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  • #785,661
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:24am Apr 10, 2013 4:24am
Quoting forex4india1
so right now we have a scenario where aud, nzd, usd, euro, gbp all are bought by the market. what is sold then?
You have to cancel out the other half of the pair, otherwise it won't make sense.

ie. EURUSD rallying means that the dollar is being sold relative to EUR... etc.
once you cancel the same currency against all the majors, you should know which is which.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #785,662
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:24am Apr 10, 2013 4:24am
out of long @84 for +16
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #785,663
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:24am Apr 10, 2013 4:24am
Quoting 4exNinja
... I think EU rallied a bit lately not because Europe is now saved, but rather because a lot of people expect the Fed to ease a bit up when it comes to QE as some FOMC members indicated...which of course would justify the EUR rallying. However, if they really stick to their "employment and the economy has to improve for this to happen" condition, then that won't happen as soon as some people would like to think.
Mate, you are using wrong words here . Wrong for the ones who dont speak properly english, like me. If you say, ease up, talking about quantitative easing, it looks like if they were going to pump some more .

Anyway, mate your assumption in this case is wrong. I am talking about thought "lowering of USD pumping results in E/U bull". In fact it is the exact opposite. If they stop pumping cash in, EU will contract, resulting in superbear. I dont see slowing of printing press anytime soon.

Yea, I wear a tin foil hat and still keep on talking about that CB union. But mate, it really is here. It doesnt matter which CB prints the cash, they just use swap agreements and send the cash to their peers. The only reason why ECB doesnt print so far, is because Lisabon treaty prevents it. Prevents of monetization of sovereign debt to be precise. (so they are using another roads to do it, like EFSF, but thats another topic). Anyway, point is, FED and BOJ are using their quantitative easing not only to boost their exports/equities/yield curve, but also to prevent EU meltdown. Economy is so connected, that they simply cant let biggest GDP bloc in the world contract.

Just to the topic, washington post here covers how CB union was born.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #785,664
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:32am Apr 10, 2013 4:32am
the bearish momentum looks weak , not taking any trades at the moment.
  • #785,665
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:33am Apr 10, 2013 4:33am
Quoting vlady1974
Monday's rally started during the Asian session.... Japan or China buying EUR to hedge against USD?
Your guess is as good as mine...I admit I'm not a genius when it comes to fundamental soundbites as I tend to almost entirely base my trades on TA.

The one thing that confuses me a bit is them mentioning a phasing out of QE (with increasing frequency lately btw), while at the same time stressing that this is conditional on an improving employment and economic situation. Personally I don't really see an improvement (S&P rallying isn't the real economy!!!), so am I wrong in thinking expecting them to firm up their "end of QE" statement might be a bit premature?
  • #785,666
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:34am Apr 10, 2013 4:34am
Quoting SugarPink
yen. {image}
yen was dumped last thursday friday and again monday, tuesdays were spinning tops and today looks like another leg trying to get through resistance, struggling for now but they are quite good resistances, so is matter of being patinet, being careful
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #785,667
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:35am Apr 10, 2013 4:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate, you are using wrong words here . Wrong for the ones who dont speak properly english, like me. If you say, ease up, talking about quantitative easing, ...

...
very nice, mate. thanks
picking up fundies here n there
  • #785,668
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:36am Apr 10, 2013 4:36am
Quoting SugarPink
yen. {image}
Thanks for this SugarPink... I was trying to do that using paired charts but failed miserably.
Yes... it does look like YEN is the one being sold.

If I'm understanding this correctly, then BOJ is the one selling YEN. (Or at least influencing the selling of YEN).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #785,669
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:37am Apr 10, 2013 4:37am
Quoting KiwiTrada
yen was dumped last thursday friday and again monday, tuesdays were spinning tops and today looks like another leg trying to get through resistance, struggling for now but they are quite good resistances, so is matter of being patinet, being careful
yes :- )
Do you have any trades open ?
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #785,670
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:37am Apr 10, 2013 4:37am
back


i will move SL to 1.3060 because i don't trust German gov and FED policy
  • #785,671
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:41am Apr 10, 2013 4:41am
Err, I know it is silly entry and silly chart, but this is hell of a pressure up. And I am buing top, like a sir with balls of steel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silly.png Size: 34 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #785,672
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:42am Apr 10, 2013 4:42am
Quoting vlady1974
Thanks for this SugarPink... I was trying to do that using paired charts but failed miserably. Yes... it does look like YEN is the one being sold. If I'm understanding this correctly, then BOJ is the one selling YEN. (Or at least influencing the selling of YEN).
hmm.. BOJ is printing money and its buying Japan debt (reducing the yield) and other securities (ie, monetize its debt). Who is selling are the investors. The people who were still holding yen are selling their yen to other currencies and the other who were holding japanese debt are moving to europe debt right now. Becase Japanese yield is so low (BOJ is buying).
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #785,673
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:43am Apr 10, 2013 4:43am
Quoting SugarPink
yes :- ) Do you have any trades open ?
yes
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #785,674
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:47am Apr 10, 2013 4:47am
Thanks for the clarification Tom

Agree with you though that the US can't afford to stop printing for now...
  • #785,675
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:47am Apr 10, 2013 4:47am
Quoting ec_creep
...between 3092 and 3150 atm
bounced again off of that 92.. shite
  • #785,676
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:48am Apr 10, 2013 4:48am
Quoting 4exNinja
My FOMC thoughts: The press has been shouting the "end of QE" from the roof tops ever since a few FOMC members indicated they might start phasing out QE. HOWEVER, if you listened to Bernake lately there was a condition attached to this...employment and the economy have to actually improve. Now admittedly I'm no genius, but looking at the most recent US economic stats I simply can't claim it's improving. At best what we are seeing are mixed results. I therefore think a lot of people will be disappointed when they announce QE will continue as before...
Somehow I feel this is result of recent China Yuan appreciation. Bernake needs some time to react to yean's appreciation
  • #785,677
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:48am Apr 10, 2013 4:48am
IF we got another 4H candle close above 1.3110 that will be good
  • #785,678
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:51am Apr 10, 2013 4:51am
Quote
IF we got another 4H candle close above 1.3110 that will be good
good for wht??
whts your plane??

DON
  • #785,679
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:52am Apr 10, 2013 4:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Err, I know it is silly entry and silly chart, but this is hell of a pressure up. And I am buing top, like a sir with balls of steel. {image}
where did you get in? i cant see it on the chart...
  • #785,680
  • Apr 10, 2013 4:53am Apr 10, 2013 4:53am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Err, I know it is silly entry and silly chart, but this is hell of a pressure up. And I am buing top, like a sir with balls of steel. {image}
Something about the 1H that's telling me it's not a short... even though it looks like a top.
There's no immediacy atm to test and break 3073. You may just be right!

Watching...
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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