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  • #787,881
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:26pm Apr 15, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Read Taleb's "Black Swan" and you'll know why you're overthinking this event. We had ample warning of a down move...look at your charts, we had an indication of it since Thursday (200pip drop then too). We broke through the 23.6% fib on Friday already...so you can't really be surprised if it tests the 38.2% and 50%. Ask yourself this: Is a 50% retracement unusual? (clue: it's not) It just seems drastic because the up move was drastic too...a knee jerk up move...so it makes sense that the retracement will be a bit jerky too.
something to add: you're trying to come up with an explanation for price action, and that's fine. give me a few to think about it and i'll explain completely opposite outcomes with equal conviction (should've become an attorney )

but, i'm not trying to explain pa. i just believe i've witnessed a horrible crime for profit --- my purpose is not to EXPLAIN price movements. rather it is to explain possible MOTIVATION behind a serious crime.
  • #787,882
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:30pm Apr 15, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting 1candlepower
something to add: you're trying to come up with an explanation for price action, and that's fine. give me a few to think about it and i'll explain completely opposite outcomes with equal conviction (should've become an attorney ) but, i'm not trying to explain pa. i just believe i've witnessed a horrible crime for profit --- my purpose is not to EXPLAIN price movements. rather it is to explain possible MOTIVATION behind a serious crime.
Enough already. You believe what you do, and that's great. However, you have absolutely no physical proof of crime. "Timing" doesn't hold much. This is fear selling. Cyprus may liquidate their gold, yen is closing in half of it's drop, economic data is crap.

We can try and explain away the cause. True traders don't care about a cause. Just trade it. Many traders dream of these declines. Countrywide fecked a lot of mortgage holders and not much has happened, yet people still hold mortgages. Markets work in mysterious ways.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,883
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:34pm Apr 15, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting tomspin
no you simply do not understand that some folks decided to sell big time today and they have added to their position as news unfolded, others joined and you have panic all over the place(which helped those folks who decided to sell in the first place) market works like that, get use to it. case close dude, good luck
i'm not sure why a few of you here want to tie this to personal trading issues. this is about criminal motivation - i'm explaining what someone may have planned... with criminal intent. i don't think the reasoning is that mysterious. most traders on this forum would understand this thinking as leading a criminal to believe they could profit in the way i suggest.

funny, i saw a discussion similar to this when another member was criticizing the hedging rule... they were attacked, as if someone might listen and would "get it".
  • #787,884
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:36pm Apr 15, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting MaxDoom
if it is just a retrace of the 119.1x to 131.1x swing then I would look at 125.4x which has happened then 123.7x which has not, below that opens up a new game.
so it bounced off the 50% and now is headed to 38.2 and then possibly 123.7x (61.8)

so according to that it looks like a nice short from 38.2 level...i guess sl at 23.6 level would give a better rr than 1:1
  • #787,885
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:36pm Apr 15, 2013 5:36pm
okay. i can see that a few posters here have a serious problem with this viewpoint.

don't comment. and if you don't, i won't respond.
  • #787,886
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:37pm Apr 15, 2013 5:37pm
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm not sure why a few of you here want to tie this to personal trading issues. this is about criminal motivation - i'm explaining what someone may have planned... with criminal intent. i don't think the reasoning is that mysterious. most traders on this forum would understand this thinking as leading a criminal to believe they could profit in the way i suggest. funny, i saw a discussion similar to this when another member was criticizing the hedging rule... they were attacked, as if someone might listen and would "get it".
The thing is you don't show any proof. Where are your charts, inside knowledge, emails and all that stuff. You have yet made a case. I'm not attacking, but there is no need to keep on with it when nothing is proven. The argument is circular and going nowhere.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,887
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:39pm Apr 15, 2013 5:39pm
Quoting MaxDoom
case solved {image}
u ignore people who have a different opinion?
  • #787,888
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:44pm Apr 15, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting Pip Anon
The thing is you don't show any proof. Where are your charts, inside knowledge, emails and all that stuff. You have yet made a case. I'm not attacking, but there is no need to keep on with it when nothing is proven. The argument is circular and going nowhere.
since you decided to comment:

you have not addressed the main points of my argument, especially the improbability of timing. you have simply put words in my mouth and then attacked them vigorously.... which is pretty much what some others have done.
  • #787,889
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:47pm Apr 15, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting 1candlepower
i'm not sure why a few of you here want to tie this to personal trading issues.....
quit this business while you are young, you will never make it. It is never personal, market does not care if you lost your job, you lost your virginity or your cat decide it to go awol after 4 years on your lap. All major currencies where on monthly resistance pivots against the $ most finished retracements or major swings, look at OZ, GBP, Euro - Chinese just gave a nod to everybody.
PS
leave headging to hedge funds, there is no profitable place for hedge in the fx retail market you either sell or buy.
swing it!
  • #787,890
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:47pm Apr 15, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting 1candlepower
you have not addressed the main points of my argument, especially the improbability of timing. you have simply put words in my mouth and then attacked them vigorously.... which is pretty much what some others have done.
Improbability of timing, that's it? That is crime to you? I am not attacking YOU, just your argument. All I said was show the proof. A theory of improbability of timing by itself is a stretch. You offer no physical evidence. Theories don't convict criminals. Facts do.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,891
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:56pm Apr 15, 2013 5:56pm
Quoting 1candlepower
it's the probability of the timing. 1 in 17,280 of happening by pure chance. (ps: i started reading the Black Swan a few months, haven't had time to finish but i don't think it changes anything) i still think the criminal investigation of this should examine the possibility of manipulation for profit.
Chances of winning the lottery are worse...yet every week some people win

To quote Murphy's law: Everything that can happen will happen.
  • #787,892
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:58pm Apr 15, 2013 5:58pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Improbability of timing, that's it? That is crime to you? I am not attacking YOU, just your argument. All I said was show the proof. A theory of improbability of timing by itself is a stretch. You offer no physical evidence. Theories don't convict criminals. Facts do.
well, first there is no question that a crime was committed, and it has not been investigated yet. the thrust of my arguments (if you go back and read them) is that any investigation by authorities should consider the possibility that motivation for the crime was at least, in part, financial. i gave the details of some possible motivations.

any competent investigator will tell you that it helps a great deal to have your radar tuned to certain possibilities and investigate them. if you aren't looking carefully, you will fail to discover solid evidence that may bring responsible parties to justice.

to do good investigative work, you have to have a theory to start on (actually quite a few!).

this is so obvious to me that i am sure many others see what i see and some will aid authorities in their work.
  • #787,893
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:06pm Apr 15, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Chances of winning the lottery are worse...yet every week some people win To quote Murphy's law: Everything that can happen will happen.
yes, things will happen. in most cases, that is a certainty or perhaps a near certainty (that something will happen).

that someone will win is highly probable.

what is not at all certain is that YOU will win (damn!!)
  • #787,894
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:08pm Apr 15, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting 1candlepower
yes, things will happen. in most cases, that is a certainty or perhaps a near certainty (that something will happen). that someone will win is highly probable. what is not certain is that YOU will win (damn!!)
Well...unless you have PROOF that somebody did this for financial gain (and you haven't presented any), in this case nobody knew they'd "win" either.
  • #787,895
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:18pm Apr 15, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Well...unless you have PROOF that somebody did this for financial gain (and you haven't presented any), in this case nobody knew they'd "win" either.
wouldn't you need evidence? to get proof?

to find evidence, wouldn't you need a potential theory of the crime?

how would you find evidence if you didn't have a theory or conjecture? what judge would you give a search warrant? where would you find probable cause? what judge would listen to you unless you could present a theory of what might have happened?

proof rests on evidence (at least when things work right). you have to start with a theory or conjecture (what i've been posting) to find evidence.
  • #787,896
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:23pm Apr 15, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting 1candlepower
wouldn't you need evidence? to get proof? to find evidence, wouldn't you need a potential theory of the crime? how would you find evidence if you didn't have a theory or conjecture? how would you get a search warrant? where would you find probable cause? what judge would listen to you unless you could present a theory of what might have happened? proof rests on evidence (at least when things work right). you have to start with a theory or conjecture (that's what i've been posting) to find evidence.
But that's exactly the thing...you havent' presented any evidence. You merely presented a HYPOTHESIS...it's not even a theory in the scientific sense
  • #787,897
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:35pm Apr 15, 2013 6:35pm
just curious, does anyone know a good forum for trading S&P futures
  • #787,898
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:39pm Apr 15, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting 4exNinja
But that's exactly the thing...you havent' presented any evidence. You merely presented a HYPOTHESIS...it's not even a theory in the scientific sense
i'm not in law enforcement

my contention is that someone who IS in law enforcement should consider the scenario (or theory or conjecture) i outlined.

1st things 1st. they would need to find evidence. they would need help (and there are people far more able than i to do that once this is brought to their attention)

of course i don't have evidence. someone would need to look for it.
  • #787,899
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:45pm Apr 15, 2013 6:45pm
man it seem as gold bears both gbp & us are still hungry for some more beef patties attacking new 1hr lows now
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #787,900
  • Apr 15, 2013 6:47pm Apr 15, 2013 6:47pm
Quoting Petro1979
just curious, does anyone know a good forum for trading S&P futures
go check out Motley Fool's community at www.fool.com
im not even jokign about their link.... its real
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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