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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #2,521
  • Apr 22, 2013 9:49am Apr 22, 2013 9:49am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} There are a few things in play with this trade. You aren't necessarily wrong to have taken it, however here are some things to think about. The first trade of the day was short. My play here is to hold and try to get a break of the level. I will always take a low or high if it is the first trade of the day but when a trade is already running it isn't as clear a choice. The NY close and low of the day on Friday were very close together and the bounce at the NY close price could be seen as a test of the low. Once price broke below the level...

SP, would the first test of that level from below (Friday low, weekly close) not have been enough reason for a quick short?
  • #2,522
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:00am Apr 22, 2013 10:00am
Does anybody here trade 'completely naked'? By that I mean bare charts/no indies/ignore most things! (if you like to trade in the buff that's fine by me too, just keep it to yourself)
I was just reading a thread by an english guy called Bleek who made a fortune in a small space of time, then the muppets on here p!ssed him off. Anyway, interesting strategy and his mindset involved:
- ignore trends, don't even plot them
- ignore S/R in the typical sense of the word
- ignore news and fundamentals
- ignore every single indicator
- trade numbers and not charts
- incredibly tight (risky) stops
I was inspired so looked at a bare chart (below) Anybody with half a brain would have sold that on the break of 130, wouldn't they? How f**king simple is that!!
Thoughts from the intelligent crew????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4.png Size: 22 KB
  • #2,523
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:06am Apr 22, 2013 10:06am
Quoting kk007
Hi SP, As you said, you didn't use the testing account the same way as your main real account. You took a lot more risk in your testing account to get the monthly growth rate of 25%+. I would like to ask, what is the monthly growth rate of your real account?
I traded the test account exactly as I traded my real account except for the one day experimenting with the weekly levels and leveraging for that one trade. I still didn't risk any more than four or five percent on that trade structure. I closed the account to the public last week as I wanted to do another test with EJ in much the same way and it just paid out a few minutes ago. As I stated several times I was trading a three hundred plus dollar account with only ten cent per pip positions. I was only leveraged at less than four to one. The point of showing the explorer was to demonstrate that you do not have to risk two percent per entry to make good returns. Please note that the risk of ruin stats for the account were indicative of the low risk being employed. It would have taken twenty four straight losses to lose even ten percent of the account.I had only one loss during the entire four weeks that was more than one percent and it was 1.2%. I will be reopening the new account soon. I am in the process of changing brokers and I will hopefully be up and running quickly.

The only difference between the test and real accounts is that I risk even less for real money. I typically risk only between .25 and .5 % per trade. I still manage to make about three to eight percent on average per week. Remember I take a lot of trades that I don't cover here and they are small hits but very good hit rate. I may some day do a website or a live room to teach other stuff but this thread is already a full time job and I am not getting anything for my time. This is a losing proposition for me at present.
  • #2,524
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:09am Apr 22, 2013 10:09am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Tell me about it... Cut through the weekly open/close like it was nothing. How long do you stick with a pair on a day like this before moving on? Any way to see a wasted session ahead?
GU is nearly always a pain in the ass with normal levels. It has a mind of its own, however I love it around its own close.
  • #2,525
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:11am Apr 22, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Xhale
{quote} 24.8473845%
LOOL
Simplicity is the ultimate in sophistication ~ Leonardo Da Vinci
  • #2,526
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:13am Apr 22, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I traded the test account exactly as I traded my real account except for the one day experimenting with the weekly levels and leveraging for that one trade. I still didn't risk any more than four or five percent on that trade structure. I closed the account to the public last week as I wanted to do another test with EJ in much the same way and it just paid out a few minutes ago. As I stated several times I was trading a three hundred plus dollar account with only ten cent per pip positions. I was only leveraged at less than four to one....
I will add that I don't normally use the test account in the same way as my normal trading. The test account is where I test things and get the gambling stuff out of my system. I cannot trade the test account like my real ones because it is there for me to blow off steam and practice new stuff. I did it for four weeks and it was killing me. I had to take it back. Once I have switched brokers I will be able to auto trade my real account from the new thousand dollar one I am setting up. I will then have my test account to play in and can return to my normal levels of sanity.
  • #2,527
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:17am Apr 22, 2013 10:17am
Quoting stevexyg
{quote} Chris are we thinking atall along the lines of 'exhaustion' with a potential bounce off a previous daily level? There was only a 30pip drop from LO/DO to this level. If it was closer to an 80pip drop away would we have had more confidence in it? If it was 100% of ADR away I think we can say that increases the chances of a bouce but 30 vrs 80 pips any bearing?
If it was eighty pips away I would actually be more apt to take the long. The short off the daily open would have already taken place and we would be close enough to ATR that I would see more room to go up. Does that make sense?
  • #2,528
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:20am Apr 22, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Alpe
{quote} Your first trigger is from the daily open or ORB? What is your usual trading start hour? Alpe
I start at midnight eastern. Price came down to the rolls but didn't trigger. Might have been close enough for some but it missed the line. If you took that it made over twenty pips and that isn't a bad trade. The first trade for me would have been the Daily open. The ORB and the levels have no bearing on each other they are two separate trading strats employed in two different accounts.
  • #2,529
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:23am Apr 22, 2013 10:23am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Tell me about it... Cut through the weekly open/close like it was nothing. How long do you stick with a pair on a day like this before moving on? Any way to see a wasted session ahead?
GU actually didn't go far enough down to stop out on the weekly close this AM it just refuses to go up. The first trade of the day triggered would have been a long off the close price from last week.
  • #2,530
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:25am Apr 22, 2013 10:25am
Quoting fisheggs
{quote} LOOL
Xhale
  • #2,531
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:37am Apr 22, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I traded the test account exactly as I traded my real account except for the one day experimenting with the weekly levels and leveraging for that one trade. I still didn't risk any more than four or five percent on that trade structure. I closed the account to the public last week as I wanted to do another test with EJ in much the same way and it just paid out a few minutes ago. As I stated several times I was trading a three hundred plus dollar account with only ten cent per pip positions. I was only leveraged at less than four to one....
Thanks a lot for explaning in so much details.
  • #2,532
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:45am Apr 22, 2013 10:45am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} If it was eighty pips away I would actually be more apt to take the long. The short off the daily open would have already taken place and we would be close enough to ATR that I would see more room to go up. Does that make sense?
Yes completely, thanks.
  • #2,533
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:47am Apr 22, 2013 10:47am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} If it was eighty pips away I would actually be more apt to take the long. The short off the daily open would have already taken place and we would be close enough to ATR that I would see more room to go up. Does that make sense?
Chris, could you elaborate a bit on what you mean with "being close enough to ATR" and this giving the green light for a long in this case?

Sorry, if this sounds too elementary, but what would be simple to explain in person is sometimes cryptic over the wires... I'm sure I'm missing something very simple here.
  • #2,534
  • Apr 22, 2013 10:57am Apr 22, 2013 10:57am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Chris, could you elaborate a bit on what you mean with "being close enough to ATR" and this giving the green light for a long in this case? Sorry, if this sounds too elementary, but what would be simple to explain in person is sometimes cryptic over the wires... I'm sure I'm missing something very simple here.
'Average trading range' - if price on EU trades around a 100 pip range each day then if it has moved 95 pips up since the open then it is more likely to turn back towards the open than continue up for another 45pips. That's a general observation and doesn't mean that it will never go 140 pips or even 250 in a big day.
  • #2,535
  • Apr 22, 2013 11:12am Apr 22, 2013 11:12am
hi guys, hope you had a good day, it was like taking sweets/candy off a child as they say..lol. Who ever asked about ATR, you can either work it out yourself or get an indie to do it.. I am not a trader of Average history like how a lot of indies work but to average out the range is very useful, once a trade goes in your favour you can see potential exit points or even get in .Its funny i even mentioned this several hours earlier in a different thread. anyway be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,536
  • Apr 22, 2013 12:11pm Apr 22, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting jonnypants
Thoughts from the intelligent crew????
ah you were directing this at me? ofcourse. well I'd say it sounds like tossing a coin. give it a try why not. before you put any money on it have a look again on the same chart for trades that didn't work out. its easy to see winning trades on yesterdays chart. a different ball game trading it live.
  • #2,537
  • Apr 22, 2013 12:47pm Apr 22, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Chris, could you elaborate a bit on what you mean with "being close enough to ATR" and this giving the green light for a long in this case? Sorry, if this sounds too elementary, but what would be simple to explain in person is sometimes cryptic over the wires... I'm sure I'm missing something very simple here.
If the average range of the past five days is 100 pips and the price has gone down eighty or ninety then I am more confident in a long trade at a level holding at that point if the trade is counter to the trend. Obviously I wouldn't want to take a short trade on a breakout that exceeds the ATR. Of course the market can go anywhere and does not really care about ATR but we are talking averages and what works statistically here.
  • #2,538
  • Apr 22, 2013 1:31pm Apr 22, 2013 1:31pm
[quote=Seneca pilot;6627107]{quote} Of course the market can go anywhere and does not really care about ATR but we are talking averages and what works statistically here.[/quote

true true, another thing that helps is caculate the range of the actual 8 hour market ie jpn,us.uk market AND calculate the 24 hout time period range and work off that. Other time perods can be calculated too it all helps,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,539
  • Apr 22, 2013 1:59pm Apr 22, 2013 1:59pm
The physiological aspect of trading 'live', when 'real' money..., your own money is at stake, is something most people can't handle. If you can't afford to lose it..., don't loan it/play it/gamble it. If you are not willing to educate yourself..., find a worthy charity and just give your money to them. I have not yet been able to begin to trade due to the 'nest egg' thing. When I do, I will not use money I cannot afford. Which is why I have played the 'demo's' and researched the FX and spent countless hours watching training video.

I am not overly competitive with other people. Although I do not like lose, I know that losing is a learning tool to anyone wise enough to learn from their mistakes. I have made 924 trades on 27 different demo accounts with 65 lost trades, that is 859 winning trades. Of these 27 demo accounts, I have won 100% of the trades made on eleven of them. My current best 'winning streak' is 128 winning trades. In 112 trading days, I have made $283,000.00 on these demo accounts. Would have been higher, but between work and getting bored, it is what it is.

When I opened my first demo, I made 56 trades in twelve hours. I won 54 of them. I lost $800.00 on the two losing trades, but made $16,080.00 on the other 54. I thought I was doing something wrong. I called the Brokerage where the training disks were purchased and asked what I had done wrong. The guy I talked to said I didn't do anything wrong, it must just be 'beginner's luck'. Still, I didn't open another demo for about three months. I still won. I talked to another brokerage and they wanted to know if I had a 'crystal ball'. Of the 27 demo accounts I have tracked, I have traded at a little bit above a 91% win ratio.

Everything and everyone seemed to say I could not and should not win. Well, 'they' are wrong. You can win and do it consistently..., if you educate yourself and know you are not going to win every trade. You can't be afraid. Sometimes you just have to 'cut bait' and throw the hook in..., sometimes, you have to cut the line to save the pole.

Bottom line is, if you are afraid of losing, you most likely will lose it all. Loss is a part of life. If we place no value in a thing, there is nothing to be learned. It is when we place value in something, and it is lost to us, we can reflect and see what we could or should have done differently. Learn from the loses thrust upon you, regardless of what they are, and don't be afraid to try. The only way you can truly fail is to fail to try.
  • #2,540
  • Apr 22, 2013 3:23pm Apr 22, 2013 3:23pm
[quote=Guardmaker;6627224]The physiological aspect of trading 'live', when 'real' money..., your own money is at stake, is something most people can't handle. If you can't afford to lose it..., don't loan it/play it/gamble it. If you are not willing to educate yourself...,

very interesting, but as you do not trade real money you cannot really speak about trading.There is a monstrous differance. Once you trade with real hard cash i will definatley be prepared to listen to you. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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