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Sonic R. System

  • #48,121
  • May 6, 2013 3:29pm May 6, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU: Geez! I sure would appreciate it if you Sonicers would catch up on reading the thread before imposing by asking questions already answered! This was asked before, more than once! And answered, more than once! Here is my updated answer, which hasn't changed in the slightest! I don't know what others make of this, but it seems to me the MMs might have a shitload of longs they are trying to get rid, and shorts they are trying to obtain, before the price drops further. -tah {image} {image}
I surely can read, and i did read this post TAH, I also understand your comments on the picture, but somehow missing the point connection with the volume. Im unable to find much of the evidence of big volumes at the top. And that was confusing me. Thats all. thanks for answer.
Lose small, WIN BIG..
  • #48,122
  • May 6, 2013 3:42pm May 6, 2013 3:42pm
EU This long-term analysis, you do not work here but it is to contextualize where we are, I'm not sure if it is acceptable but today I saw a few ideas.
A happy week to all
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500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #48,123
  • May 6, 2013 3:55pm May 6, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting Apollo14
EU This long-term analysis, you do not work here but it is to contextualize where we are, I'm not sure if it is acceptable but today I saw a few ideas. A happy week to all {image}
EU:

This is where we are, and not much change since last posted.....
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  • #48,124
  • May 6, 2013 5:15pm May 6, 2013 5:15pm
AU

I know TAH is looking for shorts here, but I will go long and I´ll explain why.

In the daily chart we have a trendline and a potential wedge forming (see image attached). In the last 10 daily candles we had a triple bottom in a previous support zone. If we go into a closer chart like 4H, we can see the triple bottom better and how we have higher volume at the lows.

In the 15m chart we can see in depth the volume and again all I see is higher volumes at the bottoms with a nice pinbar in the last swing low. Tonight we have a big event related to the AUD so I will long before that event.

Also, the risk reward ratio is good. There is a L - H - HL and the price is exiting the dragon. The best entry would be to wait 3-4 hours more (1-2 hours before the event) but it's too late for me (6:30 AM local time).

So I just put 2 long entries at the same point with the same SL (39pips) and 2 TP (see last image attached). I can be wrong of course, but I analyze price, volume and S/R zones. If I´m wrong, it's ok, tomorrow will be another day

Best, Tymedu.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,125
  • May 6, 2013 5:38pm May 6, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting Tymedu
AU I know TAH is looking for shorts here, but I will go long and I´ll explain why. In the daily chart we have a trendline and a potential wedge forming (see image attached). In the last 10 daily candles we had a triple bottom in a previous support zone. If we go into a closer chart like 4H, we can see the triple bottom better and how we have higher volume at the lows. In the 15m chart we can see in depth the volume and again all I see is higher volumes at the bottoms with a nice pinbar in the last swing low. Tonight we have a big event related...
Neat and well considered analysis..

Likely to go up as well..

And let the mkt decide...


Sonic
  • #48,126
  • May 6, 2013 5:57pm May 6, 2013 5:57pm
I have followed this thread for a long time and don't participate. As a thank you for all who post in here. This may be a benefit to you or not, but I thought I'd post it anyway.

For money management I have used an excel spreadsheet to reflect my trades and projected goals for a year out. Mainly the year was done because my wife wanted to see what was possible.

I have notes on the .pdf explaining most of what each item does. The rates that are in here are based on a micro account (and I advise all who are starting FX live start with a micro account). You will need to make some adjustments on Sheet2 to work with your brokers rates. I have left it fully open and unlocked on it so that you can make any changes you need. Just remember because of that you could also screw the formulas up so save often and remember ctrl-z.

If you have any questions or are not able to get something to work, let me know.

Enjoy!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf How to use.pdf   110 KB | 887 downloads
File Type: xlsx Annual Goals.xlsx   61 KB | 533 downloads
  • #48,127
  • Edited 6:44pm May 6, 2013 6:24pm | Edited 6:44pm
Quoting Tymedu
AU I know TAH is looking for shorts here, but I will go long and I´ll explain why. In the daily chart we have a trendline and a potential wedge forming (see image attached). In the last 10 daily candles we had a triple bottom in a previous support zone. If we go into a closer chart like 4H, we can see the triple bottom better and how we have higher volume at the lows. In the 15m chart we can see in depth the volume and again all I see is higher volumes at the bottoms with a nice pinbar in the last swing low. Tonight we have a big event related...
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Neat and well considered analysis.. Likely to go up as well.. And let the mkt decide... Sonic
AU, Just How Can We Analyze It?

1. How about analyzing the Day chart in terms of Sonic R.? Huh!? Nice PA wave with lower HLs, Dragon is angled down, Trend is angled down, and PA is below both!

2. Now how about a little PVSRA? It is not hard to see that over the last two plus weeks most of the higher activity has been to the downside! In fact, if you look closely you will see that whatever there is of high activity for bull candles, those bull candles only restored the price a bit higher for even more shorting and more downside! PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears.

Sure, at any time the MMs can reverse the price and move it as far as they wish to afford to move it. But aside from that, both in terms of Sonic R. Classic and in terms of PVSRA, bears have been calling the shots. And so with multiple AUD high impact releases today, will the bear MMs wait until they are all in and then initiate a bear run for profits? Before all the releases are in, will the bear MMs re-hike the price to add more shorts? Or, will the bear MMs be suddenly taken by total surprise by what is in the releases, and instantly switch to bulls? That's a good one!

-tah
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  • #48,128
  • May 6, 2013 6:42pm May 6, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} {quote} AU, Just How Can We Analyze It? 1. How about analyzing the Day chart in terms of Sonic R.? Huh!? Nice PA wave with lower HLs, Dragon is angled down, Trend is angled down, and PA is below both! 2. Now how about a little PVSRA? It is not hard to see that over the last two plus weeks most of the higher activity has been to the downside! In fact, if you look closely you will see that whatever there is of high activity for bull candles, those bull candles only restored the price a bit higher for even more shorting and more downside! PVSRA...

I could be agree with your point 1, but sorry TAH, you can't use that argument only if it interests you. Following that argument, why are you shorting EU or GU? In the daily chart both are bullish with nice PA waves.

Regarding your point 2, it's all about relativity. 2 weeks in forex is completely a world. The pushed the price down, of course they did, but the trendline is there in the daily chart and until the price doesn't break it, it is a bullish wedge pattern. Of course, tonight the price can break it, and I will lose 35-40 pips, but this is a decision game and I made mine based in price, volume, supports and resistances. But again, of course all of them can fail.

Going to sleep now, have a great night!
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,129
  • May 6, 2013 7:02pm May 6, 2013 7:02pm
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I could be agree with your point 1, but sorry TAH, you can't use that argument only if it interests you. Following that argument, why are you shorting EU or GU? In the daily chart both are bullish with nice PA waves. Regarding your point 2, it's all about relativity. 2 weeks in forex is completely a world. The pushed the price down, of course they did, but the trendline is there in the daily chart and until the price doesn't break it, it is a bullish wedge pattern. Of course, tonight the price can break it, and I will lose 35-40 pips, but...
Not So Fast.....

1. EU Day chart certainly is not bullish, not with those high activity bear bars screaming down off the highs!
2. GU Day chart certainly is not bullish either. Price reached up to the center of historic consolidation and has become exhausted. More time is needed now for any clear indication one way or the other.

Ok, let's see what happens with AU, and EU and GU too. BTW, I do not often use the higher TF charts except maybe to show a H&S formation, etc. You were the one that jumped up to that TF, so just to present a "balance" I posted another viewpoint using the same chart. PVSRA is far more effective on the lower TF charts.

-tah
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  • #48,130
  • May 6, 2013 7:17pm May 6, 2013 7:17pm
AU:

Keeping in mind that bear MMs can and do put on bullish PA, and with AUD releases coming anything can happen, for now it looks like the MMs remain bears.
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  • #48,131
  • May 6, 2013 8:14pm May 6, 2013 8:14pm
Hi there! I have been reading this thread for a week. This is great stuff! I have always use volume to trade futures. Since forex actual vol is not easily available, like you guys, I'm trying to use the "no. of movement" to replace vol. What I do is to compile high vol transacted levels using 1min data. Since we are discussing whether MM is Bull or Bears last few days, let me start with AUDUSD here. It shows most transactions were done at 1.025 level since April 23rd.
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  • #48,132
  • May 6, 2013 8:19pm May 6, 2013 8:19pm
Close my EJ short for abt 129.64 for 40 pips.
Look bearish but see if 129.5x hold.

Sonic
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  • #48,133
  • May 6, 2013 8:26pm May 6, 2013 8:26pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Keeping in mind that bear MMs can and do put on bullish PA, and with AUD releases coming anything can happen, for now it looks like the MMs remain bears. {image}
i see little support
  • #48,134
  • May 6, 2013 8:43pm May 6, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting jasakreatif
{quote} im not play with luck , i play with a plan , a plan for reduce my unluck situation , i thought i got harlem shake yesterday nfp , now i'm thinking to close both at aqua line if i got luck consolidation area , but if not i have another plan . {image}
i can smile a bit now ..
tp is the same

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  • #48,135
  • May 6, 2013 8:51pm May 6, 2013 8:51pm
long EJ 129.40
  • #48,136
  • May 6, 2013 10:19pm May 6, 2013 10:19pm
******BUY EU******
  • #48,137
  • May 6, 2013 11:06pm May 6, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Close my EJ short for abt 129.64 for 40 pips. Look bearish but see if 129.5x hold. Sonic {image}
See if it can stays above 129.5x as mentioned 2 hrs earlier..

Inserted Video


Sonic
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  • #48,138
  • Edited 11:13pm May 6, 2013 11:10pm | Edited 11:13pm
30 minit before meeting .

anyidea where is the key of reversal ?


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  • #48,139
  • May 6, 2013 11:35pm May 6, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting jasakreatif
30 minit before meeting . anyidea where is the key of reversal ? {image}{image}
any support broke , here ya go free jump till november , hope someone catch this.

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  • #48,140
  • May 6, 2013 11:48pm May 6, 2013 11:48pm
This is not easy but looking at the volume a case could be made that the MM:s was/is buying prior to the the big bera move- I´m probably wrong and then please set me strait:

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Regards

Waez
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