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  • #786,321
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:27am Apr 11, 2013 5:27am
Quoting vankola
Took a small short here. SL above the hump (1.31600) TP1 1.300 (Round number) TP2 1.2950
You are brave. Based on what ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #786,322
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:28am Apr 11, 2013 5:28am
Quoting hadox
stopped..
soo, caught on the wrong side today, does it matter ? nope, calculated risk - next one..

rougly 50 % of my trades are losses, the only thing that matters is my rr..

anyway, given my preffered entry's vs. the current levels my week is over, fridays tend to be a waste of time for me..

gl all
Patience is a virtue...
  • #786,323
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:28am Apr 11, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Firstboss
Interesting breakout in EUR against all pairs. The move north wasn't followed by GBP, AUD, NZD...




they actually moved first
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #786,324
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:28am Apr 11, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Alanamc
What about 1.3165 ?
I think 1.3165 to high.

I think now or never
  • #786,325
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:28am Apr 11, 2013 5:28am
flying whithout any reason, strong resistances are ahead and NY opening is coming sorry EUR u r in wrong place at the wrong moment
  • #786,326
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:29am Apr 11, 2013 5:29am
Quoting MaxDoom
well you will not be the first to say it nor the last but in all honesty even if you are right it means nothing. flip a coin and if it is heads go long tails short technically you will be right 50%, but even if most new traders do that 90% of them will lose. Why? because it is not really about the direction, it is all about trade and money management, there is always room for a successful short and a successful long from the same price. So the key is not what others are doing, it is all about what you are doing and how you do it that counts....
This is of paramount importance.

Everyone should print this off and stick to the top of their monitors...

Very well put Max.
  • #786,327
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:32am Apr 11, 2013 5:32am
Quoting peyman
flying whithout any reason, strong resistances are ahead and NY opening is coming sorry EUR u r in wrong place at the wrong moment
Actually pairs don't really need a reason to move up or down.

If a CB needs to rebalance it's balance sheet by buying eur, it'll move without a fundie reason.

Hence i'm done following fundamental reason for any moves.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #786,328
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:33am Apr 11, 2013 5:33am
Quoting vlady1974
I've seen this sentiment a few times. Just because it's a recognised level doesn't mean price will turn on it. I'm welcome to opinions and haters... but I am sure that big trades by big banks or corps don't give 2 hoots about 38 FIB if they have to purchase €150M EUR today for a deal....
sometimes it gives 2 times on fibo 38

not old example
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  • #786,329
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:34am Apr 11, 2013 5:34am
Quoting P.Action
3143 daily 100 sma 3160 daily high of 28.02 3171 mid point 38.2-50 fibo level. we will see which will be strong wall.
That's exactly what I'm seeing!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #786,330
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:34am Apr 11, 2013 5:34am
Quoting Cornelis
Earlyer I posted I have a theory that I see EUR/USD at 1.63xx in August Note this is pureley experemental and I would like your commenst on it, also this is the first time I used these tools so if i use them Incorrectley please correct me. Pardon the chart, it is very busy and looks alot more complicated than it actualy is...........................
You'll need a serious fundamental reason for that, and not only technical, and i'd like to hear it if any mate!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #786,331
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:34am Apr 11, 2013 5:34am
Quoting kuroro001
You are brave. Based on what ?
As soon as I can find how to post a chart, until then... my thought: last year 17th of september's top and 17th of october seems to be a good resistence! If I'm not right, than I'll pay... small lot really... I'm only technical guy. seeking for PPZ-s!
  • #786,332
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:34am Apr 11, 2013 5:34am
what's going on for EUR/JP, is that reason for this spike? or china doing something ?
  • #786,333
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:35am Apr 11, 2013 5:35am
I would perfer to print "Its all about what others are doing" and stick on my computer. But yeah I understand somewhat what he is trying to say.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #786,334
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:37am Apr 11, 2013 5:37am
Cornelis, I am going to have a lunch before NY starts and this seems like quite complicated chart, so I probably wont be able to go through it during NY trading hours. I will do my best to go through it during weekend or Asia. Going to PM what I find out. Just a disclaimer, I aint very good trader, just an analyst.

Brb, good luck here.

And please someone try to find out wtf was trigger.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #786,335
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:40am Apr 11, 2013 5:40am
Earlyer I posted I have a theory that I see EUR/USD at 1.63xx in August

Note this is pureley experemental and I would like your commenst on it, also this is the first time I used these tools so if i use them Incorrectley please correct me.

Pardon the chart, it is very busy and looks alot more complicated than it actualy is. So bare with me Im going to do the best to my still limmited knowlage to explain.

Here you see a chart that is in the weekley view
And with 2 downwards channels in green of the highes highs from 2007/06/xx till date and the lowest lows for same period
Also there is an upword trend green line for the lowest lows starting 2009/05/xx

Then youl see 1,2,3,4 Anderws Pichforks that I used. How I used them I took the High and the Lows on the downtrend and draged the tail to the previous Lowest Low this shows the paramiters for the maxumum highs. And as you can se if you look from 1 to 4 its constant at halfway Andrews Pichfork.

Then I went and drew in blue lin from each waves lowest low to the next highest high at each wave iterval. I noted that the pichfork corectly anticipated exactly where the highest high and the emerging trend line slice the downtrend green highest high. It even was spot on with the retrace in the middle of 3 and 4.

note where 5 should be there is also a correction that took place but now the trend hat turned back up and also predicts the high with Andrews pichfork wil slice the same at the highest high as the previous patterns. The only differance is the downtrend greel line of the highest high is a bit lower and cuts at 1.63xx

And then I added time frames and saw that the up trends lasted almost exactly 1 year and the down trends the same for all of the last 3 waves, and currently the wave we are trading in hasnt made it's mark as of yet, if patern highs and lows as well as timeframe. If the paterns hold it could meant 1.36xx by August

This is my theory and reason why I think EUR/USD will hed back to 1.63xx and only afterwards correct back down on the main downtrend. The pattern fits perfectly every wave so I like to belive this could hold ground.



But I draw this on pure inisiative and dont know if the way im anilizing can bear any merrit. Id like the hear everyones thoughts and comments.
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  • #786,336
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:42am Apr 11, 2013 5:42am
Quoting vlady1974
That's exactly what I'm seeing!

midpoints generally works. but in that level we will have 100 sma as a support. 3171-3143=28 pips room for short orders.
  • #786,337
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:44am Apr 11, 2013 5:44am
Quoting gatorinla
s/o -1/4% the original #2 bull at 3129 was hit.. the one at 3106 was overshot. most times after will retrace some. 3115 is a mid for a cub at 3110 bull #3 at 3150
void
3103 now with 115 mid for a cub
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #786,338
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:48am Apr 11, 2013 5:48am
Quoting Cornelis
Earlyer I posted I have a theory that I see EUR/USD at 1.63xx in August...
If that happens I'll eat both my shoes...raw.
  • #786,339
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:48am Apr 11, 2013 5:48am
Quoting Cornelis
Earlyer I posted I have a theory that I see EUR/USD at 1.63xx in August Note this is pureley experemental and I would like your commenst on it, also this is the first time I used these tools so if i use them Incorrectley please correct me. Pardon the chart, it is very busy and looks alot more complicated than it actualy is. So bare with me Im going to do the best to my still limmited knowlage to explain. Here you see a chart that is in the weekley view And with 2 downwards channels in green of the highes highs from 2007/06/xx till date and the lowest...
fundi wise, what will the crash of e-market exports to Asia and the u.s. do?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #786,340
  • Apr 11, 2013 5:49am Apr 11, 2013 5:49am
Quoting walkman
sometimes it gives 2 times on fibo 38 not old example {image}
I like that chart better. On a more serious note... yes, I do take note of fibs as important signposts. It's just that in my early days of learning, I definitely experienced the pain of trying to use Fibs as my trading decision. Sure, there are thousands of other traders who will see the level.... but as your chart shows, would a trader short again on the 3rd attempt? I'm NOW more of an advocate of looking at wider picture and not just an indi in isolation.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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