Sonic R. System

great pips, just watchout your drawdown , that unrealistic for me .

UChf Long Trade:

Entered long as a Scout on the basis of PVSRA on M1 as Asian session MMs continued to work the price lower and then began to show relatively higher activity around 10 pips above the whole number, indicating the MMs remain bulls seeking lower prices to reload longs. This is likely not the only long I might add as a Scout down here since MMs will typically run price below the whole number for adding longs. That more likely will be the work of the MMs later, in the LS. However, I decided to make this entry in case that does not happen. No SL, no TP at this time.

May be retrace from Fibo 38.2 ?

GU Short Trade:

Entered short, a Scout based on M1 PVSRA as Asian session MMs worked the price above the half number and then began relatively higher trading, indicating the MMs are bears seeking higher numbers to add shorts. This could be pushed even higher by MMs later, in the LS. No SL, no TP at this time.

An Excellent Lesson in PVSRA: EU, MMs Bulls or Bears?

DmitryFX, if you are suggesting maybe the price will continue to rise from the FR 38.2% level, then you are suggesting the MMs are bulls. Now, switch gears from trying to get your clues from larger TF charts to lower TF charts, namely look at M1 and analyze the price and volume relative to S&R. In this case you will see the MMs worked to drive prices above the half number (where MMs like to short) and here they suddenly increased their trading! This confirms the MMs are bears adding shorts, not bulls adding longs.....unless you believe professional traders push prices up on themselves for the glorious opportunity to buy at higher prices!

Now please keep in mind this Asian session activity does not mean the bear MMs won't push prices even higher. They frequently do, and this may go higher for the same reason again in the LS. However, now we know the MMs are bears and will eventually initiate their MARK DOWN run to make profits, which means the price is destined to go lower than it is now, enough lower such that these MMs will be making profits on these shorts!

Do you see the effectiveness of the Sonic R. System using PVSRA? You are admittedly guessing about what is going on, and about what might happen later. I don't have to guess, I know what is going on right now, and the obvious conclusion sometime later. PVSRA is telling me!

(Required Disclaimer: but, I could be wrong. Have been before )

Edit: Now look at the second M1 a bit later. You can see that the bear MMs, having driven the price above the half number, and after increasing their trading there, have exhausted the liquidity up there and now their shorting is causing the price to fall back lower again. This is a perfect example of how bear MMs push up price, shorting as they go, and continue to short away all the liquidity, and continue to short the price back down. This is a very neat trick, as it shows how the MMs go on a selling spree without ever dropping the price lower than it was when they started selling! This is why I call them MMs,.....Market Manipulators of price! In a so-called "free market" we'd expect selling like this to drive price lower, but as you can see, the MMs sell it up, sell it across as they exhaust liquidity, and then sell it back down to where they started! Now the bear MMs have bigger short positions and they never decreased the price on themselves as they built it! BTW, any single trade in all that manipulation could be for tens of millions of dollars of currency, do don't think what just happened cannot be a big deal.

-tah

It's getting clear but still have some doubts about this stuff. How to identify the right side of MM's activity if activity presented on both sides?
Yesterday MM's pushed price down below 1.3050-1.3000 and now they have activity below RN 1.3050.
What if they are buying now?

Bear MMs Drive Prices Up to Add Shorts,....Bullish Looking PA to Sucker in Longs!

Sure there is activity before (below) the round number, but can you not see that the result is the constant pushing up of price, and during which the truely higher activities consistently appear for the candles reaching into the higher prices of each of the itsy bitsy cycles as the price goes higher? They do! And that fact of rising price with the tendency for higher trading levels to appear for candles involving the higher parts of the cycles is the early confirmation that it is a bear drive up you are watching and that you are seeing the repeated shorting by the bear MMs at good prices, as they push the price higher.

However, we are not going to waste our money continuously adding shorts as frequently as the bear MMs do. We are going to wait for the bear MMs to drive up the price to their preferred "conclusion" areas (typically above whole/half numbers, although not always) and look for our short entry opportunity there.

-tah

Maby this will help.

A PVSRA Lesson by JRissa: EU, MMs Bulls or Bears?

Excellent work, JRissa. You are really getting this. Thank you!

-tah

Btw.
Today I'm going to experiment this;
When we see this price manipulation; MM's pushing price higher to load more shorts, or other way round, we can trade to that direction too.

Basically I'm looking for MM's to push price over to next full number and I am trading long to there with tight SL below recent high volume spikes on low prices. These spikes, to me, mean that MM's don't want the price to drop below this to get price going up and give them more oppoturnities to short.

Just an experiment, but theres huge profit ratio on this, cause SL can be set so so tight. Maby too tight in this case, but only losing 8pips if wrong. Getting 55pips profit if right.


Edit:
In fact this kind of setup goes well with original Sonic R setup

Thank you guys. I hope I got it! Need more practice!

Meanwhile i want to discuss another one really very useful stuff about pure price action, volumes and MM's manipulations.

It's so called LIQUIDITY GAP (MOMENTUM AWAY)
I was noted about it by one pros one year ago, but i had no idea how to trade it. Now things getting much more clear. I have found very good explation of this stuff here.

This article will answer any questions you might have about what is the definition of liquidity gap, and how (and why) you expect price reaction in relation to it.

There is no easy way to answer this question as it requires a study of the market microstructure which explains how the exchange occurs in financial markets and the order flow process, but we’ll try to make it short and simple.

First of all, here are some the terms that have the same meaning or definition to avoid any confusion:

Base = Cluster = Equilibrium = Indecision = Balance = Stable = Normal = Efficient = Range = Consolidation = Flag.
Decision = Imbalance = Unstable = Abnormal = Inefficient = Momentum = Impulse = Liquidity Gap/Spike = Engulf = Pole.
Corrective Moves = Rebalancing.

Second, refer to the Order Flow article before reading this article, and the Key Levels & PA after reading this article.

Now back to basics; we know that in a normal liquid market there is a seller for every buyer and vice versa, this is considered a stable state of the market as it creates a balance between supply and demand and maintains a stable price value, and as the imbalance occurs in supply and demand the value of price increases or decreases. The balance state on a chart is represented by a consolidation in price, and the imbalance is presented by a high volume/momentum candle (also known as a sign of Pro money / Institution’s buying or selling). If we zoom into the consolidation (LTF) we’ll find other states of balance and imbalance.

The order flow article has explained the execution of orders, and to recap; to have your orders executed at current price you need someone on the opposite side with the same number of orders otherwise price will move too much from your entry until it finds an opposite stack of orders. Retail traders have a big advantage over Pro money since their orders get executed at current price, a benefit that Pro money doesn’t have due to their mass orders which gets executed at different prices as the price moves away from their initial entry. Hence they tend to accumulate/distribute their orders through positioning, re-entering on retracements or even creating them as well as fakeouts.

By now you should understand why the sign of pro money buying/selling is presented by high momentum candles aka liquidity gaps, but if you don't then continue reading.

A liquidity gap means low liquidity! How?! You know that in a liquid market for every buyer there is a seller and vice versa, but you also know that online brokers don't guarantee a non-slippage or a no requote during the time of volatile news due to low liquidity, and you can clearly see it on charts during such news when a long spike or a high momentum candle is created in seconds. A broker wouldn’t take the risk if you’re buying because they can't find you a seller unless they are willing to take the risk by selling to you as a dealer.

So how could we say it’s a low liquidity when price moves in a high volume?! Again, we know that high volume candles are signs of big money, institutions etc. entering the market or in control of the market pushing price in their direction...that is true. However, the liquidity in this case is being injected from one side only (the dominant side) hence the name liquidity gap and the equation “Volatility = High Volume + Low Liquidity”.

Now bear with me...The "normal or balanced state" of the market is to have a seller for every buyer thus maintaining an efficient change in price value, so when the market moves up or down either in consolidation or in a ladder steps behavior then it’s a “normal balanced state”, but if it moves up or down with a high volatility and momentum then its "abnormal or imbalanced state" and it’s a sign of domination from one side.

So what is the conclusion?! The dominant side (pro money) would want to collect their profits as soon as price reaches their targets which results in market returning to its previous state (rebalancing) on a wider scale and filling up the liquidity gaps.

The definition part of the question has been answered; now let’s answer the other part related to price reaction.

Look below at the Gold daily chart and see the price behavior when it broke through a decision area/major key level of significance, creating a high momentum candle as a sign of one side in control, bulls or bears, and how they wanted to push it higher or lower. Of course price will return to fill the LQ gaps, but later in the future, not at the present time of the incident, especially not when it starts creating a new DP/Supply/Demand as pro money position their entries. On the other hand you can notice larger high momentum candles (LQ gaps) getting filled the same day or next day, but this happens when price fails to break through a major DP or key level and this is when pro money are accumulating/distributing (bottom and top side of the chart).

The market is in a constant state/phase shifting from normal to abnormal, balanced to imbalanced and back again, just the same as in ranging to trending and back again (refer to Wyckoff Market Theory), and every range contains the two phases if you zoom in, the same applies to the bottom consolidated area in the chart.

Supply & Demand trading style is in harmony with order flow and it works according to this stuff.

One Upmanship On the MMs?

JRissa, if I understand you correctly you intend to go long once price breaks up thru the top of the most recent "conclusion" area, targeting above the next higher whole number as a logical next "conclusion" area the bear MMs might use, and placing a SL neatly below the most recent "conclusion" area?

That is really a cool idea, and a very intelligent experiment! I am excited to watch along with your trade on this, because if it is not a complete bust, and if additonal such experimental trade yield consistent favorable results, there is no telling where it could all lead to. But, it sort of looks like a plan to trade a Classic long setup, one confirmed by bear MMs! (Good grief, what is the world coming to?)

-tah

And in fact it should be Classic Sonic R setup, if you look at my edited post right now. So basically this is trading the lower probability Sonic R setup with acnowledge where MM's like to build more shorts/longs to choose TP point.

LOL!!!! Guys don't you tnink your "experiment" looks like classical SonicR setup?

Yup, as I already said just before you

Only difference here is that we know that MM's should be bears still, so we should have pretty good understanding by now how far this setup will run: To next point where MM's like to add more shorts and not much further to keep bear market going

GM all......TAH do you ever sleep? - you seem to be posting 24 hours a day

Now we are into Frankies Hour and as Sonic has said, its not a reliable time to trade as the Big Europeans followed by the Big Londoners push price around with frequent fakeouts before starting their main daily move - OK for hit and run trades off the 1 min chart, but not IMO for Sonic trades.

Here's my 5m chart updated frrom my last post ~20:00 - the US close.

The main reason for posting is to show the PA around S&R levels - all updated by that indicator I posted.....and if you get a confluence with a fib &/or a pivot, even better......so to work....

JRissa,

Do we know how far the next setup will run? Really? Keep in mind that bear MMs prefer to load shorts above whole/half numbers (in that order). They already claimed ground above the half number. Technically speaking, there is still a lot of ground above the half number before ever reaching the next whole number, meaning though the bear MMs might push price higher, any higher price would still be above the half number, meaning they might not target above the next higher whole number. They might not even make it to, or much above the 3/4 number.

Your SL below the current consolidation block might be less than 30 pips away from EP, but still more than twice the possible next consoldation top around the 3/4 level! If you are a "risk to reward" fanatic (I ain't), than that might cause some consternation.

Just a thought.

I guess this is all prompted by another thought in the back of my mind. I've quested to find a difference between those good looking Sonic R. setups that run good and those that don't. And after three years (has it been that long?) I'm realizing whether the MMs are bulls or bears behind the setup is the difference! So, if the MMs are bears, avoid a long setup! That is the premise, even knowing that bear MMs can continue to push up prices, many times enough to make a long setup one that could have been traded for profit. You might miss those, but you miss the head fakes too.

Oh well, let's see what happens.

-tah

Good morning.

No, I'm not "risk to reward" fanatic and have been scaling in to positions long time now with huge drawdowns, before price has changed direction and eventually changed to profit side. Remeber GU 4h inverted H/S? Scaling in few times at range and taking profits on top made many thousands of pips in few days with absolutely terrible R/R ratio, if we would have been wrong...


Now I'm just experimenting how to minimize risk and take profit both ways. For now this experiment is running on profit and as I stated earlier; R/R ratio is pretty good (if one is conserned about it). This also makes it easy to build short position by averaging, cause I'm already locked on profit when I take positions against myself I'm using Alpari UK as broker, so I can hedge.