EurAnalysis

EU playing the CONfidence game

 

1. Still looking to converged avg objective at 1.3150-60
2. Hearing large European investors entering tentative longs
3. Asian cbs also underpinning the renewed confidence push
4. FI markets also reflecting blase attitude to negatives
5. We expect EUR affair to be a short term commitment
6. Portugal austerity/Italy politics provide nt banana skins

Can EU rely on Germany?

The euro zone may not be able to rely on Germany to drag it out of recession. Germany sends 40% of its exports to other euro countries, many of which are in the throes of austerity and recession. Recent data have drawn a mixed picture in Germany. Industrial production and orders data suggested hard data was catching up with sentiment indicators. German exports fell 1.5% mth/mth in Feb. Imports tumbled 3.8%, suggesting German consumers lack the confidence to make up the demand shortfall. Chart of German exports as a % of GDP: http://link.reuters.com/tad77s

EUR/USD – Euro Moves Higher on Strong German Data

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20130409/...g-german-data/

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 04.09.2013

EUR/USD Technical Analysis– Prices continue to push higher after putting in a bullish Harami candlestick pattern. Buyers narrowly broke above the 1.30 figure, exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3139. Trend line resistance-turned-support is at 1.2975, with a break back below that eyeing a larger downward-slowing barrier at 1.2783as well as the March 27 low at 1.2750. We continue to hold long.
http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png

Euro Breifing

[LONDON, 9 April, 12.45GMT] EUR/USD up from 1.3009 to 1.3068 in Asia as it rallied beside strong demand for EUR/JPY and presented an opportunity to trip 1.3050 stops. The cross peaked just shy of 130.00 barriers, before dropping back beside USD/JPY on misinterpreted comments from Jpn PM Abe advisor Hamada. EUR/USD posted 1.3006 before buyers emerged in front of well touted 1.3000 bids. Large European investors entering tentative longs, but sellers looking for levels at/above 1.3100. Option expiries at 1.3035, 1.3050 and 1.3060 have contained price action since. Bids at 1.2980-70-50 and offers from 1.3080-1.3100 with stops above. Recent chatter of Japanese investors moving in to European based bonds as BOJ makes the local JGB less attractive, is proving EUR supportive and some say lack of assaults on Italian/Spanish debt markets is due to Japanese demand. If we do manage to get to the 1.3100 handle, resistance is strong at 1.3110 (38.2% of the 1.3711/1,2740 move), while 100dma, 55dma are around 1.3150, along with high since 28 Feb at 1.3162.

looks like dealers are also bullish on EU.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/cftc-tff/main.html

1. EUR/USD boosted by strong EUR/JPY demand
2. Talk Japan investors of European bonds also supportive
3. Bears looking for selling opportunities on 1.3100 handle
4. Plenty of technical resistance 1.3100-1.3150

Tech trader

Out of 48 long +12 have existing long @84

Waiting to re eneter long

SSI snapshot: crowds still heavily net-short EURUSD, marginally net-long GBPUSD

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHaNfbdCEAEuTjw.png:large

EUR/USD threatens daily highs

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After being rejected from the 1.3070 zone and following a short-lived correction, the EUR/USD resumed the upside and reached fresh session highs as the US currency gives ground on positive market mood.

EUR/USD bounced from a low of 1.3005 and climbed back to the upper-side of today's range, printing a session high of 1.3065 in recent dealings. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3060, up 0.4% on the day and not far from its 3-week high of 1.3068 scored earlier.

If the EUR/USD breaks above 1.3068 (intraday high), it could extend gains to the 1.3100/1.3107 area (high Mar 15/psychological level). On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.3005 (intraday low), 1.2968 (Apr 8 low) and 1.2950 (high Apr 4).

Warning to short term bulls

 

1. 1.3075 hit but no follow through, light stops there likely still intact
2. Asian offers 1.3080-95 & cluster of strikes 1.3035,50 &65 exert bearish influence
3. Recent bulls flashed a warning, RSI on 4 hour chart diverges now rolling over
4. Bids still rest 1.3000-10 & 1.2960-80
5. Stops are through 1.2960, if tripped s-t bulls likely throw in the towel
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/byb37t

Short covering rally may stall @ 1.3200

Ever since last week's BoJ decision sparked a wave of changes in investor positioning around the globe, most of the euro's rally has been driven by speculators covering their bets that the euro will drop, says George Dowd, who heads Newedge USA's foreign-exchange trading desk in Chicago. The trend may continue to $1.3150-$1.32, but won't likely have legs after that, he said. Once those old bets have all been cleared, it may leave the euro vulnerable, especially if the expected shift by Japanese real-money investors into European safe-haven assets (such as German bunds) never materialize, Dowd says. Euro is at $1.3033 from $1.3010 late Monday, according to EBS via CQG

E/U is aiming High for the Day and may be rest of the Week as well. TWT.

Still standing down on going long here.

#1 its within my MM Price Saturation zone and #2 5 & 15 havent X.

Even if they did #1 over rules.

Your buy orders are going to get executed soon.

So 1.3100 is about to be taken away!

Daily is shaping like Marubozu. 5 Hours still left on my broker platform.

FX Live

Fresh high at 1.3081. Those offers put up solid resistance on the first attempt but the second push broke through. Strong offers in the 1.3100/15 zone, which is a solid zone of technical resistance that I highlighted earlier.

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