USD/JPY Discussion

Good luck with that.

Don't know what to do now. If you look on H4, there is a bullish pin bar formed. The major trend is up. But still - the price isn't at the important demand around 96.625 and also there is a bearish hidden divergence. I'm probably not going to take this setup... but would you?

If in doubt, stay out. It's end of the month, and end of the day and a big indecision pattern on 15 minute chart. You get paid for waiting.

I am new in trading. Can you please tell me how do you know Important demand price is 96.62? And also tell me what do you think it would go up or down?

If you zoom out the chart you will se that 96.625 is important support line, and this area is a demand zone for me - if price will get there, we will be "low enough" to start buying again

Gidday Traders

Any wise owls know what YEN is up to

Still holding longs

lucky been sitting on them for months

really do not these retraces

Don't call it luck. Sitting tight and not taking profits is one of the hardest things for traders to do.

April's 38.2% Fib and 97 are 11 pips apart and that is right where we retested Monday's low and made a slightly higher low. Will be clearer at U.S. close but we could be witnessing the monthly low right now before another wave upwards to 100+

Liked to participate in this UJ thread to show my admiration for the pair very discipline movement if want to describe UJ as a person. Traders mentality who trade it is reflected in UJ movement. Very accurate moves respecting Fibo's, supports and resistances to the deepest detail, no fancy moves and disrespect of levels like what is seen in other cross pairs like EJ and GJ. When UJ goes on downtrend it does that perfectly, when it changes to uptrend, shows you that very perfectly in an open eye breakout and vice versa. This UJ thread must get more participation, and ideas discussions more frequently than is currently.
I see UJ support points before the NFP are 97 and 95.90-00, a positive NFP number may spike the pair to test 100 after removing the 98.65 resistance.

[quote=J.Clinton;6650091]Liked to participate in this UJ thread to show my admiration for the pair very discipline movement if want to describe UJ as a person. Traders mentality who trade it is reflected in UJ movement. Very accurate moves respecting Fibo's, supports and resistances to the deepest detail, no fancy moves and disrespect of levels like what is seen in other cross pairs like EJ and GJ. When UJ goes on downtrend it does that perfectly, when it changes to uptrend, shows you that very perfectly in an open eye breakout and vice versa. This UJ thread must get more participation, and ideas discussions more frequently than is currently. I see UJ support points before the NFP are 97 and 95.90-00, a positive NFP number may spike the pair to test 100 after removing the 98.65 resistance.[/Q


Agree

wish it would remain bullish in long term I have longs opened around 98. What should be my stop loss?

I am also long at 98...

It has touched 97.10 a few times the past few days but always bounces up

Im long at 97.09 also. Expecting this downtrend to reverse and test those highs again.

Short@ 97.34
SL 97.7
TP 96.6

I think we're still in for one more down move before she's ready to head up again. Even though we keep bouncing the 97 level it can't seem to make any progress topside.

96.6 corresponds with the March 11 high, which is where I'll be looking for bullish momentum to go long.

Stand firm to the quoted, valid till NFP

Gidday

Been lucky in this YEN pair over the years.

But every now again it will turn on you an bite you on the ass

my target is still the 100

so I will have to suck it up for a few days

until the YEN Masters warm up the printing machine

Agreed.. I have long UJ AJ at all support area.. haha

Bullish view, were in a reaction of the the two failed 100 attempts, momentum has slowed significantly. Last two week has been USD weakness rather then Yen strength, you see this across the boards. Public specs are mostly trapped around 98-100, evident from a pub broker like oanda Open position tool, I suspect lots of public specs are trapped up there and potentially burned soon.

Bullish weekly support coming @ 96/95.9x area I feel this will be critical area, bullish support, and bounce likely. If there is clean break of this support there is strong technical Bearish signal, and i sense Pro bear specs will 'jump on".

Bullish Fundamental, i have not seen conditions change since the Week of Mar 31st, BOJ officially backing asset purchases, accelerating this par upwards, the uptrend should be still intact, however Technicals may forewarn disaster before fundies, from experience. Japan is still printing lots of money.

U.S. Jobless claims coming up, I 't think its unlikely we get a extreme number that will break 96, but you never know, and there could always be a combination of unfavorable news.

Bears, the longer it takes for bulls to get another whack @ 100 the more likely your chances from a technical perspective for a short term down turn, potentially for a protracted downturn and 100 being top. I am not aware of major fundie changes to support a protracted bearish move, but anything can happen, and you may get major unexpected favorable news tomorrow fueling crashes down. If 100 gets breached on the first pierce, I'd advise you all run for the hills, the sheer Short covering, and bullish frenzy, momentum can easily pop this pair to 101,102,103 in days.

I would like to re-assure my fellow bulls trapped up North, we had a very good run from 93-99x, the trend has not only been up, the acceleration went into overdrive, in that time-frame. It is therefore natural, for price action to take a breather, re-assess, pro specs to cash in, before a further push. I do not feel the last two attempts @ 100 to be "real" pushes, but merely a over-extension, of greed crazed bulls trying to gain more points from an already 700 point drive. You bulls wait for a good break of 96, then run! not now!

How Significant is this divergence?

FYI, during a large consolidation phase momentum drops away and indicates divergence. But a consolidation can also mean the opposite of what apparent divergence is showing. So it may mean little at this stage.

NFP tomorrow, my feeling is that the printed number will undershoot the expected number. Result of that should be short-term USD strength and resultant lift on UJ. ADP claimant reports are indicating fewer jobs created recently.