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  • #67,321
  • Apr 16, 2013 6:26am Apr 16, 2013 6:26am
JK on FX video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,322
  • Apr 16, 2013 6:40am Apr 16, 2013 6:40am
EUR/USD shoots above 1.3100

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD embraced the upside and moved above the 1.3100 handle, reaching as high as 1.3114 for now, as European investors go for lunch and the market prices in expectations ahead of the US data, including the CPI report, Housing Starts and Industrial Production. “We expect headline CPI to rise by +0.1%/mth, following the chunky +0.7% rise the month before. On an annual basis, favorable base effects lower the rate from 2.0% to 1.7%/yr (mkt 1.6%)”, wrote TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher, expecting also a relatively subdued Core CPI, at +0.2%/mth and 1.7%/yr (mkt 2.0%).

It’s been reported that the French government may be targeting an average GDP growth of 2% over 2015/2017.
According to Fxbriefs.com analyst Peter Jackson, Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser said he would be uncomfortable saying the Fed won’t engage in asset sales, but he would like to see it happen in an eventual exit from the current Fed stimulus program and the central bank should return to use Fed funds rate as the policy instrument. Also, he wishes to shrink the balance sheet as well as short the duration of our portfolio in all treasuries.

“The outlook here remains bearish, for a slide towards 1.2950 support area and initial intraday resistance is projected at 1.3109”, wrote Deltastock.com analyst Stoyan Mihaylov, pointing to minor intraday support at 1.3020.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,323
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:12am Apr 16, 2013 8:12am
Recent trade activity: Out of long @1.3131 for +1

Reason: PA moved below 5 SMA and RSI3 is under 5. Two strikes and old JD is out with a small win but a win none the less.

Will renter. Still have existing long @1.3196 and short @1.3099
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,324
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:16am Apr 16, 2013 8:16am

  1. Intra-day longs exit & EUR/USD slips below 1.3130 on IMF comments
  2. IMF says ECB policy should stay easy, scope available to cut rates further
  3. They also say the EUR appears 'modestly over-valued'
  4. Statments aid in protecting 1.3150 barrier, talk of 1.3200 barrier after that
  5. Protective offers remain ahead of both barriers still

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,325
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:32am Apr 16, 2013 8:32am
I got this link for Mario's speach

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...ate=16-04-2013
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,326
  • Apr 16, 2013 8:42am Apr 16, 2013 8:42am
EUR/USD capped by 100-day SMA

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The shared currency pushed higher and printed a fresh 7-week high versus the dollar after data showed US housing starts rose more than expected in March. EUR/USD stretched to a high of 1.3147 but found strong resistance at the 100-day SMA and pulled back.

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3125 area, where it records a 0.7% gain on Tuesday. If the euro manages to break above 1.3147, next resistances are seen at 1.3163 (Feb 28 high) and 1.3200 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports in case of dips could be found at 1.3080 (100-hour SMA) and 1.3030 (intraday lows/200-hour SMA).

Meanwhile, separated data showed US industrial production grew 0.4% in March, beating expectations of a 0.2% rise.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,327
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:06am Apr 16, 2013 9:06am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
EUR/USD shoots above 1.3100 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD embraced the upside and moved above the 1.3100 handle, reaching as high as 1.3114 for now, as European investors go for lunch and the market prices in expectations ahead of the US data, including the CPI report, Housing Starts and Industrial Production. “We expect headline CPI to rise by +0.1%/mth, following the chunky +0.7% rise the month before. On an annual basis, favorable base effects lower the rate from 2.0% to 1.7%/yr (mkt 1.6%)”, wrote TD Securities analyst...
...and EUR/AUD follows along
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,328
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:15am Apr 16, 2013 9:15am
Long @30

Reason: PA broke above 5 & 15 SMA

RS13 +50

30M is near supply zone which is somewhat negative.

Also 5 SMA is below 15 SMA not ideal but went with it anyway as my next long is @ 3196 well outside of the MM price saturation zone.

Also I have to leave for a client meeting and cant babysit Ms Market.

Should be in the Pips regardless. Still short @1.3099
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,329
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:41am Apr 16, 2013 9:41am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Long @30 Reason: PA broke above 5 & 15 SMA RS13 +50 30M is near supply zone which is somewhat negative. Also 5 SMA is below 15 SMA not ideal but went with it anyway as my next long is @ 3196 well outside of the MM price saturation zone. Also I have to leave for a client meeting and cant babysit Ms Market. Should be in the Pips regardless. Still short @1.3099
I am reconsidering whether or not I should short the E/U at 1.3150/60 as it is starting to look to me like smart money wants to retest the broken H/S neckline in the 1.33xx zone before taking it lower again. I had mentioned this possibility back in February when price originally broke and held below the neckline.
Of course time will tell, but I think that's where we are going.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,330
  • Apr 16, 2013 9:51am Apr 16, 2013 9:51am
Hey PT whats up. I see new toys in your charts
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #67,331
  • Apr 16, 2013 10:21am Apr 16, 2013 10:21am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey PT whats up. I see new toys in your charts
Hi Luis, what toy?
  • #67,332
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:37am Apr 16, 2013 11:37am
Typical set up should take it higher around 1.33.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #67,333
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:41am Apr 16, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Hey PT whats up. I see new toys in your charts
Yep... I like new toys

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,334
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:42am Apr 16, 2013 11:42am
Quoting rekon67
Typical set up should take it higher around 1.33. {image}
Agreed

Quoting PipTrapper
I am reconsidering whether or not I should short the E/U at 1.3150/60 as it is starting to look to me like smart money wants to retest the broken H/S neckline in the 1.33xx zone before taking it lower again. I had mentioned this possibility back in February when price originally broke and held below the neckline. Of course time will tell, but I think that's where we are going. {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,335
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:46am Apr 16, 2013 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
Agreed



PT, any projection about todays closing price (GMT) of Gold?
  • #67,336
  • Apr 16, 2013 2:59pm Apr 16, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting rekon67
PT, any projection about todays closing price (GMT) of Gold?
1375
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,337
  • Apr 16, 2013 5:30pm Apr 16, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I am reconsidering whether or not I should short the E/U at 1.3150/60 as it is starting to look to me like smart money wants to retest the broken H/S neckline in the 1.33xx zone before taking it lower again. I had mentioned this possibility back in February when price originally broke and held below the neckline. Of course time will tell, but I think that's where we are going. {image}
Sorry PT for the delay. That damn work gets in the way of trading sometimes. It is very possible 1.33xx can become reality especially if the big boys are leaning that way.

Thanks for the FYI
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,338
  • Apr 16, 2013 6:08pm Apr 16, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Sorry PT for the delay. That damn work gets in the way of trading sometimes. It is very possible 1.33xx can become reality especially if the big boys are leaning that way. Thanks for the FYI
Long-term see the possible formation of H & S
in the weeks chart..
target 1.17xx
  • #67,339
  • Apr 16, 2013 6:10pm Apr 16, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting chess king
wanted to make the target of 3200 .... starting from 2774 ... I'll wait to see the end of the month ...
My target was hit ..
  • #67,340
  • Apr 16, 2013 6:57pm Apr 16, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting chess king
Long-term see the possible formation of H & S in the weeks chart.. target 1.17xx
Well now that is some welcome bear news...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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