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  • #784,761
  • Apr 8, 2013 2:34pm Apr 8, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting 4exNinja
They are planning to essentially print themselves to happiness with $1.4trillion...something that I simply can't see working. 263% debt to GDP ratio is beyond awful, it's a miracle they lasted so long, and imo the sheer amount they're willing to print shows a great deal of desperation...similar to when the BOE raised rates during Black Wednesday, just in reverse. Also, it "might" even work if they'd be the only nation devaluing their currency...but they're clearly not. They can devalue it all they want, if the other countries are doing the...

Also, for a long time the Japanese citizens were big savers.. so on one hand they're trying to jump start their economy by wiping off their people's savings.. They should know better.. As you said, this might not end well..
  • #784,762
  • Edited 2:51pm Apr 8, 2013 2:38pm | Edited 2:51pm
Quoting MaxDoom
here is my updated view on EJ.... I am ignoring smaller tf because they only go to serve the daily weekly in this move. looking at the daily, the correction of the 94.1x to 127.7x swing, ended shallow when the price was taken out in the last 24 hours. that gives a new upswing to try and target the end of. In this case we can look at a possible 5 wave trend on the daily would give us a target zone that covers 128.4x to 133.2x and we have just entered that zone. moving out to the weekly looking at the next swing down 139.2x to 94.1x it has retraced...

EJ still in the zone....

catch you tomorrow
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  • #784,763
  • Apr 8, 2013 2:41pm Apr 8, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting attila
Also, for a long time the Japanese citizens were big savers.. so on one hand they're trying to jump start their economy by wiping off their people's savings.. They should know better.. As you said, this might not end well..
I think they're gambling on the US ending QE early...something I simply don't see happening given the recent economic stats from the US. Hell, the US isin't really all that better off if you see through the manipulation of economic indicators (seasonal adjustment, lol).

The only reason the US is still afloat is because they manage the world's reserve currency. That's the ONLY real reason imo. A reason that might not be valid in the medium to long term given how many countries have been switching to alternative currencies lately.

When the Sterling was replaced as the world's reserve currency it lost almost 80% of its value overnight. Now the dollar might not be replaced with another currency but rather a basket of currencies, but what's clear is that in the medium to long term the US won't be able to print themselves out of trouble. Once that happens the US$ will devalue even more than it already has, which in turn means Japan will suffer even more.

It's a vicious cycle and I really don't see a solution...only more "kicking down the can". I wish they had bitten the bullet like Iceland did. Yes it sucked, yes a lot of people lost a lot of money, but at least they had the ability to restart in a (hopefully) sustainable way before everyone else.
  • #784,764
  • Apr 8, 2013 2:47pm Apr 8, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting 4exNinja
I think they're gambling on the US ending QE early...something I simply don't see happening given the recent economic stats from the US. Hell, the US isin't really all that better off if you see through the manipulation of economic indicators (seasonal adjustment, lol). The only reason the US is still afloat is because they manage the world's reserve currency. That's the ONLY real reason imo. A reason that might not be valid in the medium to long term given how many countries have been switching to alternative currencies lately. When the...
Like what, the Euro or Yen? The US still holds enormous political power over the globe, unlike Great Britain whose empire collapsed over the course of 50 years.

Edit: The fall of the British Empire was clearly more protracted than 50 years but it really fell apart after WWI and II.
  • #784,765
  • Apr 8, 2013 2:53pm Apr 8, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting Kanzler
Like what, the Euro or Yen? The US still holds enormous political power over the globe, unlike Great Britain whose empire collapsed over the course of 50 years. Edit: The fall of the British Empire was clearly more protracted than 50 years but it really fell apart after WWI and II.
I'm talking about all the Middle Eastern and Asian countries who already started to replace the dollar.

Ask yourself this: What's more powerful nowadays...economic or military power? If it's the former, it's clear that in this century the East will beat the West, and it won't be a close fight either. If it's the latter, when has the US last won a war? They didn't win in Iraq/Afghanistan, didn't win in Vietnam...seriously...tell me...when did they last win or when did any of the wars they fought the last few decades benefit anyone but their defence contractors?

In short: Yes, the US is still a powerhouse...no doubt about that. However, while 20-30 years ago we lived in a unilateral world with the US being the uncontested leader, we now live in a multilateral world with more than one superpower. I'm using the word superpower in an economic sense by the way...because I don't think the military can save you if you're in economic troubles, not in the long run.
  • #784,766
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:00pm Apr 8, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting hadox
1.2991 key for today and tommorrow..
looks like it's gonna be an insidebar on the daily.. FOMC wednesday...

perhaps som chop the next couple of days..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #784,767
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:01pm Apr 8, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting 4exNinja
I'm talking about all the Middle Eastern and Asian countries who already started to replace the dollar. Ask yourself this: What's more powerful nowadays...economic or military power? If it's the former, it's clear that in this century the East will beat the West, and it won't be a close fight either. If it's the latter, when has the US last won a war? They didn't win in Iraq/Afghanistan, didn't win in Vietnam...seriously...tell me...when did they last win or when did any of the wars they fought the last few decades benefit anyone but their defence...
The big problem I see is that there really isn't a replacement for the dollar, unless we're looking at the Chinese Yuan. And last I knew China wasn't keen on valuing their currency even at a fair price.

The middle eastern nations that have switched to the Euro might be sweating at this point...

I'm no expert in economics though so if I'm ignorant here please forgive me.
  • #784,768
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:04pm Apr 8, 2013 3:04pm
He has improved some new tricks

What the heeeelllll...???!!!??? FX-23 FX 24, what is going on...! Somebody punch me...!!!


mercy seat
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21:36:29 {prospero:mercy seat} In case you have started to sell it around those areas as I did ... and I have been long at first as well as you might have been noticed ... then you can expect a move towards around FX 20 ... FX 21 ... FX 22 ... as an ideal immediate TGT ... and anything around FX 23 - FX 24 must hold in order to keep uptrending potential intact ...
  • #784,769
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:05pm Apr 8, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Kanzler
The big problem I see is that there really isn't a replacement for the dollar, unless we're looking at the Chinese Yuan. And last I knew China wasn't keen on valuing their currency even at a fair price. The middle eastern nations that have switched to the Euro might be sweating at this point... I'm no expert in economics though so if I'm ignorant here please forgive me.
Weighted basked of currencies will eventually be introduced...mostly because countries won't be able to agree on just one.
  • #784,770
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:07pm Apr 8, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting math_GB
He has improved some new tricks What the heeeelllll...???!!!??? FX-23 FX 24, what is going on...! Somebody punch me...!!! mercy seat Member Member Since Mar 2010 26,773 Posts 3 members viewing: mercy seat, Invisible, Tanaka [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/forumdisplay.php?f=46"]Members'...
Because posting Commercial is not allowed in general section.
  • #784,771
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:12pm Apr 8, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Ken A
Because posting Commercial is not allowed in general section.
So did he accept he is here for commercial interest...? What is all that FX 20 sequence, this is all new
  • #784,772
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:19pm Apr 8, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting math_GB
So did he accept he is here for commercial interest...? What is all that FX 20 sequence, this is all new
He/she keeps talking alone for what? Then posting material to attract attentions for what?
  • #784,773
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:25pm Apr 8, 2013 3:25pm
What is the diference of mercy_seat Fx-21 and your trend lines and ABCD and rectagles ? nothing.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #784,774
  • Edited 3:54pm Apr 8, 2013 3:30pm | Edited 3:54pm
Quoting attila
right. that's how it should be used imo if one wants to incorporate it into their trading.. It can be useful...Looking at m15 now.. its this a 3rd wave as part of the h1 2nd wave (which I turn should be a wave C of an ABC wave 4 correction)? maybe.. or just an abc correction w 2 on m15.. I guess that low will decide what in the world it is.. Looking at other factors, I think the low will give.. need another 35 min see how the h4 will close...
Not quite following u. Do you have a chart.

Do you think we are in a 4th wave correction with a 5th wave to come ? What I see is that both up and downs now have 3wave structures. so very unclear atm
but it does look like a 4th wave. What doesn't make sense in this upleg is that the "supposed" Wave 1 is longer than the "supposed" Wave 3. Wave 3 should allways be longer than wave 1, and it's not.

However, My take is that we have the high in place on this upleg and that prices should zigzag lower from here, but that's another story :-)


EDIT: Perhaps its forming a triangle here... That should thrust upwards before turning lower
  • #784,775
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:36pm Apr 8, 2013 3:36pm
I know F-22 but not related to Forex. It's a Raptor. Probably he is posting on behalf of Lockheed Martin, he keeps saying "we" then something about space craft

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  • #784,776
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:41pm Apr 8, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Ken A
I know F-22 but not related to Forex. It's a Raptor. Probably he is posting on behalf of Lockheed Martin, he keeps saying "we" then something about space craft {image}
F-22 looks like one of those origami paper airplanes with death from above. BAD ASS
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #784,777
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:43pm Apr 8, 2013 3:43pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
F-22 looks like one of those origami paper airplanes with death from above. BAD ASS
Yes, please meet the Pilot
  • #784,778
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:49pm Apr 8, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting math_GB
He has improved some new tricks What the heeeelllll...???!!!??? FX-23 FX 24, what is going on...!
New for him maybe, but old to any FF members that have been a'rd for awhile. Basically, someone intentionally trolls for, or maybe simply gains a following on some thread or other, then sooner or later gets this great idea to ease everyone away to a private corner (like he has often alluded to before now) where they can carry on out of the gaze of FF members. Except for maybe misusing the FF environment for questionable purposes, there's nothing wrong with that in theory... other members "in good standing" within the FF community have done that in the past for reasons of their own, as is their choice to do so. History would show that even that was no assurance of intentions. If everyone is of a peer level in experience or ability, & can adequately watch their Purse, then it could be quite a lot of fun, I suppose.. while it lasts. Everyone always seemed to wind up back here tho.

In a few very high profile cases however, where there was a "charismatic" Pied Piper sort of leader with an agenda who appeared to have some novel technique, or maybe a cryptic strategy that needed decoding to work, it did in fact it turn into a Disaster for nearly everyone involved. Anyone else here remember the old pipsnipers debacle,? If so, let's just leave it at that. That horse don't need to be beat again (not in public anyways).

There were other instances as well that started out one way, then eventually morphed into a Sad Ending for someone, and for as long as I have been at FF, Admin has always taken an exceedingly dim view of these things w/o necessarily feeling the need to evaluate or pass some sort of judgement on the integrity of the folks involved. Once burned... Again, I could name several names, & so could some of you, but I don't think that would be constructive.

In this case tho, it's what simply looks like a Skype or some other chat or IM activity log that he's cutting & pasting into his thread for reasons only he can understand. I mean, the peeps he's chatting with already got the Goods, right? So what's the repost for? I dunno...

To get the secret Decoder Ring to those labels or whatever other gimmick he comes up with, why then... you'd have to take the Red pill, wash it down with some Kool-Aid, & promise never to argue or get contrary with Papa mercy, right? Good luck with that....
FUBAR...
  • #784,779
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:49pm Apr 8, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting SugarPink
What is the diference of mercy_seat Fx-21 and your trend lines and ABCD and rectagles ? nothing.
The latter is a forex system...the former a livestock weighing indicator.

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Have to admit I am curious though 'cause I always want to know how others trade...but it seems like every time someone asks mercy they only get cryptic "reverso" answers.
  • #784,780
  • Edited 4:04pm Apr 8, 2013 3:51pm | Edited 4:04pm
Ok, I ve made a little research. You are free to read it as well, all is written here:
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/measure...e_m/index.htm/

So, BOJ had a long time program called Asset Purchase Program(further called program)
In addition to this program, BOJ regularly buys JGBs worth 21,6 Tr Yen per year.
So, these are changes in goals of the program till Dec 2013, mapping evolution since April (bcs I didnt want to read it all).

27 April - +5 Tr JGB
19 Sept - +5 Tr JGB
+5 Tr T-Bills
30 Oct - +3 Tr Corporate bonds, ETFs, Real estate
20 Dec– + 5Tr JGB
+5 Tr T-Bills
Current programs stand at 120 Tr Yen per year. 15 of which is new Loan support program, stimulating bank lending facility.

Then Kuroda takes lead:
Jan 22 – Introduction of "open-ended asset purchasing method" – changing current program to +24 Tr JGBs per year from 2014. And +120 Tr of T-Bills per year
Interesting quote BOJ
"Particularly, for some time, following the introduction of this method, the amount of monthly purchases is specified at about 13 trillion yen, 2 trillion yen of which is JGBs"

Whole program now totals 156 Tr of purchases per year. Strange thing is, the´r simultaneously saying it is planned since 2014 and quote above suggests it started immediately.

April 4 – Introduction of "quantitative and qualitative monetary easing" – Asset purchase program was terminated.
+ 50Tril of JGBs per year (so here is the part where they´ve doubled)

So right now, we stand at +120 Tr of T-Bills and + 50 Tr of JGBs per year under current program. +21 Tr of JGBs are bought regularly.

Dunno when are JGBs auctions though. I think they are buying on daily basis. Since asset purchase program was terminated, I believe the´ve already started to run new one.

Interesting part are those T-Bills, dont you think?

Yes, I have nothing to do and like bank releases.

Have a good night, or whatever you have ,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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