at a certain price and then buy it back at a lower price when the retail trader feels too much pain from the currency value moving backward and wanting to sell it back again (e.g. via the stop loss)

2. Create panic and fear to induce traders to become emotional and think irrationally.
This often involves:

  1. quick moves
  2. spike candles
  3. news releases
  4. ‘inexplicable’ price behaviour.

3. Hit the Stops and Clear the Board.

This forces traders into ‘margin trouble’ and ultimately out of the game.


- definition of MM's by Steve Mauro
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #48,148
  • May 7, 2013 1:46am May 7, 2013 1:46am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade: Added short trade #7, Scout. M1 PVSRA, MMs raised price above 3/4 S&R and followed up with higher trading = bears. BTW, the US MMs timed this hike for right after the close of the London session so there would be less competition for liquidity. {image}
GU Short Trade:

Added short trade #8, Classic. M1 PVSRA shows higher activity at highs and coming off of highs, indicating the MMs remain bears.
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  • #48,149
  • May 7, 2013 1:55am May 7, 2013 1:55am
WHAT TOOLS DOES THE MARKET MAKER HAVE?

Even though they have a number of tools at their disposal, they do have some restrictions imposed on them from outside authorities. These include:

  1. The IMF restricts their ability to move price to a general range so as to avoid a collapse of the market.
  2. This is generally limited to the ADR and will involve moves of as much as 200 pips per day in most pairs.
  3. They do not have unlimited equity so it is necessary for the marketmakers to close positions and regain balance periodically.

The only tools they have are to be able to buy or sell currency in different volumes at different prices. By doing this strategically, they can:

  1. Entice traders to take positions by providing evidence that price is or is going to move in a certain direction.
  2. Appeal to the emotional side of traders by changing the character and speed of price changes.
  3. Once the trap has been set, and the bait taken, cause the price to move in such a way as to cause price to move against the traders, allowing the banks to buy currency back from or sell currency back to the traders so that they are square again.
  4. This means that the trader has entered the market by buying currency from the bank at a given price and exited the market by selling back to the bank at a lower price. Conversely, the bank has sold to the trader at the higher given price and bought back from the trader at the lower price.

While these price movements are used to trap traders into unfavourable positions, they are not used 24 hours a day, but will be used more at certain times. The patterns are most commonly observed in the following time periods :

  1. The beginning of the season (quarterly)
  2. The beginning of the week (Sun/Mon)
  3. The beginning of the day
  4. The beginning of the session
  5. The end of the session
  6. The end of day
  7. The end of the week
  8. The end of the season.


In addition to move price MM's can take advantage of "sentiment" which develops as a result of news releases of varying types. Sometimes immediate price movements are designed and used to "cover-up" the MM is price movement. The rumour mill also has a role to play in generating a public expectation of price movement. It is not uncommon to see the general news being particularly pessimistic for example about a particular currency only to see the currency rise against it but usually after people have been trapped in line with the sentiment.

- the source is the same as previous one
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #48,150
  • May 7, 2013 1:55am May 7, 2013 1:55am
UChf Long Trade:

Entered long trade #1, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs took price below 3/4 S&R and increased activity, indicating the MMs are bulls. No SL, no TP at this time.
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  • #48,151
  • May 7, 2013 2:05am May 7, 2013 2:05am
Quoting Tymedu
AU I know TAH is looking for shorts here, but I will go long and I´ll explain why. In the daily chart we have a trendline and a potential wedge forming (see image attached). In the last 10 daily candles we had a triple bottom in a previous support zone. If we go into a closer chart like 4H, we can see the triple bottom better and how we have higher volume at the lows. In the 15m chart we can see in depth the volume and again all I see is higher volumes at the bottoms with a nice pinbar in the last swing low. Tonight we have a big event related...
SL Hit -44x2 = -88 My first 2 losses of the month.

Btw TAH, I was not saying EU and GU are bullish (actually I´m shorting them as you are cause I think they are bearish). I just said that following your argument about daily chart dragon and PA waves it seems bullish, nothing else.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,152
  • May 7, 2013 2:13am May 7, 2013 2:13am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} SL Hit -44x2 = -88 My first 2 losses of the month. Btw TAH, I was not saying EU and GU are bullish (actually I´m shorting them as you are cause I think they are bearish). I just said that following your argument about daily chart dragon and PA waves it seems bullish, nothing else.
Tymedu, I am sorry for your loss. You set a hard SL, something I find very difficult to make myself do except in rare situations. I bow to you on that.

-tah
  • #48,153
  • May 7, 2013 2:27am May 7, 2013 2:27am
Creating shorts at EU. It is preLondon, tragon turned down, PA below dragon. My target is 1.305 . Maybe too close. But there is high supporting activity at lows last week
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Be coherent with your strategy
  • #48,154
  • May 7, 2013 2:29am May 7, 2013 2:29am
current strength
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Smile, Breath, and Go slowly
  • #48,155
  • May 7, 2013 2:30am May 7, 2013 2:30am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} 1. I agree that the MMs are bears. 2. Why are you using the antique indy/template (black). We do not use QQE, CCI anymore! I recommend you use TAH indy/template per Post 1, link 1 (white shown, white or black available). I have the feeling you did not read very much very well. {image} {image}
Thanks for your kind recommendation , i am still using classic sonic setup for trading & only using PVSRA for confirmation as its still somthing new for me .

i used one of TAH template as you recommended (tah 05-01-2012 white-1) but for some reason (RWH-RDH-RDL-RWL) lines are too short & on the far right side of the chart , its even disappear on some TF !!

how i can extended these lines like your chart?
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  • #48,156
  • May 7, 2013 2:31am May 7, 2013 2:31am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Tymedu, I am sorry for your loss. You set a hard SL, something I find very difficult to make myself do except in rare situations. I bow to you on that. -tah
Agree on that, I'm trying to mix "building positions" with normal entries but I have to admit that lately it's hard for me to trade with tight SL. But my friend, trading is a decision game, sometimes you win and sometimes you loose. As soon as you (or me, or we) understand that, life is way easier. It was a decision made on technical and fundamental (I didn't think the Bank of Australia would cut the rate from 3 to 2.75%) and it went bad, nothing important, looking for the next one!

The most important thing is to learn something every single trade you make.

Have a nice day guys!
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,157
  • May 7, 2013 2:34am May 7, 2013 2:34am
Quoting aussie2010
{quote} Thanks for your kind recommendation , i am still using classic sonic setup for trading & only using PVSRA for confirmation as its still somthing new for me . i used one of TAH template as you recommended (tah 05-01-2012 white-1) but for some reason (RWH-RDH-RDL-RWL) lines are too short & on the far right side of the chart , its even disappear on some TF !! how i can extended these lines like your chart? {image} {image}
It is very easy to do. Just read the instructions. You might also want to take a closer look at the selection of templates already provided, though they are all made just by changing some settings. Read the instructions and all your questions will be answered.
  • #48,158
  • May 7, 2013 2:39am May 7, 2013 2:39am
Quoting aussie2010
{quote} Thanks for your kind recommendation , i am still using classic sonic setup for trading & only using PVSRA for confirmation as its still somthing new for me . i used one of TAH template as you recommended (tah 05-01-2012 white-1) but for some reason (RWH-RDH-RDL-RWL) lines are too short & on the far right side of the chart , its even disappear on some TF !! how i can extended these lines like your chart? {image} {image}
you can simply use white-2 template. It should disappear, because on high TF others levels become to play
Be coherent with your strategy
  • #48,159
  • May 7, 2013 2:53am May 7, 2013 2:53am
AU Comment:

Sonicers, the MMs are starting to restore AU prices upwards again. PVSRA indicates the MMs remain bears. That being the case, the MMs are hiking prices to start a new round of short building. How high will they pump the price? I don't know, but the MMs could be building for a whole new short trade, one which might run down to the next lower whole number. Yes, below RWL.

Personally, I am waiting to see if the bear MMs get the price up to the 1/4 S&R for my first new short entry. Then maybe the upper half number/RDH area later, if they get it up there.
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  • #48,160
  • May 7, 2013 3:49am May 7, 2013 3:49am
Quote
AU Comment:

Sonicers, the MMs are starting to restore AU prices upwards again. PVSRA indicates the MMs remain bears. That being the case, the MMs are hiking prices to start a new round of short building. How high will they pump the price? I don't know, but the MMs could be building for a whole new short trade, one which might run down to the next lower whole number. Yes, below RWL.

Personally, I am waiting to see if the bear MMs get the price up to the 1/4 S&R for my first new short entry. Then maybe the upper half number/RDH area later, if they...

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