EURUSD

hey @vlady1974 you gave me good insight into eu earlier, do you still have that view? im thinking of trying to exit at +1 even and then reenter when the mkt is actually moving

Mr Hammer is still chipping away at 5235 its being a bitch but it is a fence, all lower tf have close below waiting for a 4hr close below,

also have todays open 5238, so she getting really compressed either continuation of plop or bounce tic toc tic toc

Thanks mate.

Just reading Fibstalker's post - alot of similar views to mine. For example the retrace to 40-60 area for a DOWN move.
There's a thing I learned from Cloggie who used to post. It wasn't new, I'd seen it before... but he made me think about it - because he did it live:

He would say: If x then y otherwise z.

This became the approach to every trade plan... and it presupposes one thing: you don't know the direction, ever. But you are able to react depending on what happens.
And in that, you should be able to gain the "secret".

In Fibstalker's post, he has 2 scenarios. For me, I'm still bullish UNLESS 3000 is broken and then I'll be flat BUT if 294X is breached, I change bias to BEAR and will short.

At present, EJ is in sync with EU and the moves are double if not more of the same move in EU.... so I will use it as a barometer and even trade it first. EJ is headed south at present and it has the strong possibility of dragging EU with it. Having said that, you apply the IF-THEN rule.

If prices go to 40-60 I am flat until price doesn't exceed 66 but breaks 42 and I will short at 39 looking for 100 pips to 2939, or minimum 20 pip moves, moving my first SL to break even.
If above is invalidated by higher than 66 and any retrace does not go below 42, then buy on dips but expect possible sideways movement.


This statement actually has some of my views after today. It's still an opinion and an observation on today. It has my personality in it and how I like to manage my comfort levels. I don't specify my stop loss (I don't need to for myself, but notice that I did make a statement about 20 pip moves which I do use to manage my risk.

This was what I was trying to explain to the other dude who asked the question. I'd rather rant and give you an insight, rather than be cryptic and tell you nothing. Hope this helps.

BTW. Flat with EU until 7am GMT. And I don't trade EU on Mondays.

I am posting this because 3 out of 3 times the Cycle Gurus have been DEAD on. Down to the days. For what it is worth:

As markets near a change in trend they generally become more volatile. As an example, when EUR/USD peaked just above 1.6000, the first peak was 1.6020 in April 2008 and it took until July and a second test and subsequent fresh high at 1.6040. In the interim it chopped back down to 1.5285, up to 1.5850 and back down to 1.5350 before that last and final test. If indeed EUR/USD is making cycle peak here it should be choppy and if it's not then it's less likely to be a significant high. As cycle analysis is the purview of the cycle gurus we''ll quote their last published EUR/USD view "The euro is then headed higher into the week of April 8 or the following week and our target for this upmove will become the 1.3225 area".

The cycle gurus noted back then "Provided this target area holds the downtrend will resume into early May and this overall weakness could last up to several months longer. Our further objective for the downtrend is the 1.2425 area." So far we've held the 1.3200 level and providing we continue to do so, the cycle gurus' are bearish. They're not the only ones, a large New York investment bank/commercial bank highlights the risk that the DAX and EUR Stoxx 50 are sitting on critical support and if it cedes, they're talking about a further 10% drop from current levels, that would certainly put EUR/USD under pressure.

Our stuff tells us that if 1.3200 holds it would be a very typical weak counter-trend rally that bounced off -2.0 16-wk M/A Bollingers (average ccy cycle 15 1/2 weeks) and has tested the average itself this week (1.3175) One of our Asia desk's good contacts noted last night that he had an eerie sense that the EUR/USD rally was in jeopardy after it struggled to gain 10 pips whilst EUR/JPY managed a decent pop. He noted corporate sellers circa 1.3200 and what he described as a "stealth" offer which he suspected were "macro types". Well the cycle gurus have many followers in Asia and the Middle East, particularly amongst reserve managers so that stealth offer would be consistent with the cycle gurus' view. Oversold conditions start to build on the ultra-short term models between 1.2925/1.3010; short term models 1.2885/1.3020; intermediate models 1.2675/1.2955; and medium term models 1.2690/1.2755. This tells us that we're unlikely to see a collapse in EUR/USD, but more of a zigzag chop lower, buyers appearing when technicals are too stretched with an eye to reload on bounces.

There's an old adage about US equity marts "Sell in May and go away" referring to the reasonably frequent investor apathy in the summer months. US equity marts rallies hard yesterday only to give most if not all of it back today. That followed Monday's blood-letting exacerbated by the bombings in Boston, today it's been "mysterious packages & letters" sent to politicians one of which had traces of Ricin. Hardly conducive for risk on stocks. The gold collapse has unnerved many and after yesterday's bounce we saw weakness again today; oil markets are also in retreat as is copper. Tech stochs sold off on poor earnings reports by US companies, all in all a pretty toxic mix for risk takers - the only excuse, free central bank cash and no yield to be had in "safe" investments.

Traders have been getting reports of gold miners hedging future years production, something that's been unheard of in 7 or 8 years and there's whiff of that going on in energy markets. Toss in the rapid growth of gold and commodity ETFs backed by physical over recent years and every time the commodity complex drops, there's more supply coming to market. At the very least, longs should be looking for rallies to bail on; short sellers will be quicker to pull the trigger given the difficulty EUR/USD is having breaking 1.3200 and corporate hedgers should be looking to take out some insurance on EUR receivables, particularly with continued rumblings about Slovenia and loose talk that they (and perhaps other European sovereigns) may take a similar tack as Cyprus and dump some of their gold reserves to alleviate the bite in growth the austerity programs are levying. ECB's Weidmann today said that a rate cut is possible if conditions demand it. Rumours today of German growth disappointing and driving a fresh recession across the area all seem to be prompting those that need to protect the value of their investments to look for hedges - one of the reasons why EUR/CHF is re-testing the 200-DMA. As volatility is normally a sign of trend change (or resumption) the most likely direction in this environment is lower.

thanks for this, have to take some time to process it, i like the if then scenarios...no need to speculate

Let me expand on this some more, as I think the recent price action has been quite a good example of one type of phenomenon: TRENDING MARKETS.
Now remember that price can move UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS.

Since the end of March, the daily's have been mostly up and moving UPWARDS from 1.2746. If you were a terrible speculator and you constantly shorted and got stopped out 12 out of 20 trades, then you'd be 120 down if you had a 10 pip SL. Hopefully you would have more winnings in your 8 trades. But someone who analyses their strategy and realises they are shorting M1 and M5 timeframes, but taking triggers from 1H and 4H and DAILY price levels will have a hard time understanding what's wrong. I'll come back to this in a second.

The main point, is that when a market is trending UP or DOWN, you'll know pretty quickly whether your trade is in the money. When it's sideways, some traders especially newbies can't tell. There's no signal for ranging market - but you'll see lots of calls in the forums! It's hilarious. This is the best time to apply the IF - THEN analysis and try to cover all the obvious S/R levels on all timeframes so you don't have to constantly flick between them.

Now back to the timeframe that you trade. I made this realisation not so long ago. And it cost me about £250 in one trade. I was using a Weekly price translated to a Daily which was dictating how I was viewing the 4H, 1H, 15M and 5M. Utter nonsense. I trade daily. Not at end of day. So you have to translate a higher TF price level into something that will work on lower timeframes. This means giving it allowance. I don't believe too much on precision. It's impressive when someone calls a price to the pip... but you're not them, and you still have to trade it. So, I say 3002 is support. That to me is generally 3000 to 3007 - if I'm aiming for a target 100 pips away, I don't care for 7 pips, know what I mean?

Like today.... so what if the HI was 320X ..... who gives a shit... but did anyone catch it down!? How many were trying to call a bottom, when the TOP was already confirmed...... could their results be different with the IF-THEN approach? My trigger price for that was 84. 3212 and above were valid only if a retrace was above 3184... but the 5M was vibrating up and quickly below it. The way price printed on the lower timeframe alerted me that a 15M bar was going to be a PIN..... and then I adapted... the ELSE part of the IF-THEN kicked in.

So apologies for the long rant. We are due for some trends south - my opinion. But if I'm wrong, it will probably go sideways after some profit taking.
Right. Good night. Green pips tomorrow.

Thanks you, truly appreciate these analysis/news type posts you put up.

Many thanks for posting this. It's very interesting reading and certainly strikes the overall tone my view has taken the second half of yesterday. Where do you get this from? I googled Cycle Gurus but didn't get a very intelligent or relevant list.

Many thanks

Merlin Breakout Strategy:
10PM TO 12AM
HI = 1.30391 (not 3040!)
LO = 1.30278

So pretty much 30 to 40
At 7AM...
If price > 40 but less than 66 AND the Asian High < 66, then flat but look for shorts
If price < 30 but more than 3002 AND the Asian Low is between 30 and 02 then flat, but look for longs to 84.

(BTW... for the programmers: Silly question, but how do you know when a daily high or low has occurred?)
eg. If EOD <> true, then if Current Price < Max Price, then Max Price = HI
I'm trying to work out a syntax for this weird problem posted by Merlin regarding his "strategy". Any takers, PM me. Thanks

despite the hype. the uj is in a hard spot to top..

whats the win loss ratio, using it?

It's brand spanking new... 4 trades. 3 Wins, 1 Loss... Won't forget the loss.
The flaw is, I can't identify, within the current rules, a whiplash.

EJ H1

long opp here i reckon for 25 pips

I've loosely based it on this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=405

i have seen it in the past. i wanted to talk to someone with success

Thank you brother. I really appreciate it. I post more news on the other FF Eur forums. EurAnalysis and Trading EURUSD Only.

BTW, the original should be interpreted as a joke post.
I came up with the idea of a breakout purely on the time difference: 5PM EST, is 10PM GMT... giving a 2 hour window until a new day bar prints. I then switch to 60 min.... By the time it's Asian ad I'm sleeping. I wake up by 7am GMT and reassess the 2 hour range against Asian "Day" and try to catch the trend at London Open. Cumbersome, but 3 wins had promise. Don't know if it would work in a sideways trend.

@vlady1974 at what point do you think im toast?

i have set my tp to +2

You are welcome too.

It is very interesting. I was very skeptical of the Cycle Gurus when I first saw a news release from them. You know the saying... dont believe anything you hear and only 1/2 of what you see...

But sh*t they called 3 times in a row. Down to days. They called the top near 1.37xx and then saying it would sell off and then about a month ago saying E would rally (we just experienced that) and then said it would taper off end of April into May.

I will have to admit there are those with deeper pockets, faster processors, better market connections, and have more way intelligence more than me (um that would be most everyone).

When someone proves themselves over time I have to respect that regardless if I agree or not.

I get these updates from OANDA. They offer 2 news services. Every so often they will publish something from these guys. They are more algo based in their analysis and hey who runs the markets these days?

The perfect one is Ms Market so that is why I prefaced my post with "for what it is worth"

And more Pipnography for Pip Pervs


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1366244225