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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,481
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:41am Apr 22, 2013 10:41am
Quoting namitak007
short @ 99.22 with tp 98.6

your selling i'm buying
  • #33,482
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:48am Apr 22, 2013 10:48am
Quoting brinks
{quote} your selling i'm buying
Well you must be working with tight SLs then! Well I opened both long and shorts. lets see how far I can manage!
  • #33,483
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:53am Apr 22, 2013 10:53am
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Well you must be working with tight SLs then! Well I opened both long and shorts. lets see how far I can manage!
no i will just keep adding on the way down
  • #33,484
  • Apr 22, 2013 11:17am Apr 22, 2013 11:17am
hello there, im so new here.
i visit this thread lot of couple times a day.
just want to say "intoduction here".

i play with market with divergence in all things only.

so i not play much although my TF is 5-15 minutes.
so much likely need you guys for the fibo level or issue for breakout and etc.

keep up the good work analyze guys !

  • #33,485
  • Apr 22, 2013 11:37am Apr 22, 2013 11:37am
Quoting brinks
{quote} no i will just keep adding on the way down
Cascade Sir, that's the way to do it , like oldschool trading ;DDDD. You add more to your trades on the bigger period trend watching for that margin to take whatever the market can throw at you .
I open at each 50 pips drop another position until my total trades reach a total of 7% of my balance and it that situation I can take also a big fall like it happened in the last 1 month and something. I didn't opened at 99.150 today because I see that the KijunSen on daily looks flat so that means that is in range and I'm not gonna trade that.

Cheers to you all ;D and green pips !
  • #33,486
  • Apr 22, 2013 2:48pm Apr 22, 2013 2:48pm
I read media articles to the effect that barrier options play a role in the behaviour of the USD/JPY around the 100 level.
I've been doing some reading around this topic, but I'm not getting to the bottom of it.
Can anyone explain this in a few lines, or point me in the direction of something to read?
Thx
PK
  • #33,487
  • Edited 3:29pm Apr 22, 2013 3:02pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting Plofkip
I read media articles to the effect that barrier options play a role in the behaviour of the USD/JPY around the 100 level. I've been doing some reading around this topic, but I'm not getting to the bottom of it. Can anyone explain this in a few lines, or point me in the direction of something to read? Thx PK
look at it as an option which springs into existence if the barrier is reached.
For example you get the right to buy UJ at 98 but only if in reaches 100 first.
Such a call option would be cheaper then a normal option.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #33,488
  • Apr 22, 2013 3:35pm Apr 22, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting USD-Bear
look at it as an option which springs into existence of the barrier is reached. For example you get the right to buy UJ at 98 but only if in reaches 100 first. Such a call option would be cheaper then a normal option.
Thx.
I can imagine that a significant proportion of USD/JPY barrier options would trigger at 100 (it's an obvious barrier to specify), but is the point that this would result in a wall of selling when 100 was reached or would it impact the market before 100 was reached? The media references seem to suggest that the existence of barrier options with a 100 trigger either mean that USD/JPY will struggle to reach 100 or will struggle to rise much above 100 when the trigger has been reached.
Grateful for any further insight.
PK
  • #33,489
  • Apr 22, 2013 3:45pm Apr 22, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting Plofkip
{quote} Thx. I can imagine that a significant proportion of USD/JPY barrier options would trigger at 100 (it's an obvious barrier to specify), but is the point that this would result in a wall of selling when 100 was reached or would it impact the market before 100 was reached? The media references seem to suggest that the existence of barrier options with a 100 trigger either mean that USD/JPY will struggle to reach 100 or will struggle to rise much above 100 when the trigger has been reached. Grateful for any further insight. PK
Yes, the influence on PA really depends on the strength of involved parties.
Assume I would sell a barrier option like mentioned in the example en you would buy it.
Assume further I'm big and you are small (assumption).
In that case it would be my interest to let UJ not touch the 100 barrier, so I might try to keep the price below 100.
If I wouldn't succeed and the option triggers by PA at 100, there is no reason to get it below 100 again.
So the influence in this example is, price pressure down below 100 and up above 100
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #33,490
  • Apr 22, 2013 3:56pm Apr 22, 2013 3:56pm
[IMG]http://s22.postimg.org/ywivw3ivl/Untitledsds.jpg
print screen windows 7


At this moment, EURUSD chart is looking like this picture . can anyone ask my questions ?
1.Why didn't trend change direction after appear of Hanging man 1 ?
2.Why didn't trend change direction after appear of Hanging man 2 followed to Hanging man 1 ?
3.Now I have opened short position at price 99.43 , because there is Hanging Man at the bottom of up trend and ichimoku cloud is so thin down to it and with
my prediction due to this chart the likelihood of downtrend is more than an up trend
4.In the monthly chart trend is looking like this :

[IMG]http://s15.postimg.org/xpkunywl7/Untitledsdsdsd.jpg
capture screen

Here is absolutely opposite situation.It seems that trend must break ichimoku clouds's senkou span B edge and it will be rally, Does this comes in resistance with my prediction to weekly chart ?
Do i opened short pisition correctly ? will up trend "neglect" the Hangin man 3 liki other two ? please answer me anyone
  • #33,491
  • Apr 22, 2013 4:06pm Apr 22, 2013 4:06pm
Quoting USD-Bear
So the influence in this example is, price pressure down below 100 and up above 100
Got it.
Thx.
(I'm not sure everyone writing about it in the media understands it that clearly. Glad I asked.)
PK
  • #33,492
  • Apr 22, 2013 9:35pm Apr 22, 2013 9:35pm
Quoting namitak007
short @ 99.22 with tp 98.6
Closed shorts now waiting for longs to close in green!
  • #33,493
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:11pm Apr 22, 2013 10:11pm
exisiting home sales must be bad cos it has reached the 98.7 mark.
  • #33,494
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:55pm Apr 22, 2013 10:55pm
it's really not good for UJ. I think I am gonna hit my SL soon!c
  • #33,495
  • Apr 22, 2013 11:24pm Apr 22, 2013 11:24pm
In the last several months we have seen a relatively painless run from the 76 handle on Usd/Jpy. A few days ago the new BOJ Governor, Kuroda says that they have 'done all that is necessary and possible for now.' I hear a comment like that and it gets my attention as it also grabs the attention of the market. If you notice that comment comes out just as USDJPY is testing and failing what many in the market feel ( and I agree) is at a huge technical level, 100.00 Remember this move from the 76 level was without a doubt hugely if not entirely driven by the premiss, the promises, and now the initial execution of a monumental BOJ policy shift to kick deflation in the ARSE. With that said the most recent comments from Kuroda about doing all that is necessary and possible for now appears to be potentially powerful enough considering the rapid and enormous rise we have experienced over the last 5 months, the massive build of expectations into Kuroda’s first BOJ meeting in which they delivered BIG TIME, combined now with the lack of answers as to what’s next, to potentially set up the Yen for a decent retrace.

At the end of this week on Friday we head into more BOJ events with both the meeting minutes and the press conference on deck. So as we the Yen fights the fine fight with the 100.00 level, the catalysts for a break or breakdown in my opinion becomes the "whats next" phenomenon. I'm expecting the market to have big expectations from Kuroda and company again. Will they deliver again or disappoint? That will be debatable until we find out. If in fact they have "done all that they can for now" holds true they we could witness the first painful retracement that may not be as shallow as the previous ones during this rapid and massive move up and maybe we all get the opportunity to reload at very attractive prices. If they do deliver once again after getting the nod from the G20 meetings then say hello to the 100.00 and beyond. Should be fun either way. These are just some fundamental mumbo jumbo nuggets that I share with my colleagues and friends and in no way constitutes as trading advice. Its important to do your own analysis and trade your own plan. Make a great day and may we all make bank!!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #33,496
  • Apr 23, 2013 1:12am Apr 23, 2013 1:12am
I see a thin chance of 100. I still feel there will be a fall till 97 before going for 100
  • #33,497
  • Apr 23, 2013 1:51am Apr 23, 2013 1:51am
Hello

Any ideas on the YEN

Anybody know

Hate these retraces,keep saying I will take some profit of my longs

Come on YEN masters throw a bit off money around

and get things moving
  • #33,498
  • Apr 23, 2013 5:37am Apr 23, 2013 5:37am
Quoting eliteincome
Hello Any ideas on the YEN Anybody know Hate these retraces,keep saying I will take some profit of my longs Come on YEN masters throw a bit off money around and get things moving
I am at the edge of SLs. I just wish they don't get hit. I was expecting a 99.5 till the end of the day but seems it's not coming so easily!
  • #33,499
  • Apr 23, 2013 6:15am Apr 23, 2013 6:15am
Quoting namitak007
I see a thin chance of 100. I still feel there will be a fall till 97 before going for 100
I feel it can go down further to support at 96.xxx
  • #33,500
  • Apr 23, 2013 7:10am Apr 23, 2013 7:10am
this pairs seems hit the double top at 99.90, will it drop from there forever ? or will it go and test again 100 ?
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