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Sonic R. System

  • #48,021
  • May 4, 2013 3:05pm May 4, 2013 3:05pm
Hi Tah and others, I would be much obliged if you took a look at the attached pic.
One of the most obvious pairs to do PVSRA on for me this week was UJ. I think many was on the first 100 pip bull move on thursday 2/5. But then the market started to range around the 98.000 level just to take of the next day 3/5 for another major + 100 bull move. What signs did you see, if any, that signaled the 3/5 move?

Many thanks and Best Regards

Waez


http://i44.tinypic.com/8zfgwy.gif
  • #48,022
  • Edited 3:49pm May 4, 2013 3:35pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting bogdan89
{quote} My opinion is that any trader who hasn't the funds to sustain a big drawdown shouldn't get a scout at the first sign of MM's becoming bulls/bears, the GU this week is the best example. If you started adding scouts at the first bear sign you had a problem. I did it and I lost alot. Wait at least a few days before you get in the trade, so the MM's can get their business where they want. If the big movement started and you weren't in the trade then well... too bad. It's better to lost the opportunity than lose pips. Overall this is maybe the...
PVSRA, From Bottom to Top or Top to Bottom,....or Both?

I agree with bogdan89 100%. If the MMs are bears and pushing the price up for better and better prices, and more and more shorting, it stands to reason that we Sonicers will be better off if we start our shorting as near the the end of this process as possible. Unfortunately, we can never know in advance when the MMs will initiate their run for profits, but maybe that is where inter-day swing analysis might help in the overall PVSRA. We could also attempt to go long on the road up, and switch to shorts for the bear MMs run for profits.

I can only pray that in time, and with more Sonicers embracing PVSRA, we will have a clear set of steps to the analysis and a sensible set of strategies based on the PVSRA results. So, any Sonicer that is trying something different, and finding that it works, please spell it out so others can try it too. All we can do, now that we have the bull by the horns, is to hang on and experiment and discover what works best and what doesn't.

-tah
  • #48,023
  • May 4, 2013 4:00pm May 4, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting Waez
Hi Tah and others, I would be much obliged if you took a look at the attached pic. One of the most obvious pairs to do PVSRA on for me this week was UJ. I think many was on the first 100 pip bull move on thursday 2/5. But then the market started to range around the 98.000 level just to take of the next day 3/5 for another major + 100 bull move. What signs did you see, if any, that signaled the 3/5 move? Many thanks and Best Regards Waez {image}
I for one, don't think I can help you on this one beyond what I said about UJ on Friday well before the USD releases.

Each time I look at these YEN pairs, I see definate PVSRA determinations that the MMs are bears. Yet the MMs continue to kick the price up another rung, rung after rung. In the big picture, do we suppose that after more than nine months of a rip roaring run up the MMs simply have long positions to get rid of that are just too huge? Are the MMs no longer bulls but bears, as PVSRA indicates, but continuing bullish PA in order to suck in longs so the MMs have someone to pass their unwanted longs off to? If the MMs have untold billions of longs tied up in YEN pairs, and are no longer bulls, they simply cannot afford to let PA look like anything but extremely bullish PA. Otherwise, the charade will be up, nobody will want to go long on YEN pairs, and on the long positions the MMs still hold they will lose their shirts!.....and their fancy cars, women, mansions and yachts to boot!

I think PVSRA is correct. I think the MMs are continuing to PUMP & DUMP, over and over and over. And if I am correct, the MMs will continue this until they have vacated their long positions to other folks that will end up being the ones that get screwed.

-tah
  • #48,024
  • May 5, 2013 4:10am May 5, 2013 4:10am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} they will lose their shirts!.....and their fancy cars, women, mansions and yachts to boot!
The first part might happen, but the last part never will. They will just contact their
politician buddies and get whatever amount of bailout they need!

Yes, I admit I've become quite cynical since the events of 2008. And rightly so!

That was the first time I woke up and realized the "game" has been rigged from the start.

Quoth the raven, "never more"

  • #48,025
  • Edited 5:38am May 5, 2013 4:53am | Edited 5:38am
I gave a guarded the volumes of EU D1 of 05/02/2013 on the FXCM platform (no Metatrader), are so high that I think there is a mistake, as you see it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #48,026
  • May 5, 2013 5:14am May 5, 2013 5:14am
Quoting Apollo14
I gave a guarded the volumes of D1 of 05/02/2013 on the FXCM platform (no Metatrader), are so high that I think there is a mistake, as you see it? {image}
I think it is just ur eyes..
Attached Image



Sonic
  • #48,027
  • May 5, 2013 6:27am May 5, 2013 6:27am
With regard to sustaining the large draw down questions I have twice looked to hedge my eur jpy scout shorts. By going long as this market has aggressively pushed onwards and upwards over Thursday and Friday has helped protect shorts and keep the account in the game (demo account I have to stress!) .
Then as the bearish MM's begin their eventual major run down (who knows when) these longs would be exited at their entry point (automated to ensure break even), keeping you in the game until then .
I believe entering and exiting longs classic sonic style would be more profitable than simple hedging, but am just not comfortable entering and exiting multiple times with so many shorts already open and not knowing the extent of this bullish run and when the next brisk and brutal down move starts
The magnitude of this entered long would need to ideally be enough to cover most of the short scouts. Eg 10 x 0.01 short scout lots covered by 1 x 0.1 lot long . Entering the long at maybe the qtr point above the last aggressive north push ? Not an exact science just wanted to share this thought . Apologies for no chart
  • #48,028
  • May 5, 2013 7:25am May 5, 2013 7:25am
Quoting revoli
{quote} This is an excellent and important question that deserves some discussion. For what it's worth after a couple of weeks at this particular strategy my current view is that if you can definitively say you are on the wrong side then you exit. ... Give it 5 months then see how this has gone. All in my humble opinion as an amateur PVSRA student. Teacher may have a better view.
I do agree with this view. Yes most of the time market will stall after 200-300pips move, however there are countless times when market goes for a lot more than that. Best example is beginning of this year GU move, and of course the recent JPY moves.

See the chart of GU early this year bear. Only 1 notable occasion the pair range (before 2nd leg move down).
Even on the April 2012, GU went down almost 1000 pips without any big retracement, disregarding all support and resistant.

Take a look at euro-cable, or euro aud on daily/weekly chart, you'll see the same big moves on many occasions.

How does PVSRA analysis stand againts over 600 - 1000 pips moves, when pair currency blasted through any notable support and resistant?

TAH is a very experience trader, and I haven't been here long enough to see how he handles trades during those big moves.
So far i'm amazed and at the same time can't keep thinking how crazy these scout trades are, what if there's another war, another terrorist attack, etc.

Personally I know a guy who owned a hedge fund making tons of money, and went bankrupt in 1 day during 9/11 attack, I think he said the bank
closed all trading activities.

Of course you can say, after a combine of say 2000-3000 pips lost, well just close all the trades, after all it's only a small portion of the trading account.
or you can say in hindsight, if there was a big news, well we won't miss it right?
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  • #48,029
  • May 5, 2013 9:16am May 5, 2013 9:16am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post6658470




Inserted Video



Sonic
  • #48,030
  • Edited 11:49am May 5, 2013 11:28am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting Apollo14
I gave a guarded the volumes of EU D1 of 05/02/2013 on the FXCM platform (no Metatrader), are so high that I think there is a mistake, as you see it? {image}
EU:

Your chart shows large volume for Thursday in the FXCM broker's world of forex. Alpari (US) also shows notable volume in their world of forex on that day. This volume reflects trading down off the highs, so most likely it is saying the MMs are bears. Alpari show similarly high volumes in the exact same area many days earlier.

My take on this is, and as PVSRA has been indicating right along, the MMs are bears. They've been pumping the price to suck in longs so they could add shorts; a liquidity play, and one that will leave longs holding the bag in the end.

-tah
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,031
  • Edited 12:22pm May 5, 2013 12:04pm | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting Lique
{quote} I do agree with this view. Yes most of the time market will stall after 200-300pips move, however there are countless times when market goes for a lot more than that. Best example is beginning of this year GU move, and of course the recent JPY moves. See the chart of GU early this year bear. Only 1 notable occasion the pair range (before 2nd leg move down). Even on the April 2012, GU went down almost 1000 pips without any big retracement, disregarding all support and resistant. Take a look at euro-cable, or euro aud on daily/weekly chart,...
MMs Can Afford to be "Wrong" Longer!

That simple statement says it all. Bear MMs can put on bullish PA for days, weeks, months, for a very long time I suppose, if the've a mind to do so for reasons they are privy to and we are not; reasons that say building short will end up making fortures, but only if others can be swindled into the market on the long side to create the liquidity needed so the MMs can build short,.....at higher and higher prices! What a deal! Big Money makes money by manipulating market prices.

How long could such a "play" go? I suppose it depends on: 1) how big the stakes are, 2) how much of their credit the MMs are willing to throw into it, and 3) how long opposite side traders can be fooled into supplying the needed liquidity.

The YEN Sting
The YEN pairs are an example, I think. The rip roaring run up has been going on for the better part of a year. Now (using GJ as example) prices are at significant S&R levels. Are the MMs still holding billiions of YEN longs at these heights? If so, what will they do in order to be able to close out their long positions and go short? Are other traders weary of the climb and wary of the MMs? Will these other traders become more difficult to sucker in on the long side, making it increasingly more difficult for the MMs to pass off their longs to these traders? Or, have the MMs managed to shed their longs quite some time ago, and are now building shorts while keeping up the bullish charade to sucker in longs? If so, how much longer, as bears, will the MMs invest to pump up prices in order to get longs in and give the bear MMs the liquidity to continue to build shorts at higher and higher prices. What a deal! You can search this thread for more comments on "YEN Sting".

-tah
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  • #48,032
  • May 5, 2013 1:02pm May 5, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting Lique
{quote} I do agree with this view. Yes most of the time market will stall after 200-300pips move, however there are countless times when market goes for a lot more than that. Best example is beginning of this year GU move, and of course the recent JPY moves. See the chart of GU early this year bear. Only 1 notable occasion the pair range (before 2nd leg move down). Even on the April 2012, GU went down almost 1000 pips without any big retracement, disregarding all support and resistant. Take a look at euro-cable, or euro aud on daily/weekly chart,...
What stops anyone from putting an emergency SL for each entry for x no of pips if they want to ? Lique, you´re showing a daily chart - lower TF M15, M5 and M1 would help to give a better view of the markets intention. And then there´s Tah`s reminder of just trading the pairs that gives a clear view.
Compare UJ and EJ below, to me UJ is much clearer:

http://i44.tinypic.com/70w64m.gif

http://i42.tinypic.com/29ge5bt.gif

Regards

Waez
  • #48,033
  • May 5, 2013 1:47pm May 5, 2013 1:47pm
Anyone knows what are Take profit and exhaustion volumes on chart? Definition, indicator?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #48,034
  • May 5, 2013 2:03pm May 5, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting mima
Anyone knows what are Take profit and exhaustion volumes on chart? Definition, indicator?
You'll find all answers in Post#1. Read thoroughly, and all links thoroughly. Follow thoroughly all directions you come across in your reading.
  • #48,035
  • May 5, 2013 2:22pm May 5, 2013 2:22pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} You'll find all answers in Post#1. Read thoroughly, and all links thoroughly. Follow thoroughly all directions you come across in your reading.
I though that was my job to tell them !
  • #48,036
  • May 5, 2013 2:33pm May 5, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting saiftauheed
{quote} I though that was my job to tell them !
Yes it is, still is, always was......where were you?
  • #48,037
  • May 5, 2013 2:53pm May 5, 2013 2:53pm
sorry professor my girlfriend left me about a week ago whom i loved truly and madly so i was in a state of shock for a week, i am back now
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Yes it is, still is, always was......where were you?
  • #48,038
  • May 5, 2013 2:56pm May 5, 2013 2:56pm
after going through most of the posts pr tah one thing i would like to know there aren't a lot of waves formed every week for classic sonic r setup the PA seems to move impulsively in one direction without forming a proper wave and what i understand from the system that waves are a must no waves no trade, what dto do about it professor ?
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Yes it is, still is, always was......where were you?
  • #48,039
  • May 5, 2013 3:09pm May 5, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting saiftauheed
after going through most of the posts pr tah one thing i would like to know there aren't a lot of waves formed every week for classic sonic r setup the PA seems to move impulsively in one direction without forming a proper wave and what i understand from the system that waves are a must no waves no trade, what dto do about it professor ? {quote}
PA Waves Limit Classics

The prescribed higher HLs or lower HLs (per manual) is indeed a very important part of the Classic setup. Sometimes they are plentiful, sometimes not. It is not a failing of the parameters for a Classic setup, but the value of these parameters when market conditions do not cooperate. Don't trade.

Are you looking for a trading method that always, under all market conditions, will signal a trade and has lower risk than most methods, is simple and effective? Let me know when you find it.

Do you want to trade more of the "moves"? Enter the Scout trade. But this can get out of hand! Hence PVSRA, to try and improve the selection of both Classics and Scouts.

-tah
  • #48,040
  • May 5, 2013 3:17pm May 5, 2013 3:17pm
professor tah but there isn't any manual for scout trade i really don't know how do you enter or exit based on scout . i guess you never created a manual but have distributed the scout trade entries all over the thread now finding all those is one hell of a job !
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PA Waves Limit Classics The prescribed higher HLs or lower HLs (per manual) is indeed a very important part of the Classic setup. Sometimes they are plentiful, sometimes not. It is not a failing of the parameters for a Classic setup, but the value of these parameters when market conditions do not cooperate. Don't trade. Are you looking for a trading method that always, under all market conditions, will signal a trade and has lower risk than most methods, is simple and effective? Let me know when you find it. Do you want to trade more of...
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