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  • #795,021
  • May 6, 2013 1:13pm May 6, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} It's a dangerous area...both for bulls and bears...time will tell. I'll add shorts when PA stops rising
yup but for those who are entering now. I am long and now in 15 green pips. moved SLs to confirm no loose! Hope for the best!
  • #795,022
  • May 6, 2013 1:13pm May 6, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Ok, no trades developing for me here, so I shall leave you with my silly H4 chart. You know I cant trade intraday, but anyway, ,3075 holds now, ,3036 test, expecting break, ,297 test tomorrow (not in chart, but important mid). ,291 caps the move down. Pure TA, FA is cloudy for me. I am hoping you are going to help me solve that cut bundle . Cya later, T {image}

i seee the retest but you may have missed the bottom.... I was under the impresion 1.2840 last week from 130.60 etc... but a pro said he expected higher so clouded my judgement, but now afer we held etc at support at 13037 last week i seen on the charts a bowl forming on 4 hour and the 4 hour down does not look correct, that's all i can say and it looks like 1.32 will be comng followed by a retrace then 1.3320.

As for the retest of 1.3037 i seen that and thats the bottom of my apex but tomorrow my apex is raised. i suggested today 1.3058 top of support whilst 1.4053 was the bottom.. so you may have missed the exact bottom.. but we should get a pullback of 131 to 1.3070/66 where i will be looking to reload.

Best of luck, be safe
  • #795,023
  • May 6, 2013 1:18pm May 6, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting RussJ
{quote} RSX if you are day trading then you should not be using more than ideally a 2 pip stop.... when yur accurate you can narrow price down to 5 pips and just take it or you can wait for some confirmation of say a 5 minute chart. Also I day trade and swing trade.. i use all time frames.. but a 4 hour trade to me is a spot trade, forget using 5 -15 min trade that to me is a scalp, a swing trade is a couple of days or longer... I scale in and scale out and at major areas i hedge with added contracts so if i am long say 5 contracts.... then i may...
Russ you replied to me. RSX was asking about longer term position trading not daytrading. Just an fyi
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #795,024
  • May 6, 2013 1:20pm May 6, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting RsX
Hello, guys. New to the forum here, though not as new to forex (~3 years dedicated FX experience, TF/ES e-minis 3 years prior to that). Hoping to join along for some progressive discussion, regarding EU trading, setups, market outlook and other ideas. Looking forward to learning from the discussions, as well as occasionally sharing my own analysis, market scenarios as well as trades taken. For proper introduction, some brief background: I look for extended intraday / overnight price moves, off specific trade setups/patterns that allow ~15-20 pips...
RSX the image is correct. I was tending towards 1.2840 and that could still happen but i am now leaning towards 1.3320 then pullback and then 1.3380 and i will look again at that point.

but like you am thinking 1.3053 as stated today bottom... upto 1.31 retrace to 1.3065/70 then upto 1.3138/45 and down to 1.3110 where it will push to 1.3183/ Where people will short Daily Head and Shoulders but it will probably fail and will retrace too 1.3120 where it will be bought up then test 1.3204/15 (probably break 132.04 the resistance and go to 1.3215 which is a break) then retrace to 1.3260 before pushing up to 1.3260...then rettrace again before pumping up to 1.3330 where it will have a decent pullback before making another move higher to 1.3380 not sure then where it will go as not done analysis past there.. but think that follows similar to your plan
  • #795,025
  • May 6, 2013 1:21pm May 6, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting goods
{quote} Russ you replied to me. RSX was asking about longer term position trading not daytrading. Just an fyi

no probs, apologies goods, just sent him what i believe will happen but his roadmap looked correct that he posted
  • #795,026
  • May 6, 2013 1:22pm May 6, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting De La Kritz
I've never seen this number of prophets but on forexfactory.their predictions never move me cos many seem to be amateurs

Your reading messages of the wrong prophets lol
  • #795,027
  • May 6, 2013 1:26pm May 6, 2013 1:26pm
okay I closed my long at 1.3080 Was good 17 pip profit on almost dead market.
Good night all.
  • #795,028
  • May 6, 2013 1:31pm May 6, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting RsX
Hello, guys. New to the forum here, though not as new to forex (~3 years dedicated FX experience, TF/ES e-minis 3 years prior to that). Hoping to join along for some progressive discussion, regarding EU trading, setups, market outlook and other ideas. Looking forward to learning from the discussions, as well as occasionally sharing my own analysis, market scenarios as well as trades taken. For proper introduction, some brief background: I look for extended intraday / overnight price moves, off specific trade setups/patterns that allow ~15-20 pips...

RSX if you want the big moves you need to be looking at the weekly and monthly charts but you need to be bagging profit everyday... scale out 60/70% of your position at the bottom or top of the day. or you could look where the next major point is and leave the position build up and scale at say a daily support.. and scale in/add to your position everyday but if adding to position everyday.. you need to understand the fractals fully... and need to know ones you can leave and ones you need to cut at end of day and ones that you would scale to give you more room on the stop loss etc - thos longer moves will cone at weekly and monthly turning points
  • #795,029
  • May 6, 2013 1:37pm May 6, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting namitak007
okay I closed my long at 1.3080 Was good 17 pip profit on almost dead market. Good night all.
Good boy...i was aiming at your stop
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #795,030
  • May 6, 2013 1:44pm May 6, 2013 1:44pm
Closed my short +47 pips.

Starting to see I'm much better at shorting than long...ing?

Thinking we are in for more selling throughout the week. Gonna try a little different approach and try not to leave positions open over night.
  • #795,031
  • May 6, 2013 1:49pm May 6, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi, I've just started posting here myself (more out of boredom than anything..boredom, that bane of the trader's life) but to be honest from what I've seen here today I am afraid, at least to me, the postings are mostly quite immature and lacking in any usefulness whatsoever. What technicals are suggesting upside to you? The best I can see now is a neutral picture; we are in the middle of something of a triangular formation but that itself is within a bear flag, and struggling to stay within it. But yes, bearishness is everywhere. I find...
Hi, Boy Wonder. I do agree - there's a lot of noise and empty posts as well (mostly, actually)- but that's no matter where you look, at any public forum / thread. There's also a lot of value to filter out of all that here, I believe. I've read the thread a bunch of pages from the beginning, various middle sections and quite many of the recent pages, during the last weeks. There are traders who know what they're doing here and I do believe in the possibility to engage in many constructive discussions, both conflicting and confirming my own experience and perspective As well as learning from others via exchange of knowledge and experience.

As to the upside scenario: most reasons stated in the commentary of attached chart. They're my perspective, from the methods and aspects I use, so if looked from the outside, might say nothing at first. Each has their own way of thinking and perceiving the current market. But, main things are:

1) holding the T/L drawn from that multiweek DB (established at ~2750)
2) a higher low, followed by a higher high - no lower low yet = uptrend - until proven otherwise (solid break of that ~3000 zone ought to be enough proof)
3) wave structure: after the completed A and B waves, the supposed C-impulse remained very short, compared to the the A-wave (the 1st 5-wave impulse) - in both time and price wise. That suggests the latest impulse is a smaller wave 1 instead, just the beginning of wave C. And, the last down move 3240->3040 is also a readable, complete 5-wave structure, meaning it's possibly a completed retrace eg 2nd smaller wave.
4) trend tools: on my daily chart (not posted here yet), my trend tools, which I treat as subtle background reminder mostly, are both solid green, having flipped about 3 weeks ago, as the double bottom confirmed.

There are considerable arguments for the downside continuation as well, all of them layed out in the snapshot - which is why I'm on the sidelines for now. That ~3200 rejection, latest from a slight higher high is indeed an ominous hint, and the market needs to get back above that strong 3150-3180 area indeed. Thus, as said earlier, market is not hinting anything considerable for now, so no decent odds for the upside nor downside at the moment - no actions, until it hits the green / red confirm areas, for my trading. The reason why I've concentrated more on the upside scenario, is purely psychological - too many short positions, too many bears, too little fuel for extended downside. Needs to run the stop clusters that cause maximum pain, before the longer term trend continues. Nothing's high odds - but market is built upon that psychology, and it's purpose is to move from one cluster of stops to another, nothing else basically.
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #795,032
  • Edited 2:23pm May 6, 2013 2:09pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting goods
{quote} Hi RSX, So a little advice what I have learned from the market because I look to Swing/Position trade. ...
Hello, goods. Thanks a lot for the pointers. I've found that once the trade goes 1:5 R/R in favor, it usually has great odds to work way more in favor. However yes, it might come pretty much all the way back down, eg 50%, even 70-80%, while still not returning to BE. So yes - that's a huge challenge, watching the trade go 1:5, perhaps 1:7 risk/reward and then NOT locking in the majority of that unrealized gain, instead just continuing to sit while having eliminated risk. What I've done so far, is go more aggressive with the trail, once about 1:5 is hit... meaning, if it's a runaway market, it'll give me more, but if it's a zigzag whip-fest, it'll of course pick my trail out, as most of the time.

The scaling out strategy (that RussJ actually proposed later), is also very good advice, but it's very personality-dependent, in my opinion. I personally prefer scale-ins and eventually all out - just a habit grown from my own experiences, even though it will mean giving back good chuncks at times, without taking some off. Mathematically, it actually means cutting your gains in the end and substantially decreasing eventual risk/reward - as you're actually letting the smaller part run, while cutting the profit on the bigger part. It does, however, provide that psychological comfort of "taking some off the table" and does help very much, if you can't stand watching the market give back majority of the gains before it eventually goes wildly in favor (IF it does, of course) - So agreed, it's an effective psychological measure, though financially it's counter-productive.

About the indicators: I enter, manage the trade, trail profits, and make each decision purely based on price and price measures - the two indicators are there as background tools. No direct decisions off these, they're merely just another component, a slight edge to combine with other analysis.


Again, thanks for the worthy ideas, goods.
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #795,033
  • May 6, 2013 2:10pm May 6, 2013 2:10pm
st eu bears have a valid cross still from 3147 mofu to target 2863.. today's move then retrace to norm 3085 already is/may be the high, before 2863 now.. (2830)
just above norm is the um at 3092.. that plus a few may be enough.. a sub 3064 close would help in 2h
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #795,034
  • May 6, 2013 2:29pm May 6, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting SugarPink
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367798021 yep im buying
and Mercedes is trying to sell. so who is right? the Italian guy from Goldman, or one of the Crown jewel countries, oldest auto maker? http://www.motortrend.com/new_cars/2...mercedes_benz/

unlike dragass who might do this or that, they are already doing. i got a question.. if sales of mercedez are so brisk in the ez. why is a premier auto company cheaping their brand?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #795,035
  • May 6, 2013 2:29pm May 6, 2013 2:29pm
Nr 7 is all over this pair. On 1 hour timeframe start with top candle as 1 and count all the way down notice
7 multiples what happens on bar nr 14 nr 21 nr 28 nr 35 and so on draw vertical lines and
See
  • #795,036
  • May 6, 2013 2:35pm May 6, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting SugarPink
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1367798021 yep im buying
and Mercedes is trying to sell. so who is right? the Italian guy from Goldman, or one of the Crown jewel countries, oldest auto maker? http://www.motortrend.com/new_cars/2...mercedes_benz/

unlike dragass who might do this or that, they are already doing. i got a question.. if sales of Mercedes are so brisk in the ez. why is a premier auto company cheaping their brand?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #795,037
  • Edited 2:52pm May 6, 2013 2:37pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting fxmasterboy
Nr 7 is all over this pair. On 1 hour timeframe start with top candle as 1 and count all the way down notice 7 multiples what happens on bar nr 14 nr 21 nr 28 nr 35 and so on draw vertical lines and See
every 4 sets u get a drop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7s.png Size: 48 KB
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #795,038
  • May 6, 2013 2:39pm May 6, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting suthmo
{quote}every 4 sets u get a drop
Can see it on other timeframes also
  • #795,039
  • May 6, 2013 2:39pm May 6, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting fxmasterboy
Nr 7 is all over this pair. On 1 hour timeframe start with top candle as 1 and count all the way down notice 7 multiples what happens on bar nr 14 nr 21 nr 28 nr 35 and so on draw vertical lines and See
post a chart
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #795,040
  • May 6, 2013 2:42pm May 6, 2013 2:42pm
Im at work posting from mobile phone
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