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  • #787,861
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:40pm Apr 15, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting MaxDoom
if it is just a retrace of the 119.1x to 131.1x swing then I would look at 125.4x which has happened then 123.7x which has not, below that opens up a new game.
looks like it is retracing from 125.4x how high would invalidate this (break of 126.19?)

might be nice to enter s after a retrace

thanks for the insight!
  • #787,862
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:40pm Apr 15, 2013 4:40pm
And for the monday humor, we learned that Yen is still seen as a safe heaven.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #787,863
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:42pm Apr 15, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting SugarPink
And for the monday humor, we learned that Yen is still seen as a safe heaven.
It's the typical "frog in hot water" scenario where people don't realise how bad things are until it's too late.
  • #787,864
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:43pm Apr 15, 2013 4:43pm
Good news is gold crazies got busted.. I could never stand those nut heads anyway... There is no such thing as long term investment. Only speculation.

Now, I would like to see the s&p go to shit.. The market never lies.
  • #787,865
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:43pm Apr 15, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting 4exNinja
That's what "they" want you to think!!! SEE, it's all true! They're manipulating you into liking oranges. Might be worth it watching Alex Jones' next show...not sure if he's going to blame the lizard people or the UN with their "black helicopters" trying to scare people so they all move into "hobbit homes".
Lol, government behaviorial modification. Hell corn is in everything. That must be good too. Whos alex jones?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,866
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:44pm Apr 15, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting attila
Good news is gold crazies got busted.. I could never stand those nut heads anyway... There is no such thing as long term investment. Only speculation. Now, I would like to see the s&p go to shit.. The market never lies.
I been saying that for a very long time and they look at me sideways. Now, the are 3 bottles deep in the Jameson Reserve.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,867
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:45pm Apr 15, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting attila
Good news is gold crazies got busted.. I could never stand those nut heads anyway... There is no such thing as long term investment. Only speculation. Now, I would like to see the s&p go to shit.. The market never lies.
The last few times gold pulled back by a ton stocks followed shortly afterwards...so yeah, I'm pretty sure you'll get your wish (and mine btw). This bubble needs to pop so people realise the stock market doesn't accurately represent the underlying economy.
  • #787,868
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:48pm Apr 15, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Lol, government behaviorial modification. Hell corn is in everything. That must be good too. Whos alex jones?
I'll post a disclaimer first: I am not responsible for you losing brain cells by listening to Alex...but it's really entertaining

LINK
  • #787,869
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:52pm Apr 15, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting 4exNinja
I'll post a disclaimer first: I am not responsible for you losing brain cells by listening to Alex...but it's really entertaining LINK
Ok lol Ill give it a gander

EDIT: OMG I seen this nutbag on Piers Morgan. Two nuts in one place.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #787,870
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:53pm Apr 15, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting 4exNinja
I'll post a disclaimer first: I am not responsible for you losing brain cells by listening to Alex...but it's really entertaining LINK
the Decepticons gonna rise again !
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #787,871
  • Edited 5:07pm Apr 15, 2013 4:56pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting Myo
what was your point again because i couldnt reconstruct it reading your few last posts
you could could condense it to this:

1. sunday night ~2200 est: aud, nzd and cad begin falling due to weak china data; they continue to fall thru noon today and start falling faster around time europe closes and by 1415 est, all 3 are hitting key levels (multiples of 25) and beginning to bounce (no more bad news normally --- IN THE EYES OF MANY TRADERS, A GOOD TIME TO FADE ... hey! i didn't make it that way, that's just the way it works)

2. these currencies just happen to be especially sensitive to risk events.

3. around 1440, news of explosions at the boston marathon start seeping into the market... everyone knows by 1500. sounds like terrorism, and will definitely affect the price of aud, nzd and cad pairs. all the faders that have just entered will feed the downward motion as stops are hit.

now, i don't know whether the idea was to push the price of risk assets lower so that someone who got in short risk assets sunday night would get a maximum payoff later the next day or if the it was just a local stop hunt... I DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.... i just see that convenience of having a super negative event follow a probable fading fest.

what makes me extremely suspicious is improbability of the timing. we're not talkin about bad weather here. we're not talking about some politician running their mouth, or about an earthquake. the chance of those things happening in a given 6 month period is A LOT GREATER THAN 1:17,280!!!! those things happen almost daily.

the probability of those bombs going off when they did by pure chance was very, very small. so, i am very suspicious.
  • #787,872
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:59pm Apr 15, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting 4exNinja
The last few times gold pulled back by a ton stocks followed shortly afterwards...so yeah, I'm pretty sure you'll get your wish (and mine btw). This bubble needs to pop so people realise the stock market doesn't accurately represent the underlying economy.
It's very simple to figure out who will be fucked next. Just watch the infomercials. In the late nineties and early 2000 there where the real estate wannabes, then the gold crazies.. Now I'll be watching who's next. People just don't understand there is NO way to just put your money somewhere and wake up 5 years later millionaire.. Fuck 'em all.. They will lose their money anyway, because they want it easy. There is no easy way, because the ONLY game in town is speculation... And it's fucking hard to be a speculator, as we all know it..
  • #787,873
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:02pm Apr 15, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Ok lol Ill give it a gander EDIT: OMG I seen this nutbag on Piers Morgan. Two nuts in one place.
Hahaha, yeah, it's one of the few times I watched Piers thinking to myself "he's not the biggest idiot on that show".
  • #787,874
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:05pm Apr 15, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting MaxDoom
my point is the 100 pip drop was because of the rumour of the fire. Now unless you are also saying that it is part of the conspiracy then you have to accept that a large movement is possible when news hits, and that does not mean somebody has made the news happen. end of conspiracy
i heard about the bombs at 1455 est. the fire came later, i don't think it had much impact by comparison. the big drop coincided with the bombs... i listened as it was happening.
  • #787,875
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:05pm Apr 15, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting attila
It's very simple to figure out who will be fucked next. Just watch the infomercials. In the late nineties and early 2000 there where the real estate wannabes, then the gold crazies.. Now I'll be watching who's next. People just don't understand there is NO way to just put your money somewhere and wake up 5 years later millionaire.. Fuck 'em all.. They will lose their money anyway, because they want it easy. There is no easy way, because the ONLY game in town is speculation... And it's fucking hard to be a speculator, as we all know it..
Yup. It's all about picking the right asset class and then jump ship once it starts to get overhyped (like gold...or real estate).

When I started working for a hotel consulting company after uni I did valuation and feasibility studies where I predicted that the market would decline 2-3yrs and then recover...or be ok for another 2-3yrs before dipping a bit. I was told off every single time with the "it always goes up" line...every single bloody time. Being fresh out of uni I of course asked why, but the only answer I got back was "because that's how the market works". I have a feeling my industry wasn't the only one that worked like that

Either way, my finger's hovering over the SPX500USD sell button
  • #787,876
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:06pm Apr 15, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting sidhujag
1359 is now support... I'm taking a long if it gets to 1362 with 1359 as SL looking to see atleast a hundred. edit... cancel
oh sidhujag, keep trying to go against a market thats on board the bear train for gold and aussie....
pls i dare you to...

gold is going to reach for 1280 whether you like it or not, and AUDUSD will eventually see a big move down to the bottom of the swing low range weekly of 0.95

i might sound out of my mind but people thought i was joking when i say gold's gona selloff since may 2012, even called it to reach 1450 back then....

lets watch for 1280 now since thats 50% fib line for gold.

i mean why wouldnt you go bearish on AUDUSD, after china showed big signs of a lowering growth?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #787,877
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:13pm Apr 15, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting 1candlepower
you could could condense it to this: 1. sunday night ~2200 est: aud, nzd and cad begin falling due to weak china data; they continue to fall thru noon today and start falling faster around time europe closes and by 1415 est, all 3 are hitting key levels (multiples of 25) and beginning to bounce (no more bad news normally --- IN THE EYES OF MANY TRADERS, A GOOD TIME TO FADE ... hey! i didn't make it that way, that's just the way it works) 2. these currencies just happen to be especially sensitive to risk events. 3. around 1440, news of explosions...
Read Taleb's "Black Swan" and you'll know why you're overthinking this event.

We had ample warning of a down move...look at your charts, we had an indication of it since Thursday (200pip drop then too). We broke through the 23.6% fib on Friday already...so you can't really be surprised if it tests the 38.2% and 50%.

Ask yourself this: Is a 50% retracement unusual? (clue: it's not)

It just seems drastic because the up move was drastic too...a knee jerk up move...so it makes sense that the retracement will be a bit jerky too.
  • #787,878
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:19pm Apr 15, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Read Taleb's "Black Swan" and you'll know why you're overthinking this event. We had ample warning of a down move...look at your charts, we had an indication of it since Thursday (200pip drop then too). We broke through the 23.6% fib on Friday already...so you can't really be surprised if it tests the 38.2% and 50%. Ask yourself this: Is a 50% retracement unusual? (clue: it's not) It just seems drastic because the up move was drastic too...a knee jerk up move...so it makes sense that the retracement will be a bit jerky too.
it's the probability of the timing. 1 in 17,280 of happening by pure chance. (ps: i started reading the Black Swan a few months, haven't had time to finish but i don't think it changes anything)

i still think the criminal investigation of this should examine the possibility of manipulation for profit.
  • #787,879
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:22pm Apr 15, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting 1candlepower
you could could condense it to this....
no you simply do not understand that some folks decided to sell big time today and they have added to their position as news unfolded, others joined and you have panic all over the place(which helped those folks who decided to sell in the first place)
market works like that, get use to it.
case close dude, good luck
swing it!
  • #787,880
  • Apr 15, 2013 5:25pm Apr 15, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting 1candlepower
it's the probability of the timing. 1 in 17,280 of happening by pure chance. (ps: i started reading the Black Swan a few months, haven't had time to finish but i don't think it changes anything) i still think the criminal investigation of this should examine the possibility of manipulation for profit.
case solved
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