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  • #791,141
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:00am Apr 24, 2013 6:00am
Quoting Z3iz3i
On eurusd 28, 35 and last 38 is where it likely may turn down on next hour if it cant close above those. Trick was to use European lunch time to squeeze shorts during thinner market time even though news from Germany were bad. But it should come to down test later (1.2988/98), maybe after European market close or if pair gets close below 1.3013. Should watch Yen crosses, usdjpy likely floats below Asian high. Its gets rough above and on eurjpy there will be be slip above 130 likely.

man time 2 time you disappear from here , good to see you back
Mohan
  • #791,142
  • Edited 6:28am Apr 24, 2013 6:05am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting sisse
...In any case, ECB in full control in the euro and rate cut is around the corner with awful macro numbers this month (including key Germany starting to struggle) and more important with inflation below undershooting expectations.
Hi man,

really glad you´ve showed up.

I am just reading some regarding that ratecut. Didnt think it was coming so far, as I still believe in CBs swap agreements and think BoJ is fuelling the cash. Nevertheless, as you put so compressed, data coming out of Europe aint good. Also I would say market expectations of ratecut are strong, for example Bloomy massages well .

Anyway, heavy monthly S here, ratecut would kinda change my plans. Though may happen banks just suck out the money to boost cracking sovereign debt and it wont result in weakness here.

Edit: Just to expand to the "wont result in weakness part", I am pointing to exporters, who should be the guys determining exchange rate . Imo enterprises dont want debt. They dont borrow cash for free now, why should they another ,25 points lower? It just gets stuck in sovereign debt, fuelling bubble. So may result in weakness on E/U due to banking sector shorts, not due to too much cash in system. In the end, inflation doesnt have to pick up.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #791,143
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:05am Apr 24, 2013 6:05am
Quoting cspip
{quote} Welcome Do what i am doing......reading the whole thread from the beginning
Thanks brother
  • #791,144
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:09am Apr 24, 2013 6:09am
hi folks!

i just begginned trading since february, and its extremely awesome!
This thread is cool ,really happy to see so much opinion about it.
I got +3 win posoitions since yesterday caused by the german news
What is your expectations for EUR/USD for the aternoon, including Core Durable Goods Order, how it will affect the market?
I got +3 win posoitions since yesterday caused by the german news
  • #791,145
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:10am Apr 24, 2013 6:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hi man, really glad you´ve showed up. I am just reading some regarding that ratecut. Didnt think it was coming so far, as I still believe in CBs swap agreements and think BoJ is fuelling the cash. Nevertheless, as you put so compressed, data coming out of Europe aint good. Also I would say market expectations of ratecut are strong, for example Bloomy massages well . Anyway, heavy monthly S here, ratecut would kinda change my plans. Though may happen banks just suck out the money to boost cracking sovereign debt and it wont...
I remember the last time it happened...from 1,3300 to 1,3500 within minutes...it was fun to trade
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #791,146
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:12am Apr 24, 2013 6:12am
Another Bank expects a rate cut
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #791,147
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:20am Apr 24, 2013 6:20am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I remember the last time it happened...from 1,3300 to 1,3500 within minutes...it was fun to trade

how could i forget s/l with 70 pip slip
Mohan
  • #791,148
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:25am Apr 24, 2013 6:25am
sorry i knew that only EU in here but i can see good chance.. isn't it?
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  • #791,149
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:26am Apr 24, 2013 6:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Hi man, really glad you´ve showed up. I am just reading some regarding that ratecut. Didnt think it was coming so far, as I still believe in CBs swap agreements and think BoJ is fuelling the cash. Nevertheless, as you put so compressed, data coming out of Europe aint good. Also I would say market expectations of ratecut are strong, for example Bloomy massages well . Anyway, heavy monthly S here, ratecut would kinda change my plans. Though may happen banks just suck out the money to boost cracking sovereign debt and it wont result...
Well my reading is that markets are not digesting (euro wise) that well the pre emptive ECB talk that has been so effective since Draghi is in charge.

So far they have flawlessly play the expectation card without ever (so far) been forced to put the money where their mouth is. This time, there is a mountain of both bad macro numbers and low inflation that completely lost political support all over the EZ for austerity without printing money to offset the cuts and Germany is election mode and wont overplay the "tough cop" card especially after the last poor macro numbers. ... We are back at square one (last ECB levels 1.295x) for the next ECB meeting and the message was clear then: "one more chance for numbers to turn around or cut" ...numbers has gone even worst

I agree that real weakness short term can be more than offset via Equities in manic mode, at all time highs and as long as we don't get the a solid top with prolly the high of year. In a rate cut, priority is for equities in the short term. However, the implications of a rate cut are always key for a currency mid and long term.

With no rate differentials between Euro and dollar, with US economy turning around and Europe in shambles, as soon inflation starts knocking the US door via exhaustion of QE and Europe inflation flirting with a deflationary/stagnate environment there is only one and only one direction to go ... so let see how things pan out next week . I would rather sell euro after equities find a top...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #791,150
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:34am Apr 24, 2013 6:34am
hi guys i ve been away from the thread for a bit was busy with family matters anyway eur/usd is in wave b from 1.32 and i think we ll see 1.2918 61.8 fib of the rally of wave a 1.2745-1.32
  • #791,151
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:36am Apr 24, 2013 6:36am
Another bank forecasts a rate cut next week.
>There won't be any rate cut.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #791,152
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:43am Apr 24, 2013 6:43am
Quoting nawafasad1
hi guys i ve been away from the thread for a bit was busy with family matters anyway eur/usd is in wave b from 1.32 and i think we ll see 1.2918 61.8 fib of the rally of wave a 1.2745-1.32
the chart to go with it.if wave b is finished we need the trend line to break to go long
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  • #791,153
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:46am Apr 24, 2013 6:46am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Well my reading is that markets are not digesting (euro wise) that well the pre emptive ECB talk that has been so effective since Draghi is in charge. So far they have flawlessly play the expectation card without ever (so far) been forced to put the money where their mouth is...
Gotta agree on all. I just love how you compress thoughts of market structure. Anyway, this would be for long debate, ofc pressure to cut is enormous but I still hope we will progress with austerity program in Europe and let those assets fall. How foolish I am. 97% of Spanish pension funds are held in Spanish government debt. Ofc they will cut so bastards get more cash and fuell sovereign debt bubble some more. I just hope, they are aware of the fact they are running out of bullets. And since BoJ now just used its bazooka, I would hope banksters got fed a bit and wont need ratecut that soon .

Btw, ft.com headline "Pressure mounts on ECB to cut rates"

Please show yourself more often.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #791,154
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:50am Apr 24, 2013 6:50am
To save my money i am going to set my SL at 1.3020
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #791,155
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:59am Apr 24, 2013 6:59am
Quoting mohan76
{quote} man time 2 time you disappear from here , good to see you back


Silly 13. Can't really trade any pair before that is solved on eurusd.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #791,156
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:09am Apr 24, 2013 7:09am
I think its more likely that the ECB discloses some hints of a new program to help Small and Medium size companies than a rate cut. Euro will soar on that.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #791,157
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:23am Apr 24, 2013 7:23am
Quoting SugarPink
I think its more likely that the ECB discloses some hints of a new program to help Small and Medium size companies than a rate cut. Euro will soar on that.
Yah it's soaring.
A technical failure from higher level.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #791,158
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:24am Apr 24, 2013 7:24am
ok fasten your seat belt, increase SL, ready to add more to your existing order... 5 mins left...
back... and more dangerous.
  • #791,159
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:25am Apr 24, 2013 7:25am
Seems like stops above 1.3028 was taken and we see profit release to downside. Short @1.3005 stop @1.3033 target @1.2947.
  • #791,160
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:26am Apr 24, 2013 7:26am
EUR/USD slipping under 1.30 ?
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