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  • #2,641
  • Apr 24, 2013 9:05am Apr 24, 2013 9:05am
I don't have a lot of time right now but I wanted to answer Offshore with a question or three for now and then after a couple of hours we can discuss the answers.

Out of all the pairs, which ones moved the most during Asia?

Which pairs have the most levels stacked up near the daily open? the previous day high/low?

Is the daily open stronger or weaker than the previous day high or low?

If price is within only a few pips of the daily open for a long time is the signal stronger or weaker?

These are just a few of the questions you need to quickly ask before choosing your pairs. I disagree that you should only take one. I whole heartedly suggest taking one euro pair and one pound pair when trading levels. Break your risk in half and spread it over two pairs. Sometimes it will be safer to trade one yen and one dollar. There is more but I am busy with some business and will return in two or three hours.

I did not trade last night but if I had I will say that I would have chosen to sell GJ at the previous day high and sell EU at the previous week low. I would have killed the EU short at the previous day low due to the news bar and the speed of the move. I probably would have longed it there because there was absolutely no follow through, it was a classic stop run with a news catalyst. GJ profit would have been taken at the daily open line. GJ had double strength at the previous day high, why? Previous week low was the first thing hit on EU and it is a weekly level so no brainer there.

A few things to think about.
  • #2,642
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:47pm Apr 24, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I don't have a lot of time right now but I wanted to answer Offshore with a question or three for now and then after a couple of hours we can discuss the answers. Out of all the pairs, which ones moved the most during Asia? Which pairs have the most levels stacked up near the daily open? the previous day high/low? Is the daily open stronger or weaker than the previous day high or low? If price is within only a few pips of the daily open for a long time is the signal stronger or weaker? These are just a few of the questions you need to quickly ask...
Ok so why EU short?

Price opened the day just below last week's low. We had a rather large move down yesterday and were consolidating. The weekly low was the closest price and the first hit. Weekly levels are stronger than daily and are always the first choice for a trade when close.

Why GJ and why ignore the daily open?

The daily open trade is not the strongest trade. It is a great trade in trending conditions but in the directionless market we are having lately it can be better to wait for highs and lows. I like to take the daily open when price has moved away by a bit and then returns. After the larger range during Asia the short on GJ doesn't look too appealing. The previous day high though which is backed by the weekly open is a rather strong level and one where I would look to trade. In the current climate shorting anything against the yen is somewhat iffy and should only be done at a relatively strong level. I think it will be after the ECB rate decision before we finally break out of these ranges and get into a decent trend. All three of the central banks are really battling to take control so we just bounce around until someone blinks.
  • #2,643
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:54pm Apr 24, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I take every trade triggered each day so if you only tested the first breakout then you would have different results. Also I counted some winners that just miss 1/1 due to taking off the first half at some major level such as the previous day high or low. Other than these two things I cannot say why you would have different results. There are many days over the past two years when price has broken out with no retest. I view this as a cost of having less stop outs than I would have with a simple breakout. If I were trading simple breakouts...
Im really sorryto harp on about this when most will have moved on,but as Seneca said its good to have a workable stratagy that you can use untill you can tweak it with the addition of the other info on this tread.Right are you only using EUR/USD for these trades (outlined on post 80).With regard to trading the retest do you wait (after the retest) untill you have a closed candle clear of the bracket line? as it appears if you dont do that its more likely to turn back on you into the range.Please humour me on this guys as if you dont ask you dont learn,if it makes me look like an idiot well Im used to it.
  • #2,644
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:53pm Apr 24, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting buster48
{quote} Im really sorryto harp on about this when most will have moved on,but as Seneca said its good to have a workable stratagy that you can use untill you can tweak it with the addition of the other info on this tread.Right are you only using EUR/USD for these trades (outlined on post 80).With regard to trading the retest do you wait (after the retest) untill you have a closed candle clear of the bracket line? as it appears if you dont do that its more likely to turn back on you into the range.Please humour me on this guys as if you dont ask...
to be fair it is very clearly explained in the post! but the answer is no, the retest is your entry point. wait for closed candle then set an order to enter back at the range level or enter manually at the level.
  • #2,645
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:12pm Apr 24, 2013 4:12pm
Quoting stevexyg
{quote} to be fair it is very clearly explained in the post! but the answer is no, the retest is your entry point. wait for closed candle then set an order to enter back at the range level or enter manually at the level.
If I considered it to be clearly explained in the post I wouldent have asked,while it may be explained Im wondering if ive missunderstood something as as far as I can see there is no way this stratagy as explained could ever be profitable as others have also said,so obviously some part of the equasion is missing.So I would be interested to hear what Im missing from the man himself.
  • #2,646
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:16pm Apr 24, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Ok so why EU short? Price opened the day just below last week's low. We had a rather large move down yesterday and were consolidating. The weekly low was the closest price and the first hit. Weekly levels are stronger than daily and are always the first choice for a trade when close.
re EU: So you were in (maybe theoretically depending on how your broker switch is getting on) from the first touch of WL from below. From there, are you watching the 15m candles looking for an out if you don't like the look of things or are you TP or nothing? Second question about TP. Monday and Tuesday are printing lower lows. So do you target PDL for around 30 or do you wait for another LL below that? Tuesdays low occurred around 8am so you could be expecting a similar early move down? This time is was only an extra 18 or so pips past PDL but we are in a 3-7day downtrend so these PDL have to be broken don't they? Until they aren't anymore ofcourse.
  • #2,647
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:20pm Apr 24, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting buster48
{quote} Please humour me on this guys as if you dont ask you dont learn
  • #2,648
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:31pm Apr 24, 2013 4:31pm
buster48,,
i pinged you.. learn the basics of why open range is so important even in this age and with experiance you will learn more ie somtimes we have the retrace due to scalpers,panic, time frame etc and many times we do not have a retrace at all. i just stuck some stats in a different site regarding e/j. for the month of april (yes we are still in april) but they currently run at on jpn open we have just over 50% strike rate and on the uk open over 90% strike rate and that is trading without retrace.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,649
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:57pm Apr 24, 2013 5:57pm
jpn almost open, trade well guys
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,650
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:16pm Apr 24, 2013 7:16pm
Seneca - Great Response! Helps to understand your thought process behind choosing the setups.


Out of all the pairs, which ones moved the most during Asia?
EJ 88 GJ 88 GU 23 EU 18
So without a doubt the EJ / GJ ranges were quite larger than EU / GJ, which is expected as the daily ranges average much larger as well. EJ Asian range was approx. 88 pips and the average Asian range over the last 20 days is approximately 93 pips so it does appear to be within its normal range according to the averages over the last 20 days. I am not sure how this information can be used with regard to the next day’s trade setups. I used to use the Asian Range much in the same way that the levels are traded.


Which pairs have the most levels stacked up near the daily open? The previous day high/low?

Wasn’t going to list each one out specifically as you already listed this but the thought process here is to trade the levels with the most confluence in the same area/zone, while giving a higher weighting to the higher timeframe level….ie Weekly High Low then Weekly Open then Daily High Low then Daily Open. Choose the higher timeframe level with the most confluences. Seems logical to me.


Is the daily open stronger or weaker than the previous day high or low?

Daily open is weaker hands down. Daily Highs and Lows, in my opinion are the true SR that stopped and turned price on a daily chart, which is how the high or low formed in the 1st place.


If price is within only a few pips of the daily open for a long time is the signal stronger or weaker?

I would say weaker but I do not have any proof to back that statement up. To me the more price chops a level or floats around it, the less significant that level is. The best hit on the level is usually the 1st test of it as orders are still sitting there and have not been filled yet. If price is resting near a level and it is continuing to sit there, I’d have to ask myself why is it not bouncing or rejecting or giving some kind of action --- no orders there. PA will move to where the orders are or the next level, trade there, ie your GJ short. Seems hard to get an entry in the wick of a candle with minimal drawdown in that situation around the daily open. I again have no tests to back that up but it makes sense to me.


I am definitely going to make some notes of those questions when approached with this situation in the future. You’ve got me thinking……I can tell you I will be paying much more attention to these details moving forward.
  • #2,651
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:17pm Apr 24, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting buster48
{quote}If I considered it to be clearly explained in the post I wouldent have asked,while it may be explained Im wondering if ive missunderstood something as as far as I can see there is no way this stratagy as explained could ever be profitable as others have also said,so obviously some part of the equasion is missing.So I would be interested to hear what Im missing from the man himself.
Bracket the three hours leading up to London open. Wait for a one hour bar to close outside this range and trade the retest of the range boundary. Breakout below the range sell the bottom. Above the range buy the top. Simple.

I won't argue about the profitability I have traded this with these exact rules and have made very nice profits. You will not have a steady equity curve with this, it will get hit in chop and do well in trend. If you want to improve this you would need to identify conditions like we have now with bad chop and stay out. I just take every trade.
  • #2,652
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:20pm Apr 24, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting OffshorePipn
Seneca - Great Response! Helps to understand your thought process behind choosing the setups. Out of all the pairs, which ones moved the most during Asia? EJ 88 GJ 88 GU 23 EU 18 So without a doubt the EJ / GJ ranges were quite larger than EU / GJ, which is expected as the daily ranges average much larger as well. EJ Asian range was approx. 88 pips and the average Asian range over the last 20 days is approximately 93 pips so it does appear to be within its normal range according to the averages over the last 20 days. I am not sure how this information...
You have it 100% correct.

The only thing I would add is that the yen pairs moved a larger percentage of their normal range than did the dollar pairs so I am drawn to them first. I would have taken EU only because we were close to a weekly level.
  • #2,653
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:32pm Apr 24, 2013 7:32pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Bracket the three hours leading up to London open. Wait for a one hour bar to close outside this range and trade the retest of the range boundary. Breakout below the range sell the bottom. Above the range buy the top. Simple. I won't argue about the profitability I have traded this with these exact rules and have made very nice profits. You will not have a steady equity curve with this, it will get hit in chop and do well in trend. If you want to improve this you would need to identify conditions like we have now with bad chop and stay out....
Interestingly this week we have had a winner Monday, no trade Tuesday, and two winners today. Three days three winning trades and we are in chop. With a trend we might have two or three winning trades stacked and riding.
  • #2,654
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:44pm Apr 24, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting stevexyg
{quote} re EU: So you were in (maybe theoretically depending on how your broker switch is getting on) from the first touch of WL from below. From there, are you watching the 15m candles looking for an out if you don't like the look of things or are you TP or nothing? Second question about TP. Monday and Tuesday are printing lower lows. So do you target PDL for around 30 or do you wait for another LL below that? Tuesdays low occurred around 8am so you could be expecting a similar early move down? This time is was only an extra 18 or so pips past...
I didn't trade, I am still in between brokers. I have not been cleared to deposit yet.

With the EU trade I would almost definitely have exited at or a little below the PDL line. Price was moving fast so I would have figured there was a stop run in the works so maybe held for a few pips below the line. When that fifteen minute bar closed all the way back inside the PDL line it was the tell that the down move was a fake. the next bar gave the buy. If there was no short trade leading into the level I would have just bought it at the low and held on.
  • #2,655
  • Apr 25, 2013 3:18am Apr 25, 2013 3:18am
hi guys, hope your having a good day. i have done for the day after trading e/j on jpn and uk breakout.. Johnny if you read this i will try and adjust my figures so you will understand them lol.figures regarding breakout stats
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,656
  • Apr 25, 2013 3:59am Apr 25, 2013 3:59am
Hi all, thanks for a great thread - so much great wisdom and experience.

I have spent a couple of days reading the thread (yes it took that long, when you're looking at the charts as well). I am still a little unclear on one aspect of trading key levels.

For example - at the moment GU spiked on news and has gone beyond the PWeek high - so it makes sense to short (especially as it hasn't gone much beyond for over a month). SoI jumped in front the train, but my SL was probably to short for the momentum and I got taken out.

My question is, at what point do you consider the resistance level to have been broken (and potentially become support). I know, as SP states that levels can be tested 2 or three times - but I am not sure whether to look at the distance the price has gone beyond the level, or the time it has spent beyond the level, or a mixture of both.

I now others would say wait to see if it bounces of that level -if so, do you then wait for a second bounce for entry (hope that makes sense).
  • #2,657
  • Apr 25, 2013 4:18am Apr 25, 2013 4:18am
[quote=hollowhead;6635402]Hi all, thanks for a great thread - so much great wisdom and experience. I have spent a couple of days reading the thread (yes it took that long, when you're looking at the charts as well). I am still a little unclear on one aspect of trading key levels.

you are thinking too much,, when you start to think you will lose.. You mention time , TIME is very important..this thread is primarily aimed at open range breakout and if you stick to this you will win, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,658
  • Apr 25, 2013 4:26am Apr 25, 2013 4:26am
[quote=billytt;6635482]
Quoting hollowhead
Hi all, thanks for a great thread - so much great wisdom and experience. I have spent a couple of days reading the thread (yes it took that long, when you're looking at the charts as well). I am still a little unclear on one aspect of trading key levels. you are thinking too much,, when you start to think you will lose.. You mention time , TIME is very important..this thread is primarily aimed at open range breakout and if you stick to this you will win, be good
Thanks for the response billytt. I'm not sure what you mean by 'thinking too much'...
  • #2,659
  • Apr 25, 2013 4:45am Apr 25, 2013 4:45am
[quote=hollowhead;6635504]
Quoting billytt
{quote} Thanks for the response billytt. I'm not sure what you mean by 'thinking too much'...
i just pinged you
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,660
  • Apr 25, 2013 5:31am Apr 25, 2013 5:31am
Quoting kk007
{quote} Oh.. Sorry... my mistake.... I have used the broker of GMT +3... and I should have used the broker of GMT-4 instead.
Could you please send a picture with these levels. I just can't match these levels on my charts. Thank you!
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