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  • #2,601
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:10pm Apr 23, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting buster48
Hi Seneca sorry to go back over old ground but on post 80 you put up a post about trading a bracket breakout from the high/low of the 3 1hr bars preceding the london open,trading after a retest of one side of the bracket (see chart post 80)on a pending order ,now after test after test I dont get anything like the results you posted,which makes me wonder if you are using a different criteria in addition. Most of the time you either dont get a retest or it comes back and goes straight through and out the other side of the bracket,what am I missing...
I take every trade triggered each day so if you only tested the first breakout then you would have different results. Also I counted some winners that just miss 1/1 due to taking off the first half at some major level such as the previous day high or low. Other than these two things I cannot say why you would have different results. There are many days over the past two years when price has broken out with no retest. I view this as a cost of having less stop outs than I would have with a simple breakout. If I were trading simple breakouts (which I do) I would not use a range so large and would make sure to have trades in locations with a good story and smaller stops.
  • #2,602
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:14pm Apr 23, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I take every trade triggered each day so if you only tested the first breakout then you would have different results. Also I counted some winners that just miss 1/1 due to taking off the first half at some major level such as the previous day high or low. Other than these two things I cannot say why you would have different results. There are many days over the past two years when price has broken out with no retest. I view this as a cost of having less stop outs than I would have with a simple breakout. If I were trading simple breakouts...
One thing I would like to say now. The breakout method is not the best method I have taught here. It is, as I stated earlier in the thread, a method that will help to avoid overtrading and allow a trader to get profitable while learning. There is nothing better than making a little money while you learn how the market works and strengthen your trading skills. It is a simple and foolproof method that will keep a novice from blowing their account. It only fires off one or two trades per day so you can't blow an account with it unless you over leverage terribly.

Now I see Olarian here so he will probably chime in at this point because he has had a lot of recent experience with these trades.
  • #2,603
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:19pm Apr 23, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting kokopelli
{quote} Douchebags don't quote themselves...only narcissists do. Kidding aside...I too am a fan of ATR and did notice your post. Just for my own clarification, are you saying that, for example, if the 5-day average ATR = 100, and if we're approaching 100 for today at LC, then this is a price area of interest to you? And are you looking for a price reversal? Then the next question is...when does the clock start for the ATR counter? If your starting point is NYO, then the ATR will rarely get to its average by LC. If your starting point is previous...
The first question you can figure out yourself. Do some backtesting and you'll see.

Always use 5pm est for a daily close when calculating ATR.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,604
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:34pm Apr 23, 2013 5:34pm
PTJ -

'I look for opportunities with tremendously skewed reward-risk opportunities. Don’t ever let them get into your pocket – that means there’s no reason to leverage substantially. There’s no reason to take substantial amounts of financial risk ever, because you should always be able to find something where you can skew the reward risk relationship so greatly in your favor that you can take a variety of small investments with great reward risk opportunities that should give you minimum draw down pain and maximum upside opportunities.'

has he been reading this thread??!
  • #2,605
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:14pm Apr 23, 2013 6:14pm
[quote=buster48;6631169]Hi Seneca sorry to go back over old ground but on post 80 you put up a post about trading a bracket breakout from the high/low of the 3 1hr bars preceding the london open,

Hi bud, SP wrote down his particular way of trading the breakout and it is good, i trade breakout but do not rely on the retrace as i believe it loses pips and trades. I would not come in this room and state that though. Try reading the book written by fisher, a good read. right,,, jpn now oopen and i will be trading breakout hopefully in a few minutes, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,606
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:08pm Apr 23, 2013 7:08pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
This sucks, it was a great trading day with lots of winners and I have closed all my accounts except for the tester. I made enough last night to have a coffee.
If it makes you feel better....I whacked em in all directions today. E/$ at least. down, up, and down again.

Many things are coming together.
  • #2,607
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:11pm Apr 23, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} If it makes you feel better....I whacked em in all directions today. E/$ at least. down, up, and down again. Many things are coming together.
Excellent, we will be talking a lot as soon as I get my accounts up and running. You're close.
  • #2,608
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:13pm Apr 23, 2013 7:13pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Not that I know of, there are a few interviews on the net and the famous frontline show that I linked here but that one only pops up for a short time before his people find it and have it taken down. I have never found it anywhere where I can download it and have a copy for myself. Much of what I have read of him and seen in the various shows and interviews has really shaped my trading.
Tell me what it is and I'll do my best to get it SP. Like helping my friends.
  • #2,609
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:20pm Apr 23, 2013 7:20pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Excellent, we will be talking a lot as soon as I get my accounts up and running. You're close.
Thinking in levels makes one look at a chart differently.
  • #2,610
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:21pm Apr 23, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Tell me what it is and I'll do my best to get it SP. Like helping my friends.
There was a frontline show in 1987 about PTJ and he bought it and had all the copies pulled. It still floats around on the net but I have never found a copy that I could download. If you google Paul Tudor Jones documentary you might be able to find it to watch. I linked it here when I found it a few months ago but it is already down. His people must have a full time position doing nothing but scouring the net looking for it to be posted and sending out cease and desist orders. It never stays up long.
  • #2,611
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:22pm Apr 23, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Thinking in levels makes one look at a chart differently.
The key is boiling it down to two or three levels and ignoring the rest of the chart. You avoid lots of trading mistakes that way and you almost always get the chance to reenter in the right direction if a level gets busted.
  • #2,612
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:27pm Apr 23, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The key is boiling it down to two or three levels and ignoring the rest of the chart. You avoid lots of trading mistakes that way and you almost always get the chance to reenter in the right direction if a level gets busted.
Beginning to see that. My level got busted this morning. I had taken a few pips and then flipped into the rise. Then went back south at a new level.

Took a nice profit.
  • #2,613
  • Apr 23, 2013 8:11pm Apr 23, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Not that I know of, there are a few interviews on the net and the famous frontline show that I linked here but that one only pops up for a short time before his people find it and have it taken down. I have never found it anywhere where I can download it and have a copy for myself. Much of what I have read of him and seen in the various shows and interviews has really shaped my trading.
If anyone wants the "trader" doc PM me and I can send you the file.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #2,614
  • Apr 23, 2013 9:00pm Apr 23, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} Beginning to see that. My level got busted this morning. I had taken a few pips and then flipped into the rise. Then went back south at a new level. Took a nice profit.

added a bit more in asia. They thought they could fool me with that push up first. Lmao!
  • #2,615
  • Apr 24, 2013 1:26am Apr 24, 2013 1:26am
[quote=billytt;6631234]
Quoting buster48
Hi Seneca sorry to go back over old ground but on post 80 you put up a post about trading a bracket breakout from the high/low of the 3 1hr bars preceding the london open, Hi bud, SP wrote down his particular way of trading the breakout and it is good, i trade breakout but do not rely on the retrace as i believe it loses pips and trades. I would not come in this room and state that though. Try reading the book written by fisher, a good read. right,,, jpn now oopen and i will be trading breakout hopefully in a few minutes,...
Thanks for your post on my Question Billy,Im floundering a bit here,if you dont wait for a retest wouldent you be taking heaps of trades each day?how would you work it? Thanks for any input.
  • #2,616
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 24, 2013 3:01am | Edited 7:50am
SP,

I've got a question regarding choosing which pair to trade when multiple pairs trigger at around the same time. For instance, this morning:

EU - Triggered long off the daily open at 2:30/2:45, 30 min separation, then long triggered, previous week low also converged with this area / zone

EJ - Triggered short off daily open at 1:30 ish, 30 min separation, then short triggered

GU - Triggered short off the daily open at 1:15/1:30, 1st level hit was the weekly open but the rule was to never long below the daily open with the only exception being the previous day low, so im assuming the short off the daily open was the 1st trade triggered

GJ - Triggered short off the daily open at 1:30, 30 min separation, then short triggered

Now I have read you thread entirely and I do understand you trade the 1st trade triggered and hold that bias / direction / trade until it is invalidated by a stop out. I also understand that you will only take 1 GBP and 1 EUR trade at the same time, meaning you will not short GU / GJ at the same time since they are closely correlated.

Not every morning is like this but quite often you have the instance where multiple setups will trigger or setup at around the same time. I'm sure your 10 years experience comes into play here and does help a bit with reading price action and choosing the hot hand. I do have a few years experience and I do use the higher timeframe daily chart much in the same way that 60minuteman uses it.

ie.. using the previous days close (up or down) to guide you trade direction for the next day - trading in the direction of the previous days close

For example, I personally would prefer to short the EU versus longing it because the previous day closed down, just barely under the previous week low, but closed lower non the less and under the previous week low and also made a new lower low on the daily chart. I personally shorted the EU a few min ago after it broke the rolls price and then retraced up to 1.29942, which is about 3 pips off the daily open and I would like to see it pentrate or retest the PDL and at that point i will watch PA and either TP if price is weak or wait and see if I get a strong surge through the PDL, at which point i would probably TP on a strong surge through the level.

Now this is where your discretion and 10 years of experience come into play versus my 3 years of experience and I'm wondering if you ever been able to shape some rules around this area of your trading when selecting the setup to take.

Now on the other side of things, the outcome of any trade at the point of entry is uncertain. Maybe the best solution is to take the 1st trade triggered and if multiple trades setup at the same time, choose your best setup in your eyes, and win or lose, move on from there and dont beat yourself up over it........

Just some thoughts as i am watching PA this morning

EDIT: the EU short just worked out nicely, closed on the surge through at 1.29595. Its interesting how uncertainty messes with your psychology / mind. I guess this improves much with time and practice and awareness......anyway I'd like to hear your thoughts on this....great thread btw.....you & 60mm have tremendously improved my trading - thanks

2nd EDIT: Regarding the pairs above, my discretion on those setups would be the following but im not sure if this is correct or not
EU Long - I did not take because of the daily close and daily candle making a new low, I waited for the short
EJ Short - I dont wake up until 2am so I flat out didnt see it happen - Not sure what I would have done
GU Short - I would not sell the daily open after PA respected the weekly open, I would only short if it broke below then retested or long if PA broke up and then retested the daily open from above, which it did - personally didnt take it as i was short EU and dont like taking 2 USD pairs like this at the same time
GJ Short - Once again was not awake, but I like to see a little more separation that few pips, I personally like a surge lower, then retrace, GJ moved more sideways under the open line
  • #2,617
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:12am Apr 24, 2013 3:12am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,618
  • Edited 3:29am Apr 24, 2013 3:15am | Edited 3:29am
[quote=buster48;6631731]
Quoting billytt
{quote}Thanks for your post on my Question Billy,Im floundering a bit here,if you dont wait for a retest wouldent you be taking heaps of trades each day?how would you work it? Thanks for any input.
Hi bud, did you see what happened on e/j on the uk open, it flew down without retrace (yet) i believe e/u did too but i was only interested in ej. i also traded that long then short after the jpn open. You are thinking sensibley regarding taking heaps of trades a day. looking at e/j right now 09:11 it does look like the SP setup might take place regarding retrace. i only trade e/u g/u e/j and u/j and oil. but not at the same time and going off how much i have made i will then look at inside bar set up and levels. Do not trade every breakout but look for clues


i just looked at e/u,, some one just posted a chart, but can you see how it was boxed in for approx 18 hours, that is one big clue. like johnny just sid about nes release, they were waiting undecided then hey ho down it went. looks lkike panic to me
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,619
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:20am Apr 24, 2013 3:20am
Quoting OffshorePipn
{image}
An observation if I may sir!
Your short panned out because of German IFO data at 9:00UTC........ie bad results, Germany is struggling, Euro went down
So I could argue you got lucky with news; maybe you could say on a probability basis the figures were likely to be bad given all the recent talk out of Europe
Anyway on the plus side car sales are really suffering in Europe so discounted Golf GTIs will be on the way
Good trading!
  • #2,620
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:24am Apr 24, 2013 3:24am
[quote=billytt;6632034]
Quoting buster48
{quote} Hi bud, did you see what happened on e/j on the uk open, it flew down without retrace (yet) i believe e/u did too but i was only interested in ej. i also traded that long then short after the jpn open. You are thinking sensibley regarding taking heaps of trades a day. looking at e/j right now 09:11 it does look like the SP setup might take place regarding retrace. i only trade e/u g/u e/j and u/j and oil. but not at the same time and going off how much i have made i will then look at inside bar set up and levels....
Morning Billy
Nice short on EJ from 129.50 levels sir - do you trade 'round numbers' at all?
Good trading sir!
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