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  • #795,001
  • May 6, 2013 10:41am May 6, 2013 10:41am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I may go long based on 5mn...only if i see a double bottom at 1,305x with a bullish setup, otherwise new lows. GL with your trade though
Hmm! Yeah you are right. Well MA for 1 hr chart can tell you my logic. It's same as what we are seeing on 5mn now. And it turned again opposite. Well time will tell about my survival but I am sure I made a good decision. As I placed long on the "assumption" I risked very low amount which I can afford to loose so let's see how this "strategy" works!
Wish me good luck too!
  • #795,002
  • May 6, 2013 10:45am May 6, 2013 10:45am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} If you're trading based on tick charts you're mental, but that's just my opinion. Good luck to you.
Sometimes I forget I am probably the only one ultra short term trading here. What looks like a pullback to 4hr tf traders, (bullish pullback which just happened) made my day.
I appreciate the long term opinions posted here (I believe a true scalper should be aware of much bigger time frames, to avoid big obstacles). Even if I was right about that bullish movement, that concerned only very short term traders, and the last thing I want to do is create confusion here, based on the fact that the majority of population here are long term traders, so I will keep those comments to myself in the future.
Tick charts are awsome for very short term trading, as you must know with your 10 years of XP trading.
Gl.
  • #795,003
  • May 6, 2013 10:47am May 6, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You were short. Well done. I don't like trading in the direction of retail positioning which is clearly bearish EURUSD, and the technicals supported stance that until late last week. However, the picture is not good for longs now so I am out. I don't like being on the side of retail positioning even if the technicals support it because I end up with a battle in my head - technicals vs retail positioning. There are better fish to fry, where the technicals are against retail positioning.
I'll show you why it was clear, watch the green trend line
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #795,004
  • May 6, 2013 10:48am May 6, 2013 10:48am
Ok, no trades developing for me here, so I shall leave you with my silly H4 chart. You know I cant trade intraday, but anyway, ,3075 holds now, ,3036 test, expecting break, ,297 test tomorrow (not in chart, but important mid). ,291 caps the move down. Pure TA, FA is cloudy for me. I am hoping you are going to help me solve that cut bundle .

Cya later,

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #795,005
  • May 6, 2013 10:50am May 6, 2013 10:50am
Quoting KillerWhale
I'll show you why it was clear, watch the green trend line
Y, screw Syria, screw Draghi, trendline is there . I just love you guys.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #795,006
  • May 6, 2013 10:55am May 6, 2013 10:55am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Y, screw Syria, screw Draghi, trendline is there . I just love you guys.
So Syria controls your trading? And dragshit when he's not speaking?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #795,007
  • May 6, 2013 11:00am May 6, 2013 11:00am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} I'll show you why it was clear, watch the green trend line {image}
Jesus, why do you care so much about proving yourself to me? I've already said well done for being short.
We see (or saw) different things. You provide a chart that shows a breakdown, but this is after the event. Prior to today's breakdown we had a decent bullish recovery from the initial drop on Friday, to close with a green daily candle, which indicated two-way trading. Two-way trading can quite easily go against retail positioning for long enough to provide a decent trade. In this case I expected that but it turns out that I was wrong.
Today's action until the drop showed a potential tight bull flag. I expected it to break out of the bull flag to the upside. Probably 2 out of 3 times (or more) it would do so. In this case it didn't.

Please, get over it. You were right. Be happy.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #795,008
  • May 6, 2013 11:04am May 6, 2013 11:04am
Hello, guys. New to the forum here, though not as new to forex (~3 years dedicated FX experience, TF/ES e-minis 3 years prior to that). Hoping to join along for some progressive discussion, regarding EU trading, setups, market outlook and other ideas. Looking forward to learning from the discussions, as well as occasionally sharing my own analysis, market scenarios as well as trades taken.

For proper introduction, some brief background: I look for extended intraday / overnight price moves, off specific trade setups/patterns that allow ~15-20 pips on average, for a minimum of 1:5 risk/reward. In other words - if it goes 30-40 pips, it's not a baggable profit for me, yet. If it goes 50-60 or more, will start locking in something, depending on the market. But, I'm geared towards maximizing profits and am always making an effort to avoid "clicking out" positions as much as possible - even if the targeted risk/reward is hit, or even if price is reaching the next possible major S/R area - instead, always attempting to trail appriopriately and letting the market run further, or take me out if it needs to.

So by nature, I'm more of an intraday / overnight swing trader - holding positions from several hours up to few days, if necessary. However - would like to grow skill to hold for even longer distance moves when appropriate, since I know very well that's were the bulk of the bank is made. But more so, I want to get better at filtering trades, to be able to take higher odds trade setups and decrease the currently excessive number of losing trades. I don't trade frequetly - a number of trades per week - but still meeting extended series of losses frequently, which have left me a breakeven trader mostly, or only modestly profitable, over longer periods of time, so far. So something there that I'm reaching towards - less trades per week / month, more quality trades, which also means more opportunities missed / passed along, of course. And - holding for larger gains, when appriopriate under given market conditions.

Technically - I'm using a few different higher timeframes, from daily down to 1H, to come up with specific technical price clusters (made up of confluence/synergy of fibs+SR+measured moves+TL mostly) or "key zones" that are marked up on my 4H and 1H "anchor" charts. These areas together with basic wave structure analysis, serve as a base for my trades taken. I look for trade opportunities off the "trigger" eg the trade chart, which usually is a 5-minute chart, or occasionally 3-minute, if there's more volatility. Basically what I look for there, are either extreme swing reversals and/or breaks of consolidation patterns, preferrably toghether with some clearly visible wave structure be it 3-wave of 5-wave.

As initial contribution, hope you don't mind, posting a multiweek outlook and one scenario that I'm currently anticipating in EURUSD. Despite the described upside scenario, I have a bearish outlook in the multi-month perspective and do believe we'll head for 2700 or under in the longer term. However, shorter term, I think the market needs to gather some more fuel, as there is a bit too much bearisness within the crowd - also, technicals are a little tilted towards the upside, more.

However, I'm not trading the scenario until confirmation given, and looking to keep trade attempts inside the constructed zones. The key zones serve as reaction/expansion areas, where price shouldn't stick around long and either they make either extended continuation moves, or also, frequently tend to reverse, so they serve equally as targets.

Great thread here. Looking forward to the great interaction. Best trading.

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Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #795,009
  • May 6, 2013 11:09am May 6, 2013 11:09am
Just an opinion - and i know it sound ridiculous , but this could really turn to 1.31474 ( Which is Mid 30 of April & 1st of may ). The line hold once , so if today it stays above it - at least 1.30970 ( 23% Fib ) may at least be reached.
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"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #795,010
  • May 6, 2013 11:18am May 6, 2013 11:18am
Quoting RsX
Despite the described upside scenario, I have a bearish outlook in the multi-month perspective and do believe we'll head for 2700 or under in the longer term. However, shorter term, I think the market needs to gather some more fuel, as there is a bit too much bearisness within the crowd - also, technicals are a little tilted towards the upside, more. {image}
Hi,

I've just started posting here myself (more out of boredom than anything..boredom, that bane of the trader's life) but to be honest from what I've seen here today I am afraid, at least to me, the postings are mostly quite immature and lacking in any usefulness whatsoever.


What technicals are suggesting upside to you? The best I can see now is a neutral picture; we are in the middle of something of a triangular formation but that itself is within a bear flag, and struggling to stay within it. But yes, bearishness is everywhere. I find it hard to be a bear when there are so many bears about.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #795,011
  • May 6, 2013 11:25am May 6, 2013 11:25am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi, I've just started posting here myself (more out of boredom than anything..boredom, that bane of the trader's life) but to be honest from what I've seen here today I am afraid, at least to me, the postings are mostly quite immature and lacking in any usefulness whatsoever. What technicals are suggesting upside to you? The best I can see now is a neutral picture; we are in the middle of something of a triangular formation but that itself is within a bear flag, and struggling to stay within it. But yes, bearishness is everywhere. I find...

With equities trading in nose bleed territory it does seem path of least resistance for eu and other risk currencies is up. Hard to buy at current levels for me.. I want a clean break of .3000 - wash out the stops. Then short equities (es, ym ..) and long eu . The correlation has broken down - play is return of correlation.
  • #795,012
  • May 6, 2013 11:33am May 6, 2013 11:33am
Quoting demoreal
Well - I'll go for a long this time at 1.3058

your reading the price action correctly as 1.3058 was the top of the Support and 1.3053 the bottom and as i said to someone on here holding out for the 1.3050 area today they may not get it despiute peple trying for the pivot at 1.3045 because the Support goes down from 1.3058 to 1.3053 the bottom... nice pick.. i bought too.... .... within a 5 pip radius
  • #795,013
  • May 6, 2013 11:44am May 6, 2013 11:44am
Quoting mediaboy
{quote} With equities trading in nose bleed territory it does seem path of least resistance for eu and other risk currencies is up. Hard to buy at current levels for me.. I want a clean break of .3000 - wash out the stops. Then short equities (es, ym ..) and long eu . The correlation has broken down - play is return of correlation.
I'm trying very hard not to short ES. I was doing that for a while (selling calls but also puts) and it was only the fact that I was selling options rather than the underlying that stopped me from losing my shirt.
This is a very strong bull in equities. I think we probably pause at 1620 but there are easier shorts out there I think (gold, for example).

I am tiptoeing back into long EURUSD here as the chart stabilises, but supported with short puts and short calls either side. If it all goes pear-shaped I'll probably just sell more options against my position. TBH I still think we could go nowhere (1.30-1.32) for weeks.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #795,014
  • May 6, 2013 12:09pm May 6, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting RsX
However - would like to grow skill to hold for even longer distance moves when appropriate, since I know very well that's were the bulk of the bank is made. But more so, I want to get better at filtering trades, to be able to take higher odds trade setups and decrease the currently excessive number of losing trades. I don't trade frequetly - a number of trades per week - but still meeting extended series of losses frequently, which have left me a breakeven trader mostly, or only modestly profitable, over longer periods of time, so far. So something...
Hi RSX,

So a little advice what I have learned from the market because I look to Swing/Position trade. One must understand the market will do what it wants to do. If you find an entry you are comfortable with, give that trade some room to breathe if you are in profit. It may go 100 pips your direction then swigh 75 pips retracement before it goes back in your direction again. Once you are in the money nicely I would suggest locking in a couple pips of profit and just let her go. The hardest thing about doing this is learning when to close the trade, YOu need to really identify the trend which you are trading. There are the following trends:

1. Intrad day (1 min - 15 min charts)
2. Day Trending (30 min - h1 charts)
3. Swing trade (h4 Charts +)
4. Swing trading + (h4 - daily chart)

SOmething you might want to do and this requires patience. There is a reason we can not hold out like banks initially, this is because we need deep pockets just as they do.

My suggestion to you is: Get rid of the indicators - less clutter and pure price. You miss the best optimal move when you use indicators.
Secondly: Cut your trade size in half, and double your SL on the initial trade till you get into some decent profit to lock in a couple pips.

Identify the volatility of the TF you are looking at and adjust your trade accordingly.

Hope this helps

Also, all my swing trades that I want to grow into position I enter on 1 minute charts.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #795,015
  • May 6, 2013 12:13pm May 6, 2013 12:13pm
Because of all the beautiful mathematical relationships of this top and the top of 1 feb
You can see how we didnt get any short squeeze at that top and check out how similar they look
And found time and price squaring also last week
It is simply beutiful

Would not be surprised if we get drop tomorrow 5th day after top just like 1 feb top

Started drop on 7th feb and tomorrow is 7th May

I know this is out of the box but damn its so perfect
  • #795,016
  • May 6, 2013 12:55pm May 6, 2013 12:55pm
Hit the top 5mn res @ 1,3080.

Sellers here may want 1,305x support...but a break up is for 1,3095-1,3100
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #795,017
  • May 6, 2013 1:02pm May 6, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting kuroro001
Hit the top 5mn res @ 1,3080. Sellers here may want 1,305x support...but a break up is for 1,3095-1,3100
  • #795,018
  • May 6, 2013 1:07pm May 6, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting namitak007
{quote}
It's a dangerous area...both for bulls and bears...time will tell.
I'll add shorts when PA stops rising
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #795,019
  • May 6, 2013 1:08pm May 6, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting goods
{quote} Hi RSX, So a little advice what I have learned from the market because I look to Swing/Position trade. One must understand the market will do what it wants to do. If you find an entry you are comfortable with, give that trade some room to breathe if you are in profit. It may go 100 pips your direction then swigh 75 pips retracement before it goes back in your direction again. Once you are in the money nicely I would suggest locking in a couple pips of profit and just let her go. The hardest thing about doing this is learning when to close...

RSX if you are day trading then you should not be using more than ideally a 2 pip stop.... when yur accurate you can narrow price down to 5 pips and just take it or you can wait for some confirmation of say a 5 minute chart.

Also I day trade and swing trade.. i use all time frames.. but a 4 hour trade to me is a spot trade, forget using 5 -15 min trade that to me is a scalp, a swing trade is a couple of days or longer... I scale in and scale out and at major areas i hedge with added contracts so if i am long say 5 contracts.... then i may hedge that and put an extra 2 on short.. so i am profiting the extra 2 contracts and taking the 5 in the hedge before relonging.

I suggest start looking at longer timeframes do your analysis from monthlky down to 4 hour, look at hourly for possible entries... then narrow it all down to a 15 min.... myself i just look at the timeframe and know where its going to get supported by the wicks on another timeframe and normally take it... but like i said i am starting to see how easy it is to use confirmation and i use confirmation when price is on a run away train etc
  • #795,020
  • May 6, 2013 1:12pm May 6, 2013 1:12pm
I've never seen this number of prophets but on forexfactory.their predictions never move me cos many seem to be amateurs
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