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  • #4,781
  • Apr 19, 2013 3:41pm Apr 19, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting DaGrizlyBull
Yup, CP sure is nice {image}
Sweet, target hit nicely.

Forgot I had an order open open on ECAD. Mobile notification is a great thing!

Only trade for the day.
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  • #4,782
  • Apr 21, 2013 4:26am Apr 21, 2013 4:26am
Those who were present at the last strategy review webinar (or have watched the recording) will recall I discussed ways to extract more R from FB's by zooming in to find SD zones that should hold on any retest which can lead to more logical SL placement and/or potential retest entries - both leading to higher R without decreasing the probability of the setup working out and thus a higher expectancy.

This is the typical process by which I look to trade these type of FB's too.

Here are 3 examples from last Thursday:

1. CADCHF M30

2 bar FB being the 2nd time back to supply and an FB of 2 swing high points - clearly a material FB with very strong rejection. Compression below to the left so the target would be the 2nd time back to the demand marked.

Zooming in to M5 you can see former demand and new supply marked - this is the typical structure you'll find when zooming into most FB's new supply and/or former demand (that caused the initial breakout).

Thus it is these stacked supply zones that collectively should hold on any retest. The first place price could react at iis of course the edge of the lower supply zone as per marked so this is where my entry would be - the safest SL is at the top arrow, i.e. above the second higher supply zone but given the zone DP at the scene of the FB @ 0.90965 and the edge of the lower zone just above (as marked with the arrow) I would expect this whole area to hold and thus my SL would be as per that middle arrow.
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  • #4,783
  • Apr 21, 2013 4:30am Apr 21, 2013 4:30am
2. GBPNZD M30

3 bar FB this this time of an SR area again clear rejection strength shown in forming the FB and a material FB in itself.

FLR would be the 1.8050 SR marked, though 4th time back so depending on how price moved into this area I'd likely look to run part of this trade up to the next supply.

Zooming into M5 we can see one overall demand zone that can be split into 2 parts, the source that lead to the break back up above the SR and former supply wicks that kept price below the SR for a period - forming stacked demand zones.

Thus once again it is these that should hold on any retest and of course the first place price could react at is the upper demand zone thus an entry there with SL below the lower demand is the most effective manner to trade this FB.
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  • #4,784
  • Apr 21, 2013 4:36am Apr 21, 2013 4:36am
3. NZDJPY M15

Strong move into causing the FB which as you know is not an initial good sign, however a) price hits clear demand in forming the FB, b) the FB is very material and obvious and c) the rejection strength shown in forming the 2 bar FB is again very clear.

So this information tells us that the move down was not demand consumption paving the way for that strong selling move to continue but indeed strong rejection strength (buying) from demand.

With the liquidity gap formed on the way down this also makes the path to the supply marked as an FLR pretty clear thus we know price should move with good momentum to our FLR.

Zooming into M1 this time we can see the same picture as previously discussed - former supply and new demand creating two stacked demand zones that should hold on any retest if the FB is to work out.

Entry at the first possible place price could react at (upper demand zone edge - which is ignored supply) with SL below either the lower zone edge or the clear source of demand that lead to the actual FB (which is where mine would be).
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  • #4,785
  • Apr 22, 2013 2:02am Apr 22, 2013 2:02am
possible FTBs?
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  • #4,786
  • Apr 22, 2013 12:55pm Apr 22, 2013 12:55pm
Bought GU @ 1.5240 and closed 2/2 @ 1.5270 for +60 pips (1.5R).
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  • #4,787
  • Apr 22, 2013 1:27pm Apr 22, 2013 1:27pm
Sold EA @ 1.2716 based on "Bull Trap". Still hovering near my entry.
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  • #4,788
  • Apr 22, 2013 2:03pm Apr 22, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting Balhana
Sold EA @ 1.2716 based on "Bull Trap". Still hovering near my entry. {image}
Cut it @ BE. It is 4:00 am.
  • #4,789
  • Apr 23, 2013 8:09am Apr 23, 2013 8:09am
Hi,
would like comments on this setup. My opinion was that it was invalidated by the support formed... obviously it worked out.

TIA
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  • #4,790
  • Apr 23, 2013 8:57am Apr 23, 2013 8:57am
Quoting MBatini
Hi, would like comments on this setup. My opinion was that it was invalidated by the support formed... obviously it worked out. TIA {image}
Hey, in your case the FTB order flow happened at (2), I would cancel my order after that (if I wanted to trade that setup). Close basing prior to entry means two things:

 

  1. It can break out with fast momentum straight through our SL
  2. It is an additional obstacle price has to move through


It may still work out, but it is usually not desirable to touch trade (due to RR). In this case, you could enter this moved based on a FB/Compression into supply (see chart for example).

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This can happen if a price has obstacles close to the entry. Took this several minutes ago, half risk for a partial loss.

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  • #4,791
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:07am Apr 23, 2013 10:07am
Quoting freeze
{quote}Hey, in your case the FTB order flow happened at (2), I would cancel my order after that ...
Hey freeze, thanks for comment. I am actually going trough one strategy at a time, so I do not take into account FB. I try to apply the concepts Mark shared and I am taking my time to 'digest' and apply them. I will stick to FTBs until confidence comes.

I am getting something in zone identification and DP pinpoint, like in the one attached.
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  • #4,792
  • Apr 23, 2013 10:19am Apr 23, 2013 10:19am
I took the same approach, I only began learning other PA after several weeks of studying FTBs. I didn't want to be overwhelmed with information.

I checked your DPs on a lower timeframe and they seem to be spot on, good job. I would be hesitant about touch trading a zone with such a mediocre breakout, but you seem to have done well with this one.
  • #4,793
  • Apr 23, 2013 1:17pm Apr 23, 2013 1:17pm
A few intraday setups... first one stands out, although I didn't take it.

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Second is one I took, though the entry was more of a hold&hope (although with little drawdown). The better entry would be at retest of the red supply.

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Still I think I prefer the consistent fast sure moves rather than holding and praying, but it's not always easy (yet).
  • #4,794
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:42am Apr 24, 2013 5:42am
Quoting pex
possible FTBs? {image} {image}
The zone on EG isn't clear enough for me, it's not what I would call a zone with substance and clear DP's marking it's edge.

UJ is a good location, but again the zone isn't clear enough neither is the SR there.
  • #4,795
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:47am Apr 24, 2013 5:47am
Quoting MBatini
Hi, would like comments on this setup. My opinion was that it was invalidated by the support formed... obviously it worked out. TIA {image}
My preferred method here is to cancel the setup or at the very least half my risk due to the reasons Freeze mentioned.
  • #4,796
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:10am Apr 24, 2013 6:10am
Quoting freeze
A few intraday setups... first one stands out, although I didn't take it. {image} Second is one I took, though the entry was more of a hold&hope (although with little drawdown). The better entry would be at retest of the red supply. {image} Still I think I prefer the consistent fast sure moves rather than holding and praying, but it's not always easy (yet).
I took the first M5 setup with M1 PA as entry (deeper test of demand, mini FB, strong rejection, CP just above etc) for +2.4R

Ha, I also had some 'luck' yesterday with news taking my EU short down hard and giving me positive slippage for +5.6R!
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  • #4,797
  • Apr 24, 2013 9:05am Apr 24, 2013 9:05am
Nice trading.

This just in – a 1min trade based on compression. Missed the first wedge due to work, but I did watch and trade the second.

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I'm starting to really like these wedges and compression.
  • #4,798
  • Edited 1:22pm Apr 24, 2013 12:56pm | Edited 1:22pm
Quoting lovejoy80
{quote} I took the first M5 setup with M1 PA as entry (deeper test of demand, mini FB, strong rejection, CP just above etc) for +2.4R Ha, I also had some 'luck' yesterday with news taking my EU short down hard and giving me positive slippage for +5.6R! {image} {image}
Hi LJ,

perfect trades... may I ask ? I think i marked all possible shorts ... why you decided wait and took last one ?... its sooo annoying i usually have to enter two or three times and results are in the end around 0.

thank you and take care.
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  • #4,799
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:46pm Apr 24, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting tinkerbelle
{quote} Hi LJ, perfect trades... may I ask ? I think i marked all possible shorts ... why you decided wait and took last one ?... its sooo annoying i usually have to enter two or three times and results are in the end around 0. thank you and take care. {image}
I don't see any of those that you marked as short setups, what would make you short any of those?

The first one is a definite no as I wouldn't go against a move like that, would want to see price show exhaustion signs first. The others are just meaningless from a PA perspective, just brief rejections but with no actual strength behind them.

Why short where I did:

1. Price had now shown signs of exhaustion after the very strong move up.
2. Price couldn't push higher on the bars I based my short on i.e. higher than the previous high.
3. There was now clear CP below.
4. The bar I based my short on was clear rejection off the 2 previous bullish bars (combined with this being a lower high than that previous high).
  • #4,800
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:30pm Apr 24, 2013 3:30pm
Some unsuccessful trades on USDJPY.

And for a change a 1hour trade on NZDUSD I was just watching.

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