DislikedUChf Short Trade: Entered short #1, Classic. M15 PVSRA is obvious. {image}Ignored
Added short trade #2, Classic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #47,401
- Apr 25, 2013 1:42pm Apr 25, 2013 1:42pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #47,402
- Apr 25, 2013 1:48pm Apr 25, 2013 1:48pm
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts
{quote} Ok, here's the chart:{image} The price gets rejected below round number with high volumes.
I'll answer better tomorrow morning when I get to computer, but here's a hint: Where are highest volumes on 1min chart shown below?
And where did the MM's like to keep price when building shorts?
They would not want the price to start falling too soon before they get all the shorts they want
I know the secret...
- #47,403
- Apr 25, 2013 2:04pm Apr 25, 2013 2:04pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #47,404
- Apr 25, 2013 2:14pm Apr 25, 2013 2:14pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #47,408
- Apr 25, 2013 3:58pm Apr 25, 2013 3:58pm
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #47,409
- Apr 25, 2013 7:54pm Apr 25, 2013 7:54pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
A Theory on GU
The strong move up in the last session does look like the market makers quickly getting prices above where maybe lots of longs have been previously trapped, a move to forstall them from selling at the first opportunity to get their money back, which would have made more expensive the market makers profit making run to higher highs. Looking at the Daily chart you can see the last previous significant high, which aligns with a historically significant low and is an obvious place longs may have been trapped when price did not continue up.
Ok, now the market makers have completed an inter-day bull swing up of 250+ pips. They likely have already taken some profits. What now?
A plausible theory is that the MMs retrace the price at least 38% of the move up yesterday, which puts price back to the highs where those longs got trapped, not low enough to foment selling, just low enough to encourage more longs to trade in and give added momentum to the profit making move. This 38% retrace would put the price within pips of the lower whole number (1.5400), where a quick dash below could afford some MMs another opportunity to add some longs but without triggering massive selling by those trapped longs. Or maybe the MMs now no longer worry if the trapped longs, momentarily back in profit, all head for the doors if the price starts falling below the lower whole number again, as their selling off would provide liquidity for the MMs to add more longs. The MMs wouldn't be worried this time about all that supply killing their drive up. Their drive up is already done and some profits taken! Getting those longs down there to sell now works in favor of the MMs. If this happens then the retrace move might be more like a 50%+ retrace towards the lower 3/4 number, and a nice 100+ pips swing back down to set up for the next inter-day swing up next week.
To trade in accord with this theory, the thing to do would be to watch and see if the MMs retrace the move up yesterday by dropping the price to the lower whole number area, and if they do then look for increasing volumes down there and possibly even some quick moves below that whole number, possibly towards the lower 3/4 number area accompanied by high relative volume.
If a gapping up move by MMs thru an area of trapped longs is a reliable signal of market strength, even in the face of the MMs having already taking price on a 250+ inter-day swing up, then it is logical the MMs will retrace the price somewhat first. This could be accomplished this last day of the week, and then next week could be devoted to another inter-day swing up.
In conclusion, will the MMs retrace yesterday's move up, and if so will they get the price below the lower whole number, and if so will they drive it towards the lower 3/4 in an effort now to get those trapped longs to sell off this time so the MMs can load up more longs for another whopping inter-day swing up next week?
-tah
The strong move up in the last session does look like the market makers quickly getting prices above where maybe lots of longs have been previously trapped, a move to forstall them from selling at the first opportunity to get their money back, which would have made more expensive the market makers profit making run to higher highs. Looking at the Daily chart you can see the last previous significant high, which aligns with a historically significant low and is an obvious place longs may have been trapped when price did not continue up.
Ok, now the market makers have completed an inter-day bull swing up of 250+ pips. They likely have already taken some profits. What now?
A plausible theory is that the MMs retrace the price at least 38% of the move up yesterday, which puts price back to the highs where those longs got trapped, not low enough to foment selling, just low enough to encourage more longs to trade in and give added momentum to the profit making move. This 38% retrace would put the price within pips of the lower whole number (1.5400), where a quick dash below could afford some MMs another opportunity to add some longs but without triggering massive selling by those trapped longs. Or maybe the MMs now no longer worry if the trapped longs, momentarily back in profit, all head for the doors if the price starts falling below the lower whole number again, as their selling off would provide liquidity for the MMs to add more longs. The MMs wouldn't be worried this time about all that supply killing their drive up. Their drive up is already done and some profits taken! Getting those longs down there to sell now works in favor of the MMs. If this happens then the retrace move might be more like a 50%+ retrace towards the lower 3/4 number, and a nice 100+ pips swing back down to set up for the next inter-day swing up next week.
To trade in accord with this theory, the thing to do would be to watch and see if the MMs retrace the move up yesterday by dropping the price to the lower whole number area, and if they do then look for increasing volumes down there and possibly even some quick moves below that whole number, possibly towards the lower 3/4 number area accompanied by high relative volume.
If a gapping up move by MMs thru an area of trapped longs is a reliable signal of market strength, even in the face of the MMs having already taking price on a 250+ inter-day swing up, then it is logical the MMs will retrace the price somewhat first. This could be accomplished this last day of the week, and then next week could be devoted to another inter-day swing up.
In conclusion, will the MMs retrace yesterday's move up, and if so will they get the price below the lower whole number, and if so will they drive it towards the lower 3/4 in an effort now to get those trapped longs to sell off this time so the MMs can load up more longs for another whopping inter-day swing up next week?
-tah
- #47,410
- Edited 8:37pm Apr 25, 2013 8:21pm | Edited 8:37pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
I want to discuss here one idea. We know that volumes are really different from one broker to another one. As I see many of SonicR-ers are using MT4 platforms just for charting and analyzing. For example I have 2 different live accounts and 1 demo (5 daily candles per week). To understand the difference by volumes I opened Montly charts of EU. I found that Volume for last month (March) was very different. HotForex 1,958,824 FXCC 2,404,392 AxiTrader 3,239,336 FXPrimus 550,622 RVD Markets 3,492,655 Oanda 3,422,756 Varengold 4,893,415 FXDD 1,402,825...
Aside from saying one more time that it is not so much the actual volume that is important as it is that there is a notable change in the relative volume, I also want to suggest that there are reasons a trader might not not want to indiscriminately select a broker, live or demo, based on the broker being one that typically shows higher actual volume counts than others.
Some reasons to avoid such a broker might be that their platform time zone might be inconvenient, their server slow (especially for demos), their spreads less attractive, and maybe that they are even a disgusting "bucket shop" operation that constantly plays dirty with their own clients while denying and smiling.
In any case, one more time, notable changes in volumes relative to adjacent time frame volumes is what is important, and all brokers will likely show notable relative changes regardless of total volume counts. Concern about the actual count for total volumes is totally unnecessary.
Fex, thank you for also reiterating this for Sonicers, not once, but twice!
-tah
- #47,411
- Edited 9:12pm Apr 25, 2013 8:43pm | Edited 9:12pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
GU Short Trade:
Entered short, Scout, MMs pumped price above the half number and poured on the trades (M1 PVSRA) confirming the MMs are now bears hiking prices to add shorts.
It is important to remember that while PVSRA makes it easy to know if the MMs are bulls or bears, we can never know at what price they will initiate their profit making run. So in this case price could go higher,.....and higher,......and higher before starting to move back down. The risk of this happening is reduced because this hike is above a half number near the top of an already substantial run, and price is already in the RWH area. Therefore, if price does go higher, the odds are increased that it won't go unacceptably higher, just higher enough to add another short.
Another point is I am trading on notable changes in relative volumes, not total volume counts or even "high" volumes as compared with earlier volumes in the previous London session. It is entirely unnecessary to be concerned with actual volume counts or that the volume be one of the highest on the chart (of your broker or of any broker).
Edit: Added short #2, added pic. #3.
Entered short, Scout, MMs pumped price above the half number and poured on the trades (M1 PVSRA) confirming the MMs are now bears hiking prices to add shorts.
It is important to remember that while PVSRA makes it easy to know if the MMs are bulls or bears, we can never know at what price they will initiate their profit making run. So in this case price could go higher,.....and higher,......and higher before starting to move back down. The risk of this happening is reduced because this hike is above a half number near the top of an already substantial run, and price is already in the RWH area. Therefore, if price does go higher, the odds are increased that it won't go unacceptably higher, just higher enough to add another short.
Another point is I am trading on notable changes in relative volumes, not total volume counts or even "high" volumes as compared with earlier volumes in the previous London session. It is entirely unnecessary to be concerned with actual volume counts or that the volume be one of the highest on the chart (of your broker or of any broker).
Edit: Added short #2, added pic. #3.
- #47,412
- Edited Apr 26, 2013 2:04pm Apr 25, 2013 9:25pm | Edited Apr 26, 2013 2:04pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Just Testing PVSAR.... Sonicers, do not fret because you see this totally non-SonicR trade. I am just testing the reliability of PVSRA. I viewed the trending down of price with high volumes associated with candles that were at/near or striking into the bottoms of the cycles as bull MM activity taking advantage of lower lows to build a long position. In the bigger picture of M15 (not shown) all this is happening at the previous significant PA lows. On M1 I then saw the big (green) grab for long followed immediately by the price being restored low...
{quote} Just Testing PVSAR.... And now a quas-SonicR long setup on M15, for trade #4 long. The PA wave is not L-H-HL. It is L-H-LL, but the final leg is a strong move up due to the fact the bull MMs loaded up longs at the lows and started running the price up to build in profits. I doubt I will add to this anymore unless the LS MM really suddenly wack this back even lower, and if at that time the MMs still analyze as bull. No SL, and while I have three TPs set, if this runs well I might just sit on it thru the week and see if TP3 is reached. So,...
{quote} Just Testing PVSAR.... Added long trade #5, a Scout as MM push down once again, this time a bit lower. No SL, adjusted TPs. {image}
{quote} Just Testing PVSAR.... Added long #6, another Scout as MMs finally got price down to the half number area. My position is now complete. TPs are adjusted. {image}
AU Long Trade: Added long #7, a Scout. MMs just torpedoed the hell out of it, a big move to wipe out weak hand longs! Just look at M1 and see how much trading activity is at the new lows at the 1/4 natural S&R level! Torpedo & Buy! example. I will add again if MMs get this below the lower whole number. New TPs will be selected after these shenanegans are over with. I thought my position building on this trade was finished, but this is a good example of the facts of life in a price manipulated market. It is easy to determine if the MMs are bulls...
{quote} AU Long Trade: Added long #8, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows price lowered (price consideration), volumes increased (volumes consideration) and when MMs moved price below half number again (S&R consideration), confirming MMs remain bulls and are lowering price to add longs. {image}
{quote} AU Long Trade: Added long #9, Scout, maybe final. MMs brought price back down to previous local S&R below whole number and M1 shows concentrated high volumes once price went below the whole number. Hence, MMs are bulls driving price low to add longs. They add, I add. {image}
Closed all nine trades at TP1 for 70x9= 630 pips gained, average EP to close at TP1. This still has a ways to go before RDH and the LS is yet a long time from now. I am closing due to the number of open trades I have now on this Friday, but if price retraces well, I might start rebuilding long.
-tah
- #47,413
- Apr 25, 2013 9:26pm Apr 25, 2013 9:26pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,073 Posts
gotcha,... Now 129.27 ..lvl break??? Sonic {image}
12 hours later...
Told Cha..
Sonic
- #47,414
- Apr 25, 2013 10:20pm Apr 25, 2013 10:20pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: the probability trader | 1,110 Posts
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
- #47,415
- Apr 25, 2013 10:30pm Apr 25, 2013 10:30pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: the probability trader | 1,110 Posts
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
- #47,417
- Apr 25, 2013 11:00pm Apr 25, 2013 11:00pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: the probability trader | 1,110 Posts
Eventhough as much as I would like it to do down further, I can't help but notice possible stopping volume twice.. Watching it close.. Sonic {image}
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
- #47,418
- Apr 25, 2013 11:05pm Apr 25, 2013 11:05pm
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts
I know the secret...
- #47,419
- Apr 25, 2013 11:18pm Apr 25, 2013 11:18pm
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,107 Posts
I know the secret...