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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,421
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:10am Apr 19, 2013 4:10am
Speculative but interesting.

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  • #33,422
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:15am Apr 19, 2013 4:15am
Quoting whatever007
Speculative but interesting. {image}
what conclusion would you draw from that?
  • #33,423
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:44am Apr 19, 2013 4:44am
Quoting 1candlepower
what conclusion would you draw from that?
Bearish gartley formation, short at 99.2, countertrend.
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  • #33,424
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:45am Apr 19, 2013 4:45am
Quoting 1candlepower
... seems like only thing keeping boj from trashing the yen is a signal of approval of the international community. ...
Exactly.
  • #33,425
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:48am Apr 19, 2013 4:48am
Quoting whatever007
Bearish gartley formation, short at 99.2, countertrend.
think i'll stay long for now. .uj nicely confined to new channel defined by 2245 est yesterday and high at 355 est today. new earliest cross of 100 moved up to 0915 est this morning.

most recent one day move up under similar conditions (the yen commiseration trade) was 300 pips, so we may go well past 100.

but time will tell
  • #33,426
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:02am Apr 19, 2013 5:02am
Quoting 1candlepower
think i'll stay long for now. .uj nicely confined to new channel defined by 2245 est yesterday and high at 355 est today. new earliest cross of 100 moved up to 0915 est this morning. most recent one day move up under similar conditions (the yen commiseration trade) was 300 pips, so we may go well past 100. but time will tell
Don't blame you one bit, like i said countertrend. Looking for some profit taking and or another weak day in US markets.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #33,427
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:14am Apr 19, 2013 6:14am
Quoting 1candlepower
think i'll stay long for now. .uj nicely confined to new channel defined by 2245 est yesterday and high at 355 est today. new earliest cross of 100 moved up to 0915 est this morning. most recent one day move up under similar conditions (the yen commiseration trade) was 300 pips, so we may go well past 100. but time will tell
.uj cleanly confined by top and bottom rails now on way to 100+
  • #33,428
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:54am Apr 19, 2013 6:54am
first in and first out gets the price
  • #33,429
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:05am Apr 19, 2013 7:05am
I have been on the side lines all week, I hate trading in choppy conditions, back on the ride for 100... Then 105 then...
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  • #33,430
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:59am Apr 19, 2013 7:59am
ave of 3 chops per .uj consolidation lately... should move soon. i'm guessing 99.75 is next. (assuming no news of course)
  • #33,431
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:04am Apr 19, 2013 8:04am
What makes you think that?

I never thought it would make 100 today, most likely next week.
  • #33,432
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:07am Apr 19, 2013 8:07am
stupid games, not clear who is fighting what - cannot move 100 pips more
  • #33,433
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:14am Apr 19, 2013 8:14am
The G20 is stalling everything.

Everyone is sitting out waiting.
  • #33,434
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:14am Apr 19, 2013 8:14am
Quoting Mozzy
What makes you think that? I never thought it would make 100 today, most likely next week.
last time boj felt like it could "take the lid off" (apr 4th and 5th), .uj moved ~365 and ~210 pips (and that was two days in a row!). there are people targeting 100 who didn't quite make it last week... and we've only gone a little more than 100 pips since late yesterday afternoon and the "give em a little slack thing".

it doesn't look like .uj can get to 100 in one step (intuition), but it could do one step to 75 (a place it likes to stop), pullback some and then do another step to 100. it's only 175 pips. compared to recent past, it doesn't seem like much.

(also, there's an option at 100.10 but we probably can't get there by 1000 est... so maybe doesn't have impact)
  • #33,435
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:23am Apr 19, 2013 8:23am
175 pips by EOD?

Big call.

Unless something major happens I don't think there will be enough time at this current rate of climb.

Times like these I wish I were a true psychic!
  • #33,436
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:33am Apr 19, 2013 8:33am
Quoting Mozzy
175 pips by EOD? Big call. Unless something major happens I don't think there will be enough time at this current rate of climb. Times like these I wish I were a true psychic!
i just looked at that... .uj broke out of the channel from beg of asia bout 1.5 hrs ago - if it begins to respect that tl sys again right now, it could hit 100 as late as 1630 est... that's IF it continues to respect. of course, there's nothing says it has to bounce along the bottom (could just go vertical) --- i hang my hat on what the boj wants to do and now has additional permission to do. TA, FA and pa aside, i feel like these boj guys will do anything they think they can get away with.
  • #33,437
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:35am Apr 19, 2013 8:35am
Hello Everyone,

will I be brave or stupid, if I leave my UJ long position open at the weekend? It' well in positive territory (from 98), and I really don't know what to do...

Gread and fear...:-)
  • #33,438
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:37am Apr 19, 2013 8:37am
I personally would leave it if over 150 pips. jmo
  • #33,439
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:48am Apr 19, 2013 8:48am
Quoting uafx
Hello Everyone, will I be brave or stupid, if I leave my UJ long position open at the weekend? It' well in positive territory (from 98), and I really don't know what to do... Gread and fear...:-)
oh my no... too sensitive to neg news.
  • #33,440
  • Apr 19, 2013 8:50am Apr 19, 2013 8:50am
Quoting 1candlepower
oh my no... too sensitive to neg news.
matter fact, don't like look of drop below 99 ... thinkin maybe get out while ahead .
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