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  • #789,881
  • Edited 6:03pm Apr 18, 2013 5:40pm | Edited 6:03pm
Merlin Breakout Strategy:

Yesterday didn't yield a traceable result, although it gave me a short bias. However, the HI/LO defined the close day range of prices until New York session.

Tonight, 10PM-12AM GMT
HI - 1.30706
LO - 1.30458

Tonight I will apply a 20 pip buffer either side of the HI LO.
If price > 70.6 but < 90.6 look to SHORT but if > 45.8 look to long
If price < 45.8 but > 25.8 look to LONG but if < 25 look to short

Trigger only on or after 7am.
If new hi or low created at Asian session, then flat.

EDIT:
After further analysis, 3098 will be a key price in Tomorrow's session. This is the previous day's mid.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #789,882
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:06pm Apr 18, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting vlady1974
Merlin Breakout Strategy: Yesterday didn't yield a traceable result, although it gave me a short bias. However, the HI/LO defined the close day range of prices until New York session. Tonight, 10PM-12AM GMT HI - 1.30706 LO - 1.30458 Tonight I will apply a 20 pip buffer either side of the HI LO. If price > 70.6 but < 90.6 look to SHORT but if > 45.8 look to long If price < 45.8 but > 25.8 look to LONG but if < 25 look to short Trigger only on or after 7am. If new hi or low created at Asian session, then flat. EDIT: After further analysis, 3098 will...
I really should calculate the MID and project 39 pips either side. (19.5 x 2) where 19.5 is the original EU vibration.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #789,883
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:16pm Apr 18, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting Likerty
Every session has a new story to tell - you can often spot PA ignoring HH's or LL's of the previous session, and same thing goes with all of them: Tokyo, London or NewYork.. If you're willing to dig in to this matter deeper - you can check my articles about: different trading sessions and [url="http://www.dukascopy.com/fxcomm/fx-article-contest/?Session-Breakout-Trading-Method&action=read&id=1197"]session breakout trading method...
Thanks Likerty,

I will read your article during weekend.

Take care
  • #789,884
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:29pm Apr 18, 2013 6:29pm
for those who are in eastern central time zone (USA) did you realize that 1H, 4H, D, W, all are a spinning pin bar?? smth is gonna happen... btw only monthly is green.
As Above, So Below
  • #789,885
  • Apr 18, 2013 6:45pm Apr 18, 2013 6:45pm
Friday bloody Friday aussie is having another go at support 0290

edit I think decent break or bounce will catch a lot out, even though it is Friday
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #789,886
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:03pm Apr 18, 2013 7:03pm
1.3100 A magnet and bias is lower

 

  1. Erratic European climb undone by soft Wall Street & lack of Italian Govt
  2. Inside day at lower end of Wed's range - opens little changed
  3. Comes towards end of second week 1.3000/1.3200
  4. Steady stream of soft EZ data weighs - Japanese inflow a phantom
  5. NY 1.3026/1.3096 range sup/res - bias lower
  6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/cud57t

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #789,887
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:06pm Apr 18, 2013 7:06pm
More Pipnography for Pip Pervs
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Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #789,888
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:26pm Apr 18, 2013 7:26pm
USD Techs holding below 50 Day MA

 

  1. Wednesday saw sharp reversal ahead of the 50% fib - bears front running
  2. Further bearish evidence - price subsequently seen holding below 50 DMA
  3. Next support level to be tested is the 200 day MA at 1.293
  4. Holding below 1.293 would open up new lows below April 4's low
  5. Likely new lows are coming - get short with stop at 1.316
  6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/pad57t
  7. See (More) for more

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #789,889
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:26pm Apr 18, 2013 7:26pm
short .. short... short
Skype: tlcodelearncircle
  • #789,890
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:36pm Apr 18, 2013 7:36pm
While its dead and we are all sitting around holding our pip pip...
EUR/USD – Rallies Above 1.30
http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130418/...es-above-1-30/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #789,891
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:55pm Apr 18, 2013 7:55pm
Could be true?
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Skype: tlcodelearncircle
  • #789,892
  • Apr 18, 2013 7:58pm Apr 18, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Friday bloody Friday aussie is having another go at support 0290 edit I think decent break or bounce will catch a lot out, even though it is Friday
I have done 4hr and zoomed in on 15 mins aussie charts

4hr shows importance of 0290 it below phyc 0300 aussie been pounded all week, 50sma rolling over and a cluster of fibs, she is attacking this weeks lows, and for me below todays open, looking to the left, can see this levels been resist then support and now big battle is on to decide which for this phase, all of these things together I like

now for market sentiment, buyers have been bashed all week, I think they appreciate the battle for this levels, more than bears, and trying to defend, problem is if it goes, they may just decide to cover older longs which could also exacibate the move.

15min tuesdays thursdays and todays opens are compressing, again the 50 and also 200 sma are cruising down at a nice angle,

summary, normally a long at support is the play, but today I think there is enough info showing it is safer to sit this one out and wait for battle winner, it is cheaper actually free, other charts show other things, to messy on one chart

For me fukit "go Bears"

edit shit her doing lottle plop as typing bbl trade safe
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie 4hr 19 4 2013.png Size: 154 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie 15min 19 4 2013.png Size: 133 KB
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #789,893
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:04pm Apr 18, 2013 8:04pm
EUR Tech Trader
For now we have our offer at the 50% fib of the decline from the Feb high - at 1.323. We will lower our offer should there be further bearish evidence - a close below the 200 day MA would provide that evidence.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #789,894
  • Apr 18, 2013 8:23pm Apr 18, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting tashkent
for those who are in eastern central time zone (USA) did you realize that 1H, 4H, D, W, all are a spinning pin bar?? smth is gonna happen... btw only monthly is green.
inside a red quarter and still open.. we have 12 days to close the month..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #789,895
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:19pm Apr 18, 2013 9:19pm
typical friday and typical euro rally. no logic behind yesterday's move and no logic behind today's either. eur/yen in make or break territory again. I still think it will open up 127 at some point. I am optimistic
  • #789,896
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:34pm Apr 18, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting forex4india1
typical friday and typical euro rally. no logic behind yesterday's move and no logic behind today's either. eur/yen in make or break territory again. I still think it will open up 127 at some point. I am optimistic
japanese opened their mouths again. aud, euro, gbp everything will go up now
  • #789,897
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:35pm Apr 18, 2013 9:35pm
if we are going to see a major bear change in direction. 2975 is a um that larger algos will be more in-tune with at month and quarter endings. the mid at 2876.7 the lm at 2777/78.. a decisive cross with closes will turn bigger traders on. atm we are above 2975...and the smaller 2999 um.
on the 1.6038/1.1876 chart we were rejected at 1.3710... the LM is at 1.37114, 1.4 pips from the high.. that rejection ended the month in a bearish engulfing candle.. 305x ish... wiping out the whole years gains. then we ended in a red quarter, despite japan intervention. a red quarter, that closed below the ypp.

on the all time mofu we are above..

3226 would have made things easier. but 3197 was there to mess things up. personally despite the rest.. i am targeting a LL with 3710 ish keeping us in check.. 1.17776 seems about right.. i reserve the right to tweak.. its just a "what if target" atm.. but at 3710 i had a LL in mind..

in late 2008 a predictive signaled eu .858. i have a close match one here also near .. .8651
all bs targets above, but with pa there to support them..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #789,898
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:42pm Apr 18, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting forex4india1
japanese opened their mouths again. aud, euro, gbp everything will go up now
hmm, lets play the "what if it dont game". like what if its already baked in? and despite all this, we drop.. you say they opened their mouth.. can you tell me since they announced easing.. when did they give a clue that had changed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #789,899
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:43pm Apr 18, 2013 9:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
hmm, lets play the "what if it dont game". like what if its already baked in? and despite all this we drop.. you say they opened their mouth.. can you tell me since they announced easing.. when did they give a clue that had changed.

gator I thought G20 would pressurize them for their Yen weakening. but seems like nobody gives a shit. so we have everything higher. welcome to risk on.
  • #789,900
  • Apr 18, 2013 9:49pm Apr 18, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting forex4india1
typical friday and typical euro rally. no logic behind yesterday's move and no logic behind today's either. eur/yen in make or break territory again. I still think it will open up 127 at some point. I am optimistic
This is just merely moving within Asia's range of testing support or resistance.

Unless a new hi or new lo is made, then probably price will trend out from it to another point. Often even if S or R is breached, it ain't closed under or upper but only false break or spikes, as Asia lack that volatility unless due to incoming fundamental.

So far i see EU and GU still within a possible range.

1.5272-82 - > Potential S1 of resistance turns support of yesterday's Europe Hi.
1.3045 - > Potential S1 which was Asia's HI of yesterday turns support zone.

1.5310/15-> Current R from ytd's supply zone.
1.3090-1.3100 -> resistance area from yesterday.

Breakout happens after former R is breached or Current lowest of 1.5214 and 1.3000

Unless ur talking about yen pairs, as they tend to be volatile right from Asia's hours.
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