EurAnalysis

EUR/USD rebound limited to 1.3040 after EMU and US data

The EUR/USD was able to find support at 1.3016 low at its down move on the New York opening after the release of US Chicago Fed data and ahead of EMU confidence and US existing home sales. The rebound reached 1.3040 after the publication of an upside surprise for the Eurozone and a disappointing US housing figure.

The preliminary release of consumer confidence in April rose from -23.50 to -23.30 instead of falling further to -23.85. Data is at its lowest level since July 2012, -21.5. Instead of improving to 5.01M in March, US existing home sales fell from 4.95M to 4.92M, disappointing analysts. February data was revised lower from 4.98M to 4.95. US Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from 0.76 to -0.23 in March. The February figure was revised higher from 0.44. Consumer confidence in the EMU is expected to drop from -23.50 to -23.85 in April.

FXstreet.com independent analyst Valeria Bednarik adds ECB’s Constancio comments regarding a possible rate cut from ECB next month as a downside pressure for the EUR/USD today, forcing a move towards 1.3000. “The hourly chart shows price well below 20 SMA while indicators head south below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also bearish, with momentum crossing the 100 level and RSI accelerating below 50”, she wrote, adding that a break of 1.3000 should trigger stops and favor a stronger slide in the pair, with 1.2935 then at sight for today.

Chart Levels


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366641832

External Risks to E/U remain

The euro is overvalued against the dollar, James Wood-Collins, CEO of Record Currency Management said. The "existential risks" to the euro from the debt crisis have not disappeared and, if anything, the lack of fiscal and banking union is likely to hamper the euro's prospects, Wood said. Expectations of an ECB rate cut have been growing since the April meeting when Draghi said the bank stood "ready to act" to boost growth in the euro zone.

What already? ITALY PRESIDENT NAPOLITANO THREATENS TO RESIGN IF POLITICIANS FAIL TO MEET RESPONSIBILITIES ON REFORMS. Needs his nap

EUR Tech trader I follow

Short @67

Short came close to the recent range lows by 1.3000 today. A scraggly looking topping formation is threatened with daily Slow Stochs having rolled over and the upper 21-day Bolli rejecting recent range highs. A break below the 21-DMA, last by 1.2970, would signal a slide toward the lower 21-day Bolli just below our target.

My long @48 is starting to smile.

Glad I didnt use a SL.

30M PA may provide demand zone at 43 so We will see if it turns to green pips on a blast through

Also glad that I followed the MM Price Saturation Zone and didnt add another short on top of the one I have @1.2990. Even though the indos at the time said Ms Market is going down. She ALWAYS laughs at what I think and sometimes plays tricks on the indos.

MM is the only constant...

THINKING about a short here. Even though indos go with long.

HSR @50 is tough cookie and indos are always backward looking.

Short @46

Reason:

PA dropped below 5 SMA RSI3 under 50

Also HSR at 50 is tough.

Still have long @48 so Ms Market can pip me either way....

EUR shorts continued to retreat – Rabobank

The single currency remains in the negative ground on Monday, hovering over 1.3050 after hitting session highs around 1.3085 on the Italian election results.

According to the last CFTC COT report, Strategist Jane Foley at Rabobank argued that investors continued to scale back their EUR short positions last week. “EUR/USD remains above the 1.30 handle but speculation about the possibility of an ECB rate cut fueled by comments from Weidmann still lingers”, added Foley.

Regarding the greenback, the expert commented, “USD longs fell slightly again this week but in a historical context they remain strong”.

Out of long @48 +10

Reason:

The PA in the relation to 5 & 15 SMA was still a go and so was the RSI3 at +50

However 30 PA entered supply zone and I have another long @ 90 which is 34 pips away

Price Saturation Zone is now 42 so I am happy with this.

Oh JD you could have more pips. Yea take that greed talk and stick it where the sun dont shine.

If Ms Market gives you a spike after wallowing all day take the money and run...

I'm short at 50...looking to reload at session highs. Anything else on your agenda for the days trade?

Thanks very much for all the info you send...even if no responses, I'm reading and being educated...so please don't stop brother!

You da man!

Thanks Brother. You made me smile.

I think your short is safe. I am with you @46 and not concerned at all. Some data gets released tonight Euro PMI which so push it in one direction for another.



03:00 AM US EASTERN http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/i...2/flag-eur.png EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (APR A) Medium

EUR to consolidate watch E/J in focus

 

1. The EUR/USD opens Asia within 20 pips of 1.3050 for fifth straight trading day
2. EUR/JPY flows are the main driver of EUR/USD direction
3. Talk of Asia central bank reserve diversification supporting EUR/USD on dips
4. Growing consensus that ECB will have to ease limiting the upside
5. Support formed at 1.3000/05 while 55-day MA at 1.3080 near-term resistance

EUR Techs Head and Shoulder pattern form

 

1. Sideways consolidation for past couple of weeks around 50 day MA
2. Head & Shoulders pattern forming with neckline currently just above 1.30
3. 4hr candle close below the neckline will activate the pattern, targets 128.4
4. 200 day MA at 1.294 seen as first support after 1.30
5. Holding below 200 day MA will likely indicate new lows below April 4 low
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/res57t
7. See (More) for more

EUR/USD – Waiting for Direction Around 1.3050

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130422/...around-1-3050/

Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366677079

EUR/USD orderboard

 

1. On the topside there are offers 1.3080 through to 1.3100, with stops above 1.3105/10.
2. Bids initially around 1.0345 but larger size 1.0300/20.

We get flash estimates for Eurozone manufacturing PMIs in early Europe later today, France (0700GMT), Germany (0730GMT) and Eurozone (0800GMT) are the most important.

nothing new .. all equal to friday ... seems to me more north .. but I will be stopped at these levels ...

Pretty much bro.

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 April vs. 51.6 March (Survey: 51.5)