EurAnalysis

it seems sellers have regained control of the wheel,
1.306(200 MA on H4) rejected PA. and they are no looking to
buy beyond this point.

2950 is fair IMO

FULL RUN DOWN


Option expiries 10am NY cut

 

1. USDJPY 96.80,97.00,98.00,98.75,99.00,99.25,100.00
2. EURUSD 1.2825,1.2950,1.3000,1.3035,1.3050,1.3060
3. GBPUSD 1.4950,1.5225,1.5300
4. AUDUSD 1.0325, 1.0330,1.0350,1.0380,1.0400,1.0450
5. USDCHF 0.9300
6. AUDJPY 103.00
7. EURGBP 0.8900
8. GBPJPY 151.00
9. EURCHF 1.2210
10. EURAUD 1.2530
11. EURSEK 8.30

Good morning.
There's still upside left in this pair for now. Of course it is corrective in nature, as ultimately we're heading lower. Just have to be a bit patient. I'm still aiming for a 1.3150 area high

EU MORNING CALL - 09/04/13

**Chinese CPI (Mar) Y/Y 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.2%), PPI (Mar) Y/Y -1.9% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. -1.6%)
China food prices fell 2.9% M/M in March with the main contributing factor to the softer than expected CPI reading is the moderation in food prices after the Lunar New Year.

**Japan PM Abe said government wants to maintain trust in bond market by pursuing sustainable fiscal policy
and that the government is always monitoring moves in the JGB market.

**Fed's Bernanke said the economy is still far from desired performance level.

**The ECB have refuted weekend reports suggesting that the national central banks of Italy and Spain had violated ECB lending rules, saying they are incorrect.

**S&P says court ruling on budget measures has no immediate effect on Portugal's sovereign ratings.

**UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like (Mar) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 2.7%)

**UK RICS House Price Balance (Mar) M/M -1% vs. Exp. -5% (Prev. -6%, Rev. -7%)

i got pending there too. but this move i think would last for a day or two
cos looking at the daily we still got room up (plenty) until 318 .IMO

so PT what do you think?

ciao, why 3150 area? maybe 100 daily MA?

we r expecting a small correction up..

morning

i'm a lucky bastard, i was scalping E/U overnight, suddenly i was -50 x 4

PEOPLE WHAT'S HAPPENING?
WHOs FLUSSHING?

PEOPLE WHAT'S HAPPENING?
WHOs FLUSSHING SO SOON?

looks like feb 28 march 8 trend line is holding as resistance on the 4H.

Yes 3180 is quite likely. As I always say, let's get there first.

100 daily SMA
Falling channel resistance
Right shoulder completion of H/S
Top of falling expanding wedge

E/U Daily:

thx PT for sharing. great thread you have here. i'm anticipating that i will learn a lot about FA.

My pleasure Ahab.
Hope you catch your whale

long @48

For Information Purposes...

Notes From Underground: Kuroda Sings Karaoke … “We Didn’t Start The Fire”

"As my readers as well aware, bond rates and yield curves are very important indicators for understanding all aspects of foreign currencies, commodities and all financial assets … now even more so. And a word of caution to ECB President Mario Draghi: The German elections cannot come soon enough. If Europe holds firm to its present policy, it will be the recipient of major capital inflows and the euro may be driven much higher on a relative basis, unless there is a major political debacle."

Yes, the U.S. and Canadian unemployment data were well below market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. were half of the consensus number and under the 110,000 NFP that we wanted to see so as to test the resolve of the recent equity market rally. Not only were the jobs created numbers weak–manufacturing actually lost jobs–but the important average hourly earnings were flat (0.2% increase expected) so there is no growth in consumer spending potential. As poor as the data release was, by day’s end the SPOO and DOW rallied well off the lows made early in the day. The impact from poor economic fundamentals was not strong enough to overcome the continued release of central bank liquidity into the global economy.

The Canadian employment data was also a disappointment as more than 50,000 full-time jobs were lost when the market had been expecting a slight increase. The poor Canadian data was a total reversal of the previous month’s surprising strong growth numbers and thus we caution that one month a trend doth not make, especially as the later-morning release of the Canadian PMI Ivey report was much stronger than anticipated. With no convincing picture of stronger economic activity it is important to analyze the full impact from the Japanese decision to dynamically increase its monetary stimulus program.

***BACK To the front on the Japanese declaration of war on the European Central Bank. The G-7 has maintained that domestic policy objectives of quantitative easing are a net positive for the world, the only problem is if a central bank ramps up it quantitative easing by PURCHASING BONDS AND ASSETS OF OTHER COUNTRIES. THIS WOULD BE A POLICY THAT WOULD CROSS THE LINES OF ACCEPTABLE. This is also the stance taken by Chairman Bernanke in his speech that I have previously cited, given in London on March 25, 2013. Bernanke said: “Again, the distinction between monetary policies aimed at domestic objectives and trade-diverting exchange rate devaluations or other protectionist measures is critical.” It seems that the new Japanese policy obscures those distinctions. How?

This is the critical point that must be understood for the impact of the BOJ‘s recent decision. THE RAMPING UP OF THE BOJ BOND BUYING, ITS EFFORTS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE MONEY SUPPLY, AND THE DESIRE TO CREATE 2% INFLATION MEANS THAT JAPANESE INVESTORS AND LARGE INSTITUTIONS WOULD BE CRAZY NOT TO UNLOAD THEIR MASSIVE HOLDINGS OF LONG-TERM BONDS TO THE MOST READY BUYER … THE BOJ. By unloading bonds to the BOJ the Japanese investor will be forced to either by the Nikkei or search for higher yielding bonds in foreign destinations. Yes, the BOJ will not directly be purchasing foreign assets in contravention of the G-7 agreement but its policy of FINANCIAL REPRESSION of Japanese citizens will force insurance companies and private citizens to undertake such purchases.

The action in the European debt markets on Thursday and Friday was certainly evidence of the impact of BOJ policy. The yields on 10-year notes all across Europe is indicative of the search for yield. French bond rates have fallen 25 BASIS POINTS since the Japanese announcement, as have the bonds of Belgium, Austria,Italy and Ireland. It will be difficult to comfortably short the debt of any highly rated sovereign now that the Japanese private investor is on the search for higher yielding instruments to replace long-held JGBs. The average Japanese investor could comfortably own domestic bonds at very low yields as long as prices remained steady or were in a deflationary mode. The BOJ just ended the security of that investment strategy. In a globalized world of FREE CAPITAL FLOWS IT IS DIFFICULT TO HALT POLICY OUTCOMES AT THE BORDER.

As my readers as well aware, bond rates and yield curves are very important indicators for understanding all aspects of foreign currencies, commodities and all financial assets … now even more so. And a word of caution to ECB President Mario Draghi: The German elections cannot come soon enough. If Europe holds firm to its present policy, it will be the recipient of major capital inflows and the euro may be driven much higher on a relative basis, unless there is a major political debacle. As Kuroda was heard singing :
Click here to read the full article…

JK on FX video and commentary

http://www.jkonfx.com/

Euro on autopilot as FOMC minutes loom

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency continues to trade in a narrow range this week, despite edging above 1.3000 after last week’s ECB decision and poor US jobs report.
Last night’s speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke highlighted the fact that the Fed is in no rush whatsoever to scale back or halt the ongoing QE programme in the near or medium term, supporting the EUR/USD. Furthermore, the cross should find extra support as Japanese investors look to be starting to take advantage of the increased and cheap liquidity pumped by the BoJ, seeking higher yields outside the domestic borders.

… 1.2900 the line in the sand?

As long as the cross navigates above the key 200-day moving average in the boundaries of 1.2900, the upside should remain alive. The euro docket ahead in the week would pose no downside threat a priori, being the potential market-movers the above mentioned FOMC minutes due tomorrow and the US retail sales due on Friday.

The political noise surrounding Italy, Cyprus and Portugal as of late seems to be dying off as these fronts remain curiously (dangerously?) quiet. Fair is to say that any progress in the direction of some sort of government in Italy would be another source of euro strength, although the triad of protagonists – Bersani, Berlusconi and Grillo – continues to debate the matter within their own parties, leaving President Napolitano and the entire Italian population scratching their heads.

From a technical perspective, the cross is extending its trading beyond the downtrend channel set from February highs above 1.3700 and hovering over March highs at 1.3050 (March 25th). The immediate hurdle awaits around 1.3075 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2012-February 2013 upside), en route to the region of 1.3100/20, where sit the March 15th high and the 38.2% retracement of the February-April slide.
On the flip side, support levels align at 1.2890/95, where sits the 200-day moving average, reinforced by December lows around 1.2880/85. A dip beyond that would expose the region of 1.2660/80, where converge the 61.8% retracement of the summer’12-February’13 ascent and November lows.

Pipnography