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Sonic R. System

  • #47,741
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:29am Apr 30, 2013 10:29am
Quoting earthca
{quote} TAH, with full respect of your efforts and amazing result, I am wondering whether you would brief our newbie how to 1 trade with thin volume, how thin is thin in order to handle drawdown, 2 when to cut loss, I am sure sooner or later I will be wrong to accumulate on the opposite of MM direction. When this happen, how to exit these trades. Without managing above two items properly, newbie will found this trading be destructive.
Dam TAH. that was too many scout. i think GU will raise around RWH. The PA is aboue dragon too. Dun u think it is bullish? in Daily chart. I know there will be rebound. but u never know how far it will spike up
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Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #47,742
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:32am Apr 30, 2013 10:32am
Quoting earthca
{quote} TAH, with full respect of your efforts and amazing result, I am wondering whether you would brief our newbie how to 1 trade with thin volume, how thin is thin in order to handle drawdown, 2 when to cut loss, I am sure sooner or later I will be wrong to accumulate on the opposite of MM direction. When this happen, how to exit these trades. Without managing above two items properly, newbie will found this trading be destructive.
JRissa posted within the last week that he trades light enough that he can withstand a 1000 pips drawdown. This gets to the point of the matter. By trading very, very light relative to account size a trader can withstand enough pips to last thru the period where they are on the opposite side of the MMs. I've been there, and I know how this feels. Not nice. Nevertheless, 99+% of the time the trades come to profit again. And you make enough on the profitable ones to walk away smiling those few times the market heavily strikes back.

You are asking me at what point should the trader bail out. Each trader has to decide what their money management strategy will be, revise it if in practice it shows it can be improved, etc.

For me, now with PVSRA the risks are reduced from the way I was trading Scouts. This is only my fifth week with PVSRA and it is a bit early for me to be absolute about money management to the point of steering anyone else in one direction or another.

-tah
  • #47,743
  • Apr 30, 2013 10:41am Apr 30, 2013 10:41am
Remember, This is NFP Week!

This is a perfect week to begin the week cycling prices up/down a bit, confuse the hell out of folks, then ram prices skywards to get everyone excited to enter and to be long, and then finish the week with a huge crash of prices.

So, step back and take another look at the likes of AU, EU, GU.....

Will the week end up or down? Undoubtedly the MMs made money on the "Up" today. Do you suppose they'll do all sorts of range breaking shit and continue pushing? Or, do you think they will do the easier thing and not break ranges, just.........pull the plugs!

I don't know, but the week ain't over and it should be interesting.

-tah
  • #47,744
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:04am Apr 30, 2013 11:04am
Prof Tah would you please check your Inbox?
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #47,745
  • Edited 11:34am Apr 30, 2013 11:07am | Edited 11:34am
Exacting Entries!

Don't need 'em. PVSRA indicates if the MMs are bulls or bears. Bull MMs can, and do, put on bear PA. Bear MMs can, and do, put on bull PA. This PA can, at times as we have seen today, be extreme! So what? This is one of the strategies we should always be expecting the MMs to pull off in order to create liquidity to get more of their own orders filled!

It is the way of the market, traders. If you don't like it, get out of trading.

On the other hand, you can use any move the MMs make to advantage you the same way they take advantage of it. Build a position along with the MMs. It is as simple as that, but you must restrict your size of individual trades from however you are currently trading. If you trade in lots, then trade in mini-lots, etc.

You don't need your entries to be exacting, only in the same ballpark! Making exacting entries is impossible except by pure chance, and it doesn't often happen, so don't worry about it. Just get your position built with individual entries at decent locations. The skill here is to manage entries so you do not run out of those smaller bullets before the MMs run out of running the price. We will never succeed at being perfect at this simply because while PVSRA indicates if the MMs are bulls or bears, we can never know when the MMs will stop running prices and initiate their run for profits.

Trade small sizes, very small relative to account size. Trade light and don't waste your smaller bullets too early in the game. Don't worry about exacting entries!

Frankly, I still stay on the record that I do not yet recommend anyone trade like this, though I understand the temptation to do so. If you try it, you do so at your own risk. So if you do, you better demo it with an amount of money you might really start with, and see what tweaks you need to make to your trading in order to survive! You need experience with this in order to come to the knowledge, based on an account size, how small trade sizes need to be, how many you can have open at the same time, and where you need to terminate a trade gone bad. I will repeat what I said in a post above. JRissa recently stated he trades small enough that he can be down one thousand pips. Anyone trading this way needs to think about this and understand the reasoning. It is better to blow one or more demo accounts until you truly understand, than to blow your real money right off the bat!

-tah
  • #47,746
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:27am Apr 30, 2013 11:27am
Sometimes the trees don't let you see the forest

Hi guys, one more time, I agree with TAH in his market analysis. And this is why:

GU: See image attached

If you analyze small charts like 15m or 1m, you have to pay attention not only to the PA, you need to analyze the volume. And not only if it is high or low, also where it's higher or lower. The place is a very important part of the volume analysis. In this case, we can see the volume is always higher at the tops. And in the last top around 1.555 the volume was one more time higher at the tops, this time with a huge volume. You need to look the relative volume, not only if one candle has big or low volume.

If you see the daily chart, you can see a perfect channel and now it touched the top of the channel, just where the volume was incredible high. Curious...

EU: See image attached

Another example about why do we have to look as well higher timeframes. Take a look at the weekly chart and you could see a potential shoulder-head-shoulder pattern. If we go into lower timeframes, again, we have to analyze PA, S/R zone and volume. Where is the volume higher? How big is the volume against other candles, top or bottoms? Again, the answer is the same. Higher volume at the tops.

-------------------------

This is from the technical point of view. From the fundamental one, we have TWO SUPER IMPORTANT EVENTS this week. US NFP, which is the most important data in the month, and the ECB conference where they can announce a rate cut from 0,75 to 0,5. NFP had last month a big miss from 198k to 88k. It's hard to believe it will go lower than 88k and the forecast is 150k. And in Europe, the eurozone is showing weak data and the rumor about a rate cut is strong.

Of course, this is all speculation, because we never know what will happen and when it will happen. But to build short positions in AU, EU and GU seems logic and legit to me and I´m doing the same thing. Of course, these days you have to hold a big "drawdown" because it's normal that the MM's want to drive up the price to add shorts as high as possible.

And finally, remember, it's very important to mantain a good bank management because to build position can destroy your account if you don't respect your bankroll management.

Best, Tymedu.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #47,747
  • Apr 30, 2013 11:51am Apr 30, 2013 11:51am
Quoting Tymedu
Sometimes the trees don't let you see the forest Hi guys, one more time, I agree with TAH in his market analysis. And this is why: GU: See image attached If you analyze small charts like 15m or 1m, you have to pay attention not only to the PA, you need to analyze the volume. And not only if it is high or low, also where it's higher or lower. The place is a very important part of the volume analysis. In this case, we can see the volume is always higher at the tops. And in the last top around 1.555 the volume was one more time higher at the tops,...
Sonic R. System has Incredible Assets!

Master Sonicdeejay leads off the list, and the list is growing by the month. Some truly astute traders are taking up residence here: JRissa and Tymedu, just to mention a couple of the more recent ones. And I do not mean to leave anyone else out, which I probably have, so I apologize in advance. I just want to make this point. The Sonic R. System is elegantly simple and effective, both with Classic single entry trades and with Scout position building trades. This is a popular thread, and it is so because it doesn't just survive, it thrives! And folks are taking notice, pulling up stakes, and coming on over here. As a result, as time goes on another plus we Sonicers will enjoy is the sharing of knowlege by such astute traders that have become Sonicers too!

-tah
  • #47,748
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:04pm Apr 30, 2013 12:04pm
Nice analysis Tymedu, I agree, technical and fundamental BEFORE you start your day.With PVSRA you can bring your own wealth of experience and knowledge with you and tailor it to PVSRA (improve on it even).
I'm just getting my feet wet this week, decided on a theory at the beginning of the week and focusing solely on AJ so as I am not 'flitting' from one chart to another getting confused. I decided on AJ because of expected rate cut which I don't believe will happen and the Yen still has a great deal more devaluation to go clearly outlined by the government. So AUD has taken an undeserved dip.
I have been at nanningbob's and captain jack, bob uses pivots for entries and can also encounter drawdowns occasionally, a line in the sand for him is to only trade longs above the H4 240ema (= monthly 2ema) and shorts below. You have to have some general filters to give you an edge.
Isn't it obvious you can't play full lots up and down a chart with PVSRA?
TaH, well done with your 'ignore's. If you feel the method is not for you and is doomed to failure then go about your business, there are others here that want to cautiously and steadily learn, all the cynicism serves no purpose to the group, go on your way with a good feeling that you were right all along but don't air it out here. In the end you have to be happy with yourself and your system, good luck to you.
  • #47,749
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:13pm Apr 30, 2013 12:13pm
Hi guys
Someone who can comment VSA today before the breakout ?
Thank's
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500euroalgiorno.wordpress com
  • #47,750
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:20pm Apr 30, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting totty23
Nice analysis Tymedu, I agree, technical and fundamental BEFORE you start your day.With PVSRA you can bring your own wealth of experience and knowledge with you and tailor it to PVSRA (improve on it even). I'm just getting my feet wet this week, decided on a theory at the beginning of the week and focusing solely on AJ so as I am not 'flitting' from one chart to another getting confused. I decided on AJ because of expected rate cut which I don't believe will happen and the Yen still has a great deal more devaluation to go clearly outlined by the...
Thank you totty23. I really appreciate your words and of course Tah's as well.

I normally don't like to post a lot, but when I see things like that I think it's unfair for TAH's not to post. It's easy to make criticism when we are in the middle of a position building and you have positions with -100 or -120 pips. And of course it's easy to say TAH is the best when you earned 500 pips. That's why I posted.

Today it wasn't an easy day because the guys who are building position had to hold a final (I think) drive and in the psychological way that is not easy to handle. Ofc, it wasn't an easy day for me as well since I saw my account with -700pips and around 5% losses. That is not easy to handle and we get nervous and we go to the forum to flame about drawdowns, shitty system, bla bla bla. I think it's "normal". But we have to be strong. If you are doing the right things with a correct bank management, it's way easier to be strong in these cases.

--------

On the other hand, I fully agree with you. Fundamental and technical before the day start. It's very important to know what's going on in the world economy, in the euro zone, US, etc. Of course, I´m not saying you should trade only based on that, that's crazy, but it helps you to understand the situation. So:

- Can you trade only based in volume? No
- Can you trade only based in candle patterns? No
- Can you trade only based in S/R areas? No
- Can you trade only based in fundamentals? No
- etc etc

You have to trade gathering information about all this topics. The success in trading is about information. If you can read the information all these things are giving to you, you will be a good trader.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #47,751
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:45pm Apr 30, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting Apollo14
Hi guys Someone who can comment VSA today before the breakout ? Thank's {image}
Catch up on your reading of posts you missed since last here. This has already been done.
  • #47,752
  • Edited 1:43pm Apr 30, 2013 12:56pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting JRissa
{quote} EU added scout short #5. PVSRA MM's just pushed price above full number and started heavy selling there. {image} {image}
EU scout short #7 at 1.3150, Sell limit hit.
Scout #8 still pending at 1.3190.

Price is now back at weekly H/S patterns right shoulder high and volumes have gone crazy on 1min chart
So PVSRA still is showing MM's as bears.

And some info for those who can't hold this big drawdowns!

Professor TAH has been telling many times how you must use small position sizes compared to what you might have been doing before!

I said last week that I can easily handle 1000pips moves to position building direction (loss side before profit side) and add more amd more to my position. Right now I'm building positions on GU short, EU short, and some exotic pairs like USDSEK long and USDNOK long.

Now if we look at actual temporary "drawdown" (can't talk about loss, because this should be temporary until price goes where it is supposed to go based on PVSRA) in deposit currency;
I now have 7 short positions open on EU. Mikrolots 0.01
#1 1.3059 -6.79€
#2 1.3096 -3.99€
#3 1.3090 -4.22€
#4 1.3103 -3.32€
#5 1.3117 -2.34€
#6 1.3143 -0.48€
#7 1.3150 +0.03€

So... -21.11€ total.

If one goes by the rules building position and keeping sizes small, who can't handle this?

My intention is to double positions on the way down, cause then we are moving to direction that was originally read from PVSRA. That way I'm maximizing profits with building positions and minimizing losses with keeping positions small when building stage is on way.

So little info about money management using different trading styles here

Little example how I do it:

Classic Sonic R trade with SL at recent higher swing low/high 0.1lot. Risk is normally in 50-100pips range and TP in 50-100pips range. So 50/50 risk/reward ratio.

PVSRA proven Classic Sonic R early entry with SL at recent swing low/high (like todays EJ, GJ and UJ trades) 0.1lot. Risk is normally in 20-50pips range and TP in 80-150pips range. So 30/70 risk/reward ratio.

Now the building part

Building position the MM way is hard to put in any risk/reward ratio. It can be described as most highest propability trading style I have come up. You basically can risk anything you want here, but my example is this:
I start building in 1/10 positions from size used normally. Adding on position every time I think is good place to do so (full and half numers when PVSRA still confirms the MM's haven't swithced side). When the price starts to move to the direction that was originally read with PVSRA, I add to each and every position I already have taken building. This way I'm already at profit side when price has gone back 1/3 way to direction from where the building started.

So different ways to trade, different ways to use money management. This is just an example how I do it
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I know the secret...
  • #47,753
  • Edited 1:57pm Apr 30, 2013 1:21pm | Edited 1:57pm
What happens to the market? Or is my broker? I can not operate ...
That figure has been formed in several pairs, and could not operate in any
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Newbie trader
  • #47,754
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:33pm Apr 30, 2013 2:33pm
Only one weekly H&S is in play..and is an inverted H&S target 1.43....another is not a confirmed H&S.. take care..i am scalping only longs
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  • #47,755
  • Apr 30, 2013 2:39pm Apr 30, 2013 2:39pm
maybe the bearish H&S is invalidated...look right shoulder..if it broke 1.32..good bye
  • #47,756
  • Apr 30, 2013 3:51pm Apr 30, 2013 3:51pm
Quoting afarensis
only one weekly h&s is in play..and is an inverted h&s target 1.43....another is not a confirmed h&s.. Take care..i am scalping only longs {image}
explained, prof look at this plx
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  • #47,757
  • Edited 5:56pm Apr 30, 2013 5:45pm | Edited 5:56pm
Quoting JRissa
{quote} EU scout short #7 at 1.3150, Sell limit hit. Scout #8 still pending at 1.3190. Price is now back at weekly H/S patterns right shoulder high and volumes have gone crazy on 1min chart So PVSRA still is showing MM's as bears. And some info for those who can't hold this big drawdowns! Professor TAH has been telling many times how you must use small position sizes compared to what you might have been doing before! I said last week that I can easily handle 1000pips moves to position building direction (loss side before profit side) and add...
Fire At Will! The Enemy is Being Routed!

I have this post linked to the post by JRissa giving more details on some of the ways he manages his money position building. It is a informative post. It is well worth reading and well worth spending some time thinking about, after you read it. Give time for such information to sink in. It may have greater significance than one might first realize.

I would like to add another thought to this body of knowledge that is starting to be openly discussed, unlike before when such would only have received ridicule from the Doubting Thomases within the retail trader group, and from the spies of the MMs who would not like retail traders doing anything that makes it more difficult for the MMs to take their money!

The thought I would like to add is this. JRissa talked about building a position up as the MMs worked price to build up their own positions, and with the plan to also add more to the position when the MMs finally move the price in the profit making direction. So?

Here is the "So?" When EU was dropping earlier yesterday, I did not add. There had already been talk (ref: Worldfreedom) about the possibility the MMs might take price high again later, and they did, and to the tune of almost 70 pips past the previous signicant high, on a run off the bottom of almost 135 pips! So, we must keep in mind this next statement.

PVSRA can indicate if the MMs are bulls or bears, but we can never know when the MMs are going to stop building and start their run for profits.

As a result of not adding to my EU short position as the run for profits "seemed" to have started early yesterday, when the shit hit the fan I was able to send out several more Scouts near the top of the 135ish pips run back up! I responded to a question earlier yesterday that the MMs might be lowering price ahead of news to coax shorters into the market. On the surface, that would seem not the thing for the MMs to do if they are bears. I mean, why would bear MMs encourage more bears to come in and compete for whatever liquidity for shorting is available? The answer proved simple enough. Suck 'em in and wipe 'em out later! Not only wipe 'em out, but wipe 'em out with nice losses which magnified the liquidity for these sonofabitch bastard MMs!

I hope my added thought is clear. We can never know when the MMs have stopped building and have indeed initiated their run for profits. Therefore, how can we know when it is safe to expend more Scouts during moves in the profit making direction? Please think on this carefully. Building only when price is moving against you might be a hell of a lot safer than doing that and then expending more Scouts when the price is not moving against you. Don't fire all the rest of your ammunition when you see you have the enemy on the run!

Is the enemy really on the run?

-tah
  • #47,758
  • Apr 30, 2013 7:00pm Apr 30, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting Amadeus8
Remember this???....5 days later...and still running #TOLD CHA! {image} {image}
EUR/USD Who still short?


This was the EUR this morning......Listen to the MMs Countdown!
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  • #47,759
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:05pm Apr 30, 2013 9:05pm
Hello,
my first post.
Short on EU.
Doji + high volume on highs.... scout.
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If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #47,760
  • Apr 30, 2013 9:31pm Apr 30, 2013 9:31pm
Quoting Afarensis
Only one weekly H&S is in play..and is an inverted H&S target 1.43....another is not a confirmed H&S.. take care..i am scalping only longs {image}
EU is Having a H&S Convention!

Two normal H&S patterns, with the big one the valid one in play! The second pattern only becomes valid once price breaks the neckline. The targets of both are close enough for government work.

-tah
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