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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #67,221
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:05pm Apr 14, 2013 6:05pm
EUR Techs

 

  1. Since April 10th, sideways trade around key resistance has been seen
  2. 38.2% fib / several daily highs in early March & 50 day MA all at 1.3100/30
  3. Look for possible pullback to retest 200 day MA (currently 1.2913)
  4. Holding above 1.3130 would be a bullish sign if it happens
  5. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/kyz37t

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,222
  • Apr 14, 2013 6:07pm Apr 14, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Some of us have fat fingers, and in that case it may be a bit dangerous to have on-click trading enabled on our charts. So, if you would rather not take the risk and therefore wish to disable the on-click trading feature, from the 'tools' menu, select 'options', go to the 'trade' tab, remove the check mark indicated in the screen shot below and click on the OK button. {image} ADD: Warning: The first time you use one-click trading, it will automatically enable it if it is disabled. However, if you disable it again, then any subsequent clicks on the...
Kind of risky when in the heat of FX battle.

Danger Will Robertson

http://r2---sn-jvhj5nu-p5qs.c.youtub...pltype=content
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,223
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:29pm Apr 14, 2013 7:29pm
EUR Consolidating around 1.3100 after s/t spike

  1. EUR/USD settling below Friday's 1.3110 close after touching 1.3150 earlier
  2. The move was to trigger stops above 1.3140 when the USD/JPY led the USD lower
  3. The key 100-day MA comes in at 1.3152 and should be stiff resistance today
  4. Hourly support has formed around 1.3075/80 with break targeting 1.3035/40
  5. EZ data/news not positive, but weak US data and Fed QE expectations support
  6. Expect range trading to continue in short-term

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,224
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:31pm Apr 14, 2013 7:31pm
EUR Tech Trader

We got long during NY trading on Friday and are targeting a test of the 50% fib. Price first needs to hold above key resistance at 1.3115 where sellers have been apparent. This area is where the 38.2% fib meets the 50 day MA and a series of daily highs from early March. A pullback will hopefully hold above 1.30 round number support - our stop is 30 pips below that.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,225
  • Apr 14, 2013 7:33pm Apr 14, 2013 7:33pm
Pipnography for pip pervs
Attached Image
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,226
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:00pm Apr 14, 2013 9:00pm
I am short @ 1.3092
And
Long @ 1.3131
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,227
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:05pm Apr 14, 2013 9:05pm
China data disappoints it looks like down we go
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,228
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:11pm Apr 14, 2013 9:11pm
Gold and Silver getting crushed
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,229
  • Apr 14, 2013 9:51pm Apr 14, 2013 9:51pm

  1. The EUR/USD is under pressure and is testing hourly support at 1.3075/80
  2. The USD and JPY are broadly bid in "risk-off" Asia after weaker Chin data
  3. A break below 1.3070 targets Friday's low at 1.3036



Riding this down short @92 is now +17

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,230
  • Apr 14, 2013 10:38pm Apr 14, 2013 10:38pm
Going to bed and setting a BE +2 on my short @98 already +21

Nothing like a free trade to sleep like a baby. Might awake to more than what I have now

 

  1. The EUR/USD is under pressure and is testing hourly support at 1.3075/80
  2. The USD and JPY are broadly bid in "risk-off" Asia after weaker Chin data
  3. A break below 1.3070 targets Friday's low at 1.3036

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #67,231
  • Apr 15, 2013 1:56am Apr 15, 2013 1:56am


Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,232
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:02am Apr 15, 2013 2:02am
Hi PT. Pls stay a while, I wanted to show you one impulse wave.

I really think it may be CBs are sending signal for Asia to buy Treasuries and therefore sell USD.

copy paste my post from EU thread:

I still think we have a new cycle developing here. You see, cycle 6.6.2010 - 24.7.2012 was quite regular one. Five ways up, chop zone breaking down, five ways down. It was first regular cycle since Lehman crash. Now new cycle doesnt have to behave the same like previous one, but there may be few common aspects. I believe righ now, we are are in mid of wave up. Take look at those relative strengths of waves in *.xls table (I have marked them in blue), they seem quite simmilar so far, so I think it may be simmilar type of wave. In chart, time period measured is marked by those rectangles down there.

Now I know this cycle aint healthy and is CB made, but that is not the point, it is cycle . Those red arrows point QE2 and BOJ starting to buy Treasuries. I ve been saying Asia is full of USD, but it is not only Asia, US is biggest importer in the world. USD are everywhere and I think CBs are sending quite a clear signal to the market. Buy long term bonds, sell USD. We are the ultimate buyer of bonds, taking the risk. Check 10-30y Treasuries, what they are dong.

So, if this lines up, we may be set for wave 5. Just a technical though, I dont expect wave 5 to be nor as straight, nor as long like previous one, since Europe is still here.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #67,233
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:27am Apr 15, 2013 2:27am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi PT. Pls stay a while, I wanted to show you one impulse wave. I really think it may be CBs are sending signal for Asia to buy Treasuries and therefore sell USD. copy paste my post from EU thread: I still think we have a new cycle developing here. You see, cycle 6.6.2010 - 24.7.2012 was quite regular one. Five ways up, chop zone breaking down, five ways down. It was first regular cycle since Lehman crash. Now new cycle doesnt have to behave the same like previous one, but there may be few common aspects. I believe righ now, we are are in mid of...
Hmmm Interesting.

What I don't understand is your statement that by buying long term treasuries, investors/traders have to sell USD.
So I have a question for you. If one buys US treasuries priced in USD, do they not have to buy USD to do that?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,234
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:34am Apr 15, 2013 2:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
So I have a question for you. If one buys US treasuries priced in USD, do they not have to buy USD to do that?
Yes, you are right. But I aint talking about investors, but about exporters of the world, mainly China and rest of the Asia and they already have those bucks. Those companies are full of USDs and since CBs are sending this doublesignal a) We gonna print, USD will weaken and b) We gonna buy loads of bonds, I think it is natural for those exporters to reposition portfolios. So they get rid of their FX reserves, and buy risk free long term Treasuries.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #67,235
  • Apr 15, 2013 2:57am Apr 15, 2013 2:57am
Gold is on Yearly low, what are the targets for BUY?
  • #67,236
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:02am Apr 15, 2013 3:02am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes, you are right. But I aint talking about investors, but about exporters of the world, mainly China and rest of the Asia and they already have those bucks. Those companies are full of USDs and since CBs are sending this doublesignal a) We gonna print, USD will weaken and b) We gonna buy loads of bonds, I think it is natural for those exporters to reposition portfolios. So they get rid of their FX reserves, and buy risk free long term Treasuries.
Ahh you mean their own treasuries... Not US treasuries. Right?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,237
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:05am Apr 15, 2013 3:05am
Quoting rekon67
Gold is on Yearly low, what are the targets for BUY?
Wait for the shouting to start and then go in the opposite direction.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,238
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:14am Apr 15, 2013 3:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
Ahh you mean their own treasuries... Not US treasuries. Right?
No mate, US Treasuries. I was talking only Asian manufacturers, but PBOC is like the bigest holder of USD in the world. They already have USD and already got a signal world CBs are determined to meet their target.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #67,239
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:17am Apr 15, 2013 3:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
Wait for the shouting to start and then go in the opposite direction. {image}
There are some webiners from xxx broker I attended last week and they were taking LIVE GOLD buy positions around 1550 level saying this is it and they were putting thousands of dollars on one single trade of buying gold, they were setting 7 days target to take profit, I wonder this drop might have hurt them badly.
  • #67,240
  • Apr 15, 2013 3:17am Apr 15, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
No mate, US Treasuries. I was talking only Asian manufacturers, but PBOC is like the bigest holder of USD in the world. They already have USD and already got a signal world CBs are determined to meet their target.
If China and other emerging markets were to buy US treasuries with their existing USD reserves, that would not devalue the USD at all. Of course it wouldn't appreciate the value either. However, it will certainly contribute towards keeping the US deficit in check through interest savings for the US government.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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