Longed 1.307 SL 1.304 TP 1.3110
- #794,946
- May 6, 2013 9:41am May 6, 2013 9:41am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2009 | 16,693 Posts
- #794,948
- May 6, 2013 9:44am May 6, 2013 9:44am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Guys, I have question for you. You can save it for the weekend, since we are in NY trading hours 
. The question is as simple as it is hard.
"Do you see 1,4 possible @ October after this ratecut?"
May be silly question, I know, but it is the one I am asking myself each and every minute of day since Thursday. As you know, I study those stupid cycles and right now cycle is pointing to 1,4. And I cant trade when fundamentals doesnt match technicals, so am kinda mid term screwed.
I will give you one reason why I think this may happen. It really is just an idea, it doesnt have to work. But I think banks in Eurozone are experiencing liquidity squeeze and private sector @ Europe is still in too much debt. So in effect what happens after ratecut, is that those banks are going to try to fill in holes in liquidity, so going to borrow cash via ELA or MRO not to lend to enterprises, but to invest in bonds and equities in Eurozone. Enterprises dont need more debt and bank needs to make cash somehow (not mentioning conspiration where ECB conditioned ratecut by saying banks have to buy bonds after). So in effect EUR wont flow into market and it wont result in weakness, cause it is going to be stuck in banking sector. Moreover, foreign investors will want to take part of the rally in european equities and bonds, and therefore will buy EUR.
I know, it may not work and it is actually not macroeconomic wise. But in current market situation, it may be the case. I will be glad if you guys think of this scheme and tell me what you think. Not right now, take your time, I am still here.
T
. The question is as simple as it is hard."Do you see 1,4 possible @ October after this ratecut?"
May be silly question, I know, but it is the one I am asking myself each and every minute of day since Thursday. As you know, I study those stupid cycles and right now cycle is pointing to 1,4. And I cant trade when fundamentals doesnt match technicals, so am kinda mid term screwed.
I will give you one reason why I think this may happen. It really is just an idea, it doesnt have to work. But I think banks in Eurozone are experiencing liquidity squeeze and private sector @ Europe is still in too much debt. So in effect what happens after ratecut, is that those banks are going to try to fill in holes in liquidity, so going to borrow cash via ELA or MRO not to lend to enterprises, but to invest in bonds and equities in Eurozone. Enterprises dont need more debt and bank needs to make cash somehow (not mentioning conspiration where ECB conditioned ratecut by saying banks have to buy bonds after). So in effect EUR wont flow into market and it wont result in weakness, cause it is going to be stuck in banking sector. Moreover, foreign investors will want to take part of the rally in european equities and bonds, and therefore will buy EUR.
I know, it may not work and it is actually not macroeconomic wise. But in current market situation, it may be the case. I will be glad if you guys think of this scheme and tell me what you think. Not right now, take your time, I am still here
.T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #794,949
- May 6, 2013 9:45am May 6, 2013 9:45am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #794,950
- May 6, 2013 9:46am May 6, 2013 9:46am
- | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts
Guys, I have question for you. You can save it for the weekend, since we are in NY trading hours
- #794,951
- May 6, 2013 9:46am May 6, 2013 9:46am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2009 | 16,693 Posts
- #794,952
- May 6, 2013 9:48am May 6, 2013 9:48am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2013 | 1,307 Posts
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
- #794,953
- May 6, 2013 9:49am May 6, 2013 9:49am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #794,955
- May 6, 2013 9:50am May 6, 2013 9:50am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: attitude is everything.. | 1,492 Posts
Patience is a virtue...
{quote} i too closed at 130.69 and now waiting for the pullback to 1.3098 before shorting again... didn't take the long though... see bottom as 1.3045 bbut we watching closely 1.3058/53 but at 1.3045 thats the pivot and bottom of the apex i have lined up.. 69 was top of the apex
- #794,957
- May 6, 2013 9:51am May 6, 2013 9:51am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
Guys, I have question for you. You can save it for the weekend, since we are in NY trading hours
- #794,959
- May 6, 2013 9:54am May 6, 2013 9:54am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2009 | 16,693 Posts
- #794,960
- May 6, 2013 9:55am May 6, 2013 9:55am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
{quote} Well I guess it's a post Draghi effect so I am too buying! Just TP at 1.311
Check m5....lower lower, lower closes...all red.
And you are asking for "just" a tp of 1,3110 ...Which is almost 60 pips away.
1,307x-1,308x formed resistance.
I'll keep selling rallies...But it's only me, and i like being wrong
COT: The precious data ignored