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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,561
  • Apr 23, 2013 4:45pm Apr 23, 2013 4:45pm
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,562
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:44am Apr 24, 2013 2:44am
Quoting shavilogarit
Hi all , now i see the Double Top at the USDJPY daily chart . here is picture. {image}[/url] And here is another picture where I draw the M and possible range of bearish chart action. {image}[/url] I have set pending order at price 96.75 At now kijun-sen is going horizontally and ichomoku's cloud is so thin Down to it , so i think that these are additional reversal signals - trend will go down !
I don't believe that is a complete double top as the previous high higher was 99.94 while the recent higher high was 99.88 i.e 6pips shy. What i do believe is that price would most likely hit the hundred mark this week. I love to know the outcome of monetary policy from Japan is. Whatever they decide, would definitely a positive effect on the yen or negative effect-then we would seethe yen hitting the hundred mark.
  • #33,563
  • Apr 24, 2013 2:46am Apr 24, 2013 2:46am
Quoting strategos
{quote} I don't believe that is a complete double top as the previous high higher was 99.94 while the recent higher high was 99.88 i.e 6pips shy. What i do believe is that price would most likely hit the hundred mark this week. I love to know the outcome of monetary policy from Japan is. Whatever they decide, would definitely a positive effect on the yen or negative effect-then we would seethe yen hitting the hundred mark.
Some of the biggest declining double tops I have seen are where the second point is slightly lower. Patterns are rarely symmetrical. The uncertainty of Japanese QE is why it can't break. It could work or it could cause a bond collapse
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #33,564
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:12am Apr 24, 2013 3:12am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Some of the biggest declining double tops I have seen are where the second point is slightly lower. Patterns are rarely symmetrical. The uncertainty of Japanese QE is why it can't break. It could work or it could cause a bond collapse
  • #33,565
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:27am Apr 24, 2013 3:27am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Some of the biggest declining double tops I have seen are where the second point is slightly lower. Patterns are rarely symmetrical. The uncertainty of Japanese QE is why it can't break. It could work or it could cause a bond collapse
I think that for trend reversal it is'nt neccesary the ideality of reversal pattern. This rule I know by my experience and by Steve Nison's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques where he very often says that for trend reversal it is'nt neccesary the ideality of reversal pattern . Here I uploaded picture for double top [IMG]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: double_bottom.jpg Size: 147 KB
[img=http://s4.postimg.org/pwy6lryah/double_bottom.jpg]
You can see that diference between this two prices is 8 pips , but all that trend reversed and go down. Additional signal for trend reversal here is the cross of Kijunsen and Tenkan sen where Tenkan sen went down
  • #33,566
  • Apr 24, 2013 3:48am Apr 24, 2013 3:48am
Quoting shavilogarit
{quote} I think that for trend reversal it is'nt neccesary the ideality of reversal pattern. This rule I know by my experience and by Steve Nison's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques where he very often says that for trend reversal it is'nt neccesary the ideality of reversal pattern . Here I uploaded picture for double top [IMG]{image} [img=http://s4.postimg.org/pwy6lryah/double_bottom.jpg] You can see that diference between this two prices is 8 pips , but all that trend reversed and go down....
  • #33,567
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:30am Apr 24, 2013 4:30am
Quoting ForexWhale (in the hour before the AP Twitter hack)
expecting a strong bearish move by 13:30 eastern
Note to self: pay attention to ForexWhale.
  • #33,568
  • Apr 24, 2013 4:38am Apr 24, 2013 4:38am
@ForexWhale
I think this pair will going up above 100 first before strong bearish, what do you think ?
Thanks for the advice
  • #33,569
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:17am Apr 24, 2013 5:17am
I wonder ,why most traders want pair to hit and break level 100 ?

Trade what you see , and do not see what you want to trade.
  • #33,570
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:38am Apr 24, 2013 5:38am
Quoting Elaktaby
I wonder ,why most traders want pair to hit and break level 100 ? Trade what you see , and do not see what you want to trade.
Thats exactly about !!!
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #33,571
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:52am Apr 24, 2013 5:52am
Quoting Elaktaby
I wonder ,why most traders want pair to hit and break level 100 ? Trade what you see , and do not see what you want to trade.
You like technicals over fundamentals it seems...that's fine.

Different people have different styles, approaches, and time frames.
  • #33,572
  • Apr 24, 2013 5:53am Apr 24, 2013 5:53am
Interesting article on the impact of the AP Twitter hack here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100666302
It doesn't explain why it was only the JPY pairs which reacted (and the AUD to a lesser extent), but Tokyo and Sydney were asleep at the time, so that algorithm trading (robots) had a free hand.
  • #33,573
  • Apr 24, 2013 6:14am Apr 24, 2013 6:14am
Quoting Gaxtin
{quote} You like technicals over fundamentals it seems...that's fine. Different people have different styles, approaches, and time frames.

both my friend technicals and fundamentals , they are ways of help , in forex it seems that you are trying to catch a fish, can you expect its way to escape from you??????


I am short @ 99.400 sl @99.900 , price action , technicals showing down trend , WAIT AND SEE
  • #33,574
  • Apr 24, 2013 7:55am Apr 24, 2013 7:55am
seems like UJ shrugged off the negative news. was hoping for more action.
  • #33,575
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:02am Apr 24, 2013 8:02am
This thing is in limbo thats for sure, classic bull vs bear fight.. Bulls are still in control as long as we hold above the 99 handle.

And for all of you wondering why only the jpy pairs crashed yesterday it is because of the yens safe haven status, people flee for the Yen in times of uncertainty.... FX101
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  • #33,576
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:12am Apr 24, 2013 8:12am
Quoting BobGnarly
This thing is in limbo thats for sure, classic bull vs bear fight.. Bulls are still in control as long as we hold above the 99 handle. And for all of you wondering why only the jpy pairs crashed yesterday it is because of the yens safe haven status, people flee for the Yen in times of uncertainty.... FX101
yes...with my limited knowledge, logically it should go south-east till Kuroda opens his mouth and give traders more confidence. IMO it is due for a big correction downwards..
  • #33,577
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:16am Apr 24, 2013 8:16am
Quoting Perrificatio
seems like UJ shrugged off the negative news. was hoping for more action.
me too...incredible how much market sentiment is risk-on right now. BOJ has got some muscle
  • #33,578
  • Apr 24, 2013 8:18am Apr 24, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Plofkip
Interesting article on the impact of the AP Twitter hack here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100666302 It doesn't explain why it was only the JPY pairs which reacted (and the AUD to a lesser extent), but Tokyo and Sydney were asleep at the time, so that algorithm trading (robots) had a free hand.
Despite what BobGnarly wrote, it is also possible that a threat in the White House was interpreted as the precursor to trouble in Korea; and that may have cause flight into the Yen.
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  • #33,579
  • Apr 24, 2013 10:42am Apr 24, 2013 10:42am
There's a good Divergence on H4 and Entry Sell position around 99.40/48 T/P1=99.27 T/P2=98.73 S/L=99.55
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #33,580
  • Apr 25, 2013 5:10pm Apr 25, 2013 5:10pm
There is an upward pointing pennant on UJ, easily visible on the H4 chart. If we see another rejection at 100 there is a distinct possibility........
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