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  • #4,841
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:41pm Apr 30, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting Borg
Hello Lovejoy: Can you comment on my analysis of this potential EURJPY FTB trade. The 16:05 bar (EST) on the 5 min had good rejection in the blue box so a long could have been taken at the close of that bar with a stop below the 16:05 bar. Once price moved above the lower yellow line on the 5 min chart (supply becomes demand) the sl would be moved just below that line. Exit when price hit the second line 14:00 Low level at 17:50. My question would be is that correct or should I have exited when price stalled before the 17:05 level ? Also it took...
It's not a valid FTB trade as that is not a clear zone, with substance and well defined edges (DP's) - this is price coming back to demand as the source of the original move up.

I would compare that zone with the examples given in my FTB videos.
  • #4,842
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:42pm Apr 30, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting panoramia
Hello there! I'm new to this thread. I've been into forex trading for only 2 years. I'm actively trading based on supply and demand levels, using the Daily and Weekly timeframes as the curve to know where price action is located in regards to the higher timeframes imbalances. As you all know, the lower we are in the curve the better for buying and/or exiting (or take profits) our short positions, opposite when we are high in the curve. I've created a spreadsheet that will use MT4's DDE server option to connect and receive current bid/ask price....
Thanks for sharing I'll test this out.
  • #4,843
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:46pm Apr 30, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting freeze
Today's VLTF trades so far – 1 BE and 3 winners, totalling about 5R (a wild guess). Even though some of them lack the probability, speed and minimal drawdown of most LJ's VLTF trades, I feel like I'm improving in that regard. Had I closed the first USDJPY short now, I could get crazy R of about 20 (of course with massive drawdown), but I prefer consistent profits rather than relying on catching a break. {image}{image}{image}{image}
I like the EU trade and took a similar trade as your last UJ trade (for 1.1R) and like you missed the retrace entry for another opportunity, not sure about the middle two trades though. Nice results though, about the same R as me for today though mine was over more trades, scratching around with small wins all day...exhausting!
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  • #4,844
  • Apr 30, 2013 12:52pm Apr 30, 2013 12:52pm
This pretty much sums up my day, getting stopped out on my 2nd position on EJ - good HTF location here and reasons to be expecting a further drop, 1R instead of the multiple R it should have been.
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  • #4,845
  • Apr 30, 2013 1:26pm Apr 30, 2013 1:26pm
One more AU trade. I also managed to catch the top with my SL (to the tick/0.1 pip), luckily I reentered.
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  • #4,846
  • May 1, 2013 1:18am May 1, 2013 1:18am
Hi LJ do you trading live today? or other days with EU or US bank holidays ?

thank you.
  • #4,847
  • May 1, 2013 2:38am May 1, 2013 2:38am
Quoting tinkerbelle
Hi LJ do you trading live today? or other days with EU or US bank holidays ? thank you.
I am trading today but of course I am being more cautious this morning what with most of Europe on holiday and just assessing the price action. At the moment everything is rather slow so I'm not interested so will just assess as the morning develops, if not the NY session should represent better trading conditions.
  • #4,848
  • May 1, 2013 11:09am May 1, 2013 11:09am
Quiet day, just 3 VLTF PA trades.

1. UJ - M1 FTB - scaled out ahead of US data and when previous highs couldn't hold for +1.9R.

2. EU M1 - breakout of clear supply then consuming demand in the way, entered after a retrace from this demand back up to supply (was looking sub M1 to get a better view) and then when price was breaking back down again for +1.4R.

3. UJ M1 - pre-empting a break lower, but price stalled ahead of US data so scaled out for +0.64R.
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  • #4,849
  • May 1, 2013 11:57am May 1, 2013 11:57am
Nice trades. I got a question about your second chart (essentially, what do you want to see so that you're not afraid of selling into some demand zones?).
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UJ, I closed it prematurely since it wasn't doing much (I would have closed it at ~1R, but still hurts to see it drop like that).

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And the USDCAD DRT you were talking about yesterday is doing pretty well for now.

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Also the EURCAD FTB you mentioned on Monday unfortunately missed my order.

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  • #4,850
  • May 1, 2013 3:13pm May 1, 2013 3:13pm
anyone,did webinar begin?
  • #4,851
  • May 1, 2013 3:17pm May 1, 2013 3:17pm
I'm pretty sure tonight's webinar was cancelled, Mark sent out e-mails about it.
  • #4,852
  • May 1, 2013 3:29pm May 1, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting freeze
I'm pretty sure tonight's webinar was cancelled, Mark sent out e-mails about it.
I`ve got email that tonights webinar starts in 1 hour...that was an hour and half ago....
  • #4,853
  • Edited 4:05pm May 1, 2013 3:53pm | Edited 4:05pm
Quoting pex
anyone,did webinar begin?
I sent an email around earlier saying that tonight's webinar would be cancelled as today was pretty quiet due to the European wide public holiday.

The other email is just the default reminder email the webinar software sends out 1 hour before the event (which I couldn't cancel as the webinars have been setup as a continuous series).

Two new FTB's on my current watchlist as per attached charts.

Also, keep an eye on EAUD, ENZD, GAUD, GNZD and ACHF for potential DRT setups - lots of correlated exposure there. I'll be analysing these in more detail tomorrow morning before deciding what to do.
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  • #4,854
  • May 1, 2013 4:15pm May 1, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting freeze
Nice trades. I got a question about your second chart (essentially, what do you want to see so that you're not afraid of selling into some demand zones?). {image} UJ, I closed it prematurely since it wasn't doing much (I would have closed it at ~1R, but still hurts to see it drop like that). {image} And the USDCAD DRT you were talking about yesterday is doing pretty well for now. {image} Also the EURCAD FTB you mentioned on Monday unfortunately missed my order. {image}
Unfortunate on the ECAD, it would have missed my entry too.

With regards EU, I placed more importance on the upper DP marked as this has more history relative to the lower DP. Hence even if price did react at the lower DP I expected the upper DP to hold on the retest.

I also had a short bias and a view that price was heading back to retest the 1.3200 area once it broke the level and demand marked with the arrow having hit M30 former demand from way back.
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  • #4,855
  • May 1, 2013 5:37pm May 1, 2013 5:37pm
Makes perfect sense, thanks.

Today I watched the DRT series for the first time, and rushed to this thread to post about EAUD, ENZD, GAUD and GNZD. I see you beat me to it, but I'm posting the charts anyway along with proposed entries and stops (short blue lines).

Lots of correlated exposure as you said, so I only picked 2 of them. I really like how EAUD is an FTB and a DRT at the same time.
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  • #4,856
  • May 2, 2013 1:51am May 2, 2013 1:51am
Quoting freeze
Makes perfect sense, thanks. Today I watched the DRT series for the first time, and rushed to this thread to post about EAUD, ENZD, GAUD and GNZD. I see you beat me to it, but I'm posting the charts anyway along with proposed entries and stops (short blue lines). Lots of correlated exposure as you said, so I only picked 2 of them. I really like how EAUD is an FTB and a DRT at the same time. {image} {image} {image} {image}
EAUD and GNZD are my preferred too out of the the correlated pairs. Though EU having a daily FB is a bit concerning, mixed signals ahead of the ECB.

This range stands out for an FB opportunity at either side, though would prefer a short over a long.
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  • #4,857
  • May 2, 2013 2:39am May 2, 2013 2:39am
1st trade of the day, AU short for +2R.

Clear rejection from M5 supply, M1 FB, waited for the demand marked to be consumed and for it was when a) 38.4 was broken and b) combined with the weak rejection from there last time round and the new DBD held with strong selling off there.

Wasn't likely to give a retrace given the clear space below so trading 'the break' was the more logical route to entry.

50% off at each of the areas marked with arrows.

Tight SL (as usual) of 3 pips - I see a growing trend of SD traders elsewhere not using stops and price averaging, I prefer the old fashioned principles of actually reading the price action and knowing where price should react at and getting out when I'm wrong than just accepting large potential draw-down for poor 'real' %R wins. I'm guessing laziness, poor PA reading skills, mechanical system style approaches and a weak mindset are causing this shift as more and more people turn to SD trading as their core.
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  • #4,858
  • May 2, 2013 3:58am May 2, 2013 3:58am
Nice one.

I noticed an EURJPY FB, but didn't take part.

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I couldn't agree more with the rant about some SD traders. On this and other forums I noticed people either touchtrading all HTF zones (usually drawn by indicators), or waiting for an engulfing bar and placing the stop above the entire SD zone (in a mechanical fashion). Then they show off the best closed trades with ridiculous RR, but most still can't make money. The worst part is they don't really understand the price action between their entry and target, and they usually suffer a huge profit drawdown on the way to their target.

I don't want to start an argument, I'm sure this method can make you money with the right mindset, but imho it's pretty inefficient and lazy.
  • #4,859
  • May 2, 2013 6:07am May 2, 2013 6:07am
Perfect opportunity on EU a few minutes ago (LTF FB, rejection from supply).
I didn't get a fill though.
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  • #4,860
  • May 2, 2013 9:24am May 2, 2013 9:24am
Quoting freeze
Perfect opportunity on EU a few minutes ago (LTF FB, rejection from supply). I didn't get a fill though. {image} {image}
Hey man,

Any reason why u had your Sell Limit Order where you did? This is how I view this, maybe I'm missing something.

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I don't need easy. I just need possible.
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