EurAnalysis

Downside favoured for the euro

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JK on FX

Short video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/

THINKING about taking a long.

Reason: PA above 5 SMA , closing in on 15 SMA and RSI# +50

However 30M PA near resistance and 1M has red candles so will wait for a change

Long @ 48

Reason PA above 5&15 SMA RSI3 +50

30M PA still fighting resistance but gaining but not near FIBs or Supply zone

1M white candle

EUR tech

EURUSD: No change: “After stalling for several days at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the Jul’12 low to the Feb’13 high at 1.3075, the EURUSD had surged to its highest level since February 25, when the inconclusive Italian election results were announced. But the bullish momentum was short-lived, with the pair falling right back below 1.3075 within a day. The daily RSI uptrend is starting to falter, suggesting that a big move higher will be necessary to sustain a near-term bullish outlook. For now, further upside should be capped by 1.3200/05, at which point 1.3245/325 should be a major zone of resistance above. Declines should be supported by the 8-EMA/21-EMA confluence zone at 1.3020/65, and given retail sentiment, we expect the EURUSD rally to continue.”

EUR Sticks To Middle of Range

 

1. EUR/USD -0.2%; GBP/USD -0.01%; USD/JPY -0.06%; EUR/JPY -0.3%
2. Crosses, expiries help keep EUR/USD in middle of 1.30-1.31 range
3. Offers @ 1.5250, looming U.K. GDP number weigh on cable
4. USD/JPY still threatening 100.00, EUR/JPY techs point toward 1.32 area
5. Largely data-free day: existing home sales 14.00GMT Monday
6. EUR/JPY chart: http://link.reuters.com/rep57t

Key Events In the Week Ahead

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ues-week-ahead

EUR Tech Trader I follow

Short @ 67

Bearish action at the start of a new week eyes levels back below 1.3000. The 21 DMA is the next key level in favor of short trades. Seeing the 200 DMA at 1.2933 under pressure would not be a surprise. Lower stops on a break of the 21 DMA to reduce risk on the trade. Day indicators are bearish.

EUR Overnight Rally Now Wiped Clean

 

1. EURphoria over Italian election news short lived as EUR/USD down for the day
2. Fed's Dudley says Europe's near term econ outlook less bright, weighs on EUR
3. Smart money selling EUR/GBP drags EUR/USD to 1.3022 low
4. Bids at 1.3020 & 1.3000 with stops below, if no rally soon stops may attract
5. Through 1.30 immediate support sits 1.2962/68 (Apr 8 low, 21 DMA)
6. Bigger support will be 1.2900/3 (Apr 5 low, 200 DMA)
7. Beyond 1.2900 opens up March & April lows ~ 1.2740/50
8. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/syq57t

eurusd is vulnerable here for drop into at least 1.2919/28 / usdjpy support likely at 98.95-99.12 / audusd estimated supportat 1.0186-1.0215

EUR Slide deepens as Coeure chimes in

 

1. ECB's Coeure says hasn't seen improved econ signs since last ECB meeting
2. Could be a sign rate cut rhetoric may pick up
3. EUR/USD slides to new session low at 1.3015
4. Bids still rest 1.3000 with stops below, 1.2960/70 eyed on 1.30 break
5. A 1.2900 break puts April low ~ 1.2750 into play
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/kar57t

EUR/USD tech levels 22 April

Well the euro seems to stuck in a rut at the moment. Bar fleeting moves either side we have spent most of this month in about a 100 pip range. There’s been no real impetus from the market to take us in either direction. In such instances it becomes very difficult to trade. You position yourself to take advantage of a break only to see it fail. We’re in the realms of a non-trending market and that in itself can present plenty of opportunity. Look to trade the edges of the range with tight stops in case of a breakout.
We’re still being kept at bay by the 50 fib level from the Jan/Apr hi/lo at 1.3227 and on the H4 chart we can see that the 100 ma has crossed the 200 ma which could indicate a break to the upside is more likely that one to the downside. The 55 ma is still pretty much keeping us in check in quiet times over the last week and the 100 and 200 ma are creeping up on the downside at 1.2991 for the 100 and 1.2973 for the 200.
http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...13-330x171.png


Other levels to note are the 100, 200 H1 & 55 d ma’s which are still entwined around the 1.3085/90 level and should provide sellers with a decent point to lean against in the near term.
With well known support at 1.3020 and orders at 1.3000 then again these will mark decent points for those wishing to go long.

EUR at S1 on daily here and Demand Zone

EUR provide alternative strategies – UBS

UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead.

In particular, the EUR/USD maintains a neutral outlook, as there is a support at 1.2974, ahead of 1.2920, meanwhile resistance lies at 1.3228. In terms of the EUR/CHF, resistance is at 1.2213, onto 1.2230 – there is a significant support at 1.2151 as only a break below this would be a major bearish development, suggesting a neutral intraday view.

Moving to the EUR/GBP, there is a bullish bias, as the cross came under pressure from resistance at 0.8648. A closing break above would open 0.8747, while downside should be limited and support is at 0.8497. The EUR/JPY is also bullish in the near-term. Indeed, the focus is on resistance at 132.05, though a break above this would expose 134.38. Conversely, support is at 128.06, ahead of 126.04.

EUR/USD pressured ahead of EMU and US data

The EUR/USD is pressuring the downside as the EMU consumer confidence is due and the US National Association of Realtors gets ready to publish March existing home sales at 14:00 GMT. The pair is already down to 1.3021 low, -0.21% on the day.

US Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell from 0.76 to -0.23 in March. The February figure was revised higher from 0.44. Consumer confidence in the EMU is expected to drop from -23.50 to -23.85 in April.

“The EUR/USD currency pair is trying to form an ascending structure to continue its correctional movement”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov. “We think, today the price may form another descending structure to reach the level of 1.2940. This structure will help us to define future scenario”, he added, expecting a fifth descending wave with the target at 1.2700.

Home sales 4.92 M expected 5.01M

EU Consumer Confidence improves to -22.3 in Apr from -23.5 in Mar

Us existing home sales mom (mar) fell 0.6% vs 0.4% expected and revised to 0.2% from 0.8%.

E/U in demand zone now @ 32

Pipnography for Pip Pervs


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