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  • #23,981
  • Apr 14, 2013 3:21am Apr 14, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Jasus
Hey Joao (portuguese compatriot I'm guessing? ), I'm not very familiar with using COT report, can you explain how do you use the positions of commercials and large speculators to your analysis? Are the commercials the corporations who use futures to buy/sell commodities and hedgers? And does the smart money make a up a big part of the large speculators or not?
Hi Jasus! I am Brazilian so, even not Portuguese, we have many things in common, the language being one! :-)
About COT, I see the commercials as the "smart money". They are the corporations, big farms, etc., that uses the futures markets to hedge their business. Therefore, they have an army of analysts that study the market, forecasts it, to the best interest of the corporations that they work for.
Because they are hedges, their positions are always contrary to the price trend. If euro is going up, they are accumulation short positions and vice-versa.

Anyways, what we have to look for in a COT charts is how much their positions is extended in one direction or the other and, also, how much it is the difference from the speculators.
You can have a look on the charts to see what happens when the commercial and spec positions are too near or too far from each other. These are signs that a turn is coming to the market.
And that is basically how we have to look at COT charts, the extremes in divergences or convergences in the commercials and spec positions.

Larry Williams has a very good book on the subject titled "Trade stocks and commodities with the insiders. Secrets of the COT report". I recommend it.
But he has a more long term approach so he actually takes signals and entries/exits using the COT chart signals, and it means to take 3, 5 trades year.... :-)

But for day trading, as I said, can be interesting because we can put more weight on some trades than others. See how cable is refusing to fall and its 1hr chart is keeping a bullish trend.
On the other side, even COT is showing euro is bearish, it is also in a 1hr up trend... :-)
  • #23,982
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:19pm Apr 14, 2013 6:19pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
recently i saw tradeguider incorporated in their analysis the trigger numbers. wasn't that concept born on this forum by pres78, if i'm not mistaken?
  • #23,983
  • Apr 14, 2013 10:19pm Apr 14, 2013 10:19pm
GJ has my attention today.

Asia looks as if they did some selling. Interesting part is we do have this HV down move across most pairs (red bar), but on GJ notice how 2 bars later price pushes below. Makes me think that the HV bar was bearish.

We do have a previous bottom at 150.30 which makes us vulnerable to a up move. Would like to see price come up on low volume just before London open with signs of weakness, but if price hovers around 150.30 with low volume tests we may see a run up in London.
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  • #23,984
  • Apr 14, 2013 10:34pm Apr 14, 2013 10:34pm
Quoting SimpleDev
GJ has my attention today. Asia looks as if they did some selling. Interesting part is we do have this HV down move across most pairs (red bar), but on GJ notice how 2 bars later price pushes below. Makes me think that the HV bar was bearish. We do have a previous bottom at 150.30 which makes us vulnerable to a up move. Would like to see price come up on low volume just before London open with signs of weakness, but if price hovers around 150.30 with low volume tests we may see a run up in London.
I noticed EJ and EU with this feature. sold both of them. The HV volume was pretty good and not so over the top, so I felt pretty secure but for just some safety, I kept sl just above the small swing high in m5
  • #23,985
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:18pm Apr 14, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting SimpleDev
GJ has my attention today. Asia looks as if they did some selling. Interesting part is we do have this HV down move across most pairs (red bar), but on GJ notice how 2 bars later price pushes below. Makes me think that the HV bar was bearish. We do have a previous bottom at 150.30 which makes us vulnerable to a up move. Would like to see price come up on low volume just before London open with signs of weakness, but if price hovers around 150.30 with low volume tests we may see a run up in London. {image}
It can be due to JPY strength.
Here is a 1hr chart for the June JPY futures(CFD from Windsor Direct). The yellow lines are from the daily chart.
Notice that we have some SOS. If this market is turning up, we may see a retest of the 1.0122 level(creek? Ice?).
But for now, JPY is closing that hourly gap so, a pull back and we can see a pull back now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Eurusd fell from the March, 8th highs but is finding support on the top of Friday's accumulation area, around 1.3066.

Cheers!
  • #23,986
  • Apr 14, 2013 11:24pm Apr 14, 2013 11:24pm
This morning I was surfing the web for volume related content and come across the Ord Volume. Tim Ord, also a student of Wyckoff, make an indicator that measures volumes on swings and, comparing them, evaluates the strength or weakness of the move and also, get signals from it.
It is very similar to David Weis' "Weis Wave", a great concept and indicator.
The difference is that David Weis measures the swings based on price fixed steps(3 pips, $0.25 for ES, 10 cents for crude and stocks, etc.) and Tim Ord measures a complete swing, a swing being defined as a high or low. I have to say that the Weis Waves and Ord swings will coincides, depending on the time frame and configuration.

Anyways, I am attaching 2 files with Ord Volume text.
Seems to be a very useful concept(Weis Wave or Ord Volume) to use in evaluating the markets. By the way, I have the Weis Wave indicator for TradeStation and can say it is really valuable.

Cheers!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Stock_and_commodities_July_2006 - Ord Volume.pdf   616 KB | 1,276 downloads
File Type: pdf PriceVolume.pdf   330 KB | 1,113 downloads
  • #23,987
  • Apr 15, 2013 12:08am Apr 15, 2013 12:08am
eurusd is testing something...

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  • #23,988
  • Apr 15, 2013 12:32am Apr 15, 2013 12:32am
Quoting joaoborras
It can be due to JPY strength. Here is a 1hr chart for the June JPY futures(CFD from Windsor Direct). The yellow lines are from the daily chart. Notice that we have some SOS. If this market is turning up, we may see a retest of the 1.0122 level(creek? Ice?). But for now, JPY is closing that hourly gap so, a pull back and we can see a pull back now. {image} Eurusd fell from the March, 8th highs but is finding support on the top of Friday's accumulation area, around 1.3066. Cheers!

You are right about both the JPY and EU.. Never thought about looking at the JPY futures before, nice call. It looks like it has a rounded bottom for possible accumulation.

EU looks as if it is testing the some high volume that sent the market sideways from a few days ago.

I was trying to stay away from EU today, I didn't really know what to make of this bar on the 15m. HV comes in, closes in the middle and even the next bar closes up, I would think strength but then the bar is completely taken out.

oh.. I didn't high light them but half way in the 15m chart the 2 UTs made me bearish, a mixed day for sure.
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  • #23,989
  • Apr 15, 2013 12:47am Apr 15, 2013 12:47am
Quoting SimpleDev
You are right about both the JPY and EU.. Never thought about looking at the JPY futures before, nice call. It looks like it has a rounded bottom for possible accumulation. EU looks as if it is testing the some high volume that sent the market sideways from a few days ago. I was trying to stay away from EU today, I didn't really know what to make of this bar on the 15m. HV comes in, closes in the middle and even the next bar closes up, I would think strength but then the bar is completely taken out. oh.. I didn't high light them but half way in...
Yeap, eurusd is kind of trapped in this 1hr chart:

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In yours 15min, if there is really strength on that HV down bar, its low will be take so, it is kind of a trigger number to watch(also, its high).
But the UT are really suspicious.
Euro related news is very light today and US has the TIC data early in the NY session.
Tomorrow there is a bunch of inflation and sentiment related numbers in EUR and UK. Also, Draghi speaks tomorrow. Later then, US CPI numbers.
Today can be a range day in preparation for all this.
  • #23,990
  • Apr 15, 2013 1:26am Apr 15, 2013 1:26am
I think am posting too much today but i can't help it! :-)

Here is a 15min chart of euro. I'm posting it because I see a potential spring on it. Note that it is testing the low of the Asian range.

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  • #23,991
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:03am Apr 15, 2013 2:03am
Quoting joaoborras
I think am posting too much today but i can't help it! :-) Here is a 15min chart of euro. I'm posting it because I see a potential spring on it. Note that it is testing the low of the Asian range. {image}
No worries Jo, as long as you learn something from them. I think it helps you learn by posting, trying to justify what you are saying and explaining what is going through your mind to help you better understand what you are doing.

Went with my GJ short, weakness in Asia and doesn't seem to want to go up with a 2 bar and this UT, shorted UT.
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  • #23,992
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:27am Apr 15, 2013 2:27am
Quoting KinsaleForex
There's more info on my blog but I just wanted to post a couple of charts here as well. Highlighting my Swissy short for the week. Loosely ties in with my last post about previous zones. The first chart shows an old zone from the end of January that provided support throughout the week and stopped my short gaining any momentum. The second chart highlights the resistance at the 50% of the highlighted zone, these three points coincide with the resistance at the zone low on the PnF chart. Nice how it all tied together. I took the triple falling...

Thanks for this, it was helpful
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #23,993
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:29am Apr 15, 2013 2:29am
Quoting SimpleDev
No worries Jo, as long as you learn something from them. I think it helps you learn by posting, trying to justify what you are saying and explaining what is going through your mind to help you better understand what you are doing. Went with my GJ short, weakness in Asia and doesn't seem to want to go up with a 2 bar and this UT, shorted UT. {image}
yes, I also think that writing down my thinking helps me to fix it and be honest with myself, i.e., trading what I am seeing.

By the way, where was the UT which you shorted in GJ? The one in the middle of the retrace or on the left side?
  • #23,994
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:36am Apr 15, 2013 2:36am
Quoting joaoborras
yes, I also think that writing down my thinking helps me to fix it and be honest with myself, i.e., trading what I am seeing. By the way, where was the UT which you shorted in GJ? The one in the middle of the retrace or on the left side?
The hidden UT marked in green line, heh taken out with in 3 bars. Oh well..
  • #23,995
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:43am Apr 15, 2013 2:43am
Quoting SimpleDev
The hidden UT marked in green line, heh taken out with in 3 bars. Oh well..
That's cool. As HG told me, if you stick to your trading idea, a loss is not really a loss.
GJ is coming around a resistance area now. Maybe another short opportunity arises from here.


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  • #23,996
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:07am Apr 15, 2013 3:07am
Quoting joaoborras
That's cool. As HG told me, if you stick to your trading idea, a loss is not really a loss. GJ is coming around a resistance area now. Maybe another short opportunity arises from here. {image}
As always HG has good advise on how to look at situations differently.

I think you are right about being a range bound day.
  • #23,997
  • Apr 15, 2013 1:18pm Apr 15, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting s7c
recently i saw tradeguider incorporated in their analysis the trigger numbers. wasn't that concept born on this forum by pres78, if i'm not mistaken?
I believe TG have been talking about trigger numbers for years now. Just never in any real depth, at least in any printed media. HG was using them once upon a time and I think this is where pres picked it up from and subsequently me!
  • #23,998
  • Apr 15, 2013 1:29pm Apr 15, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
I believe TG have been talking about trigger numbers for years now. Just never in any real depth, at least in any printed media. HG was using them once upon a time and I think this is where pres picked it up from and subsequently me!
Yes I claim no ownership to the idea of trigger numbers. Liam is right in that I picked up the idea of using such triggers from this forum through posts from post Malc and HG. There was some debate about what should be used for the trigger numbers... do we use the H, L or C and in many cases it was a let's watch all 3 and let the market tell us which one they find important.

I took this concept a little further through the creation of what I liked to call VZA (volumn zone analysis) in where I applied a fib with three levels quickly marking a bars H, L and 50% and proceeded to trade a series of VSA inspired entry types into these levels.

At the end of the day it is just another way to mark an import supply / demand zone quickly and easily because where SM are active now they will be active again. Supply zones will produce selling or will be taken over by demand. This cycle repeats itself time and time again in the markets.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,999
  • Apr 15, 2013 4:04pm Apr 15, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting pres78
Yes I claim no ownership to the idea of trigger numbers. Liam is right in that I picked up the idea of using such triggers from this forum through posts from post Malc and HG. There was some debate about what should be used for the trigger numbers... do we use the H, L or C and in many cases it was a let's watch all 3 and let the market tell us which one they find important. I took this concept a little further through the creation of what I liked to call VZA (volumn zone analysis) in where I applied a fib with three levels quickly marking a bars...

Not that it matters, but this is correct from a historical perspective. Malc and I began talking about trigger numbers, a concept that Gavin rarely spoke about publicly. Gavin's shroud of secrecy led to many misconceptions and misunderstandings. At one point he would appear to put the trigger at the high. At another point it would be the low. And still another time, it would be at the midpoint.........

I am filled with an incredible sense of pride and humility that my ramblings about trigger numbers led to the creation of the concept of VZA. VZA has revolutionized Pres 78's trading and many others who have followed along his path. It was all him and I take no credit for that.

But it does prove one thing I have always said, when this thread is alive and active good things happen to those envolved......................
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #24,000
  • Apr 15, 2013 11:03pm Apr 15, 2013 11:03pm
I remember in one of his video's Gavin giving the credit to a guy named Ken Yei for the trigger numbers.

But something I learned purely from this thread:

High Volume zones (from Kinsale, but he gave credits to pres78)

Absorption volume (read about it for the 1st time in Tom's book but SimpleDev exactly showed how to read AV)

Hidden Volume (again credit goes to SD)

Hidden gaps (credits to HiddenGap)




lookin forward to learn somethin more here
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
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