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Sonic R. System

  • #45,841
  • Apr 6, 2013 8:42pm Apr 6, 2013 8:42pm
A Lesson On Market Manipulators

Here is the same chart used in the previous post. Something else is to be learned from the price action illustrated, and that is we are not dealing with a "free market", but a casino run by some outfits with practically unlimited funds to use to move prices whenever and however they damn well feel like affording.

In conjunction with the multple USD high impact releases Friday, there was this 100+ pips run up. The majority of currency traded was traded by the MMs (Market Manipulators: market makers, large trading houses like GS, large hedge funds, and sometimes central banks), who have huge amounts of money and credit to instantly get more when wanted. So, the bulk of the volume was theirs, not from retailers. Now, after the second high, which was the highest high, take a closer look at what happened to the trading activity.

As you can see, activity rapidly tapered off, eventually to the pre-release lows. Again, the majority of currency traded is by the MMs, and you can tell right away that they traded a lot less as they worked the price back down.

So, shall we ask the obvious question? If the multiple USD releases were all that good, enough so as to "have" the MMs drive the price up 100+ pips, then what in hell happened to justify the price falling back down 60% before the day was even over? Justification? You see, market prices are determined by the MMs, plain and simple. News comes and goes, sometimes a reason for a move one way or the other, but mostly just as opportunity for the MMs to jerk the price around to wipe others out and steal their money.

This is the market. Prices are not based on any sensible or cohesive and intrinsic value. Prices are what the MMs make them. And the MMs make prices change whenever they want, by any degree they want to afford, in order to wipe others out and steal their money. News, releases, etc., well they are most of the time just used for "timing" of some of the MMs moves. Sometimes the MMs will move prices "according" to the news, sometimes not, and often both ways, and even sometimes one of two ways more than once! We are not trading a "free market. We are trading a price manipulated market. It has always been that way and it always will be because those with the most money run things, and they run things their way!

All this being said, we can still profitably trade. It is all in learning how to under these conditions.

-tah
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  • #45,842
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:10pm Apr 6, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting JRissa
I'd say the price got hiked somewhat on Yen pairs Lets see how low it will come back... Would you still consider MMs might be preparing for bearish move? I'm loading shorts at the moment. {image}
Yen Pairs, MMs Bulls or Bears

Using GY as an example, Friday the MMs pumped prices again. They did this the same time as they moved other pairs in conjunction with the multiple USD high impact releases. Not that the releases actually had anything to do with it all, it was just a "timing" thing for what, I suspect, the MMs already had planned for every forex pair, no matter what the releases contained.

So, the Yen pairs got another pump. The MMs must figure on somebody waiting at the top of these pumps to buy what the MMs are dumping. That is the strangest part to figure sometimes, If the MMs are pumping and dumping, step by step buying low and selling high, who is conveniently on the other side selling low and buying high step by step? I won't go so far as to say there is corruption here, a "set of double books" on the liquidity providing banks' computers to be "settled sometime later, weeks, months or years down the road, but it gets real hard to believe at times that everything is on the up and up.

No matter, the higher they go the further they have to fall. The critical part is not to overindulge and run the account down while not having any idea how far this gambit by the MMs might take these prices.

Are the MMs bulls or bears? Sure looks in the near term they remain bulls, step by step. But, I also believe each step up is a shorting place for them also. They can be both buying low and selling high, step by step, and at the same time selling more at the tops of each step, building a large short position for the eventual reversal, which has massive potential. In other words, they are also longer term bears.

That is what it looks like to me, short term bulls (which may soon be coming to an end) and longer term bears.

Finally, the highs Friday were made on decreasing volume, without notable high activity levels after the late day highs were attained. Could this be just due to not many organizations trading, low liquidity for closing longs and opening shorts? Or, and this could be a serious factor, were the MMs involved the only "bulls" around, with everyone else standing on the bear side of the line, which would have kept those "bulls" from pulling off a big "take" at the tops! I think this is very likely. If it is the case, then a true reversal of the Yen pairs is not far away.
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  • #45,843
  • Edited 11:24pm Apr 6, 2013 10:39pm | Edited 11:24pm
Quoting Tymedu
Last BoJ decision killed the yen, analyst are aiming to 100 in UJ. In my opinion short term resistance could be 98-98.5 but I´m pretty sure the UJ will hit 100, the question is when will it do it.
The YEN Sting (and the Banks Stink)

Maybe. Maybe the bank's "decision statement" and maybe the opinion of "analysts" and other "talking heads" can magically weaken the YEN, but I seriously doubt that.

So, let's be fair and look at the other side of the coin. When central banks speak, folks listen up. So, when appropriate "talking heads" proclaim the YEN must get weaker as part of improving an economy, well, folks believe and think the YEN will weaken. And as it does, as it has, folks are reassured that the banks have things well in-hand, and that all will come out rosey.

So, what is the other side? The other side is this, the super-rich control the money. They control the banks, the politicians and the laws that govern bank operations. And these people really don't care about "economies" as you and I think they do. They really care mostly for their own slices of heaven, and preserving them and the where-with-all to grow them,.....and to hell with the rest of the world! That is, after all, why the world is already in a mess. They caused it, and if the boat sinks with the rest of us on it, it won't be before they have made it to safe haven.

How? Well one way would be to get folks convinced the YEN is destined to weakness. Talk it up and then use bank trading desks to start it off in that direction, and to continue to help it along when needed. Then, when everybody else gets really into selling the YEN, the central banks (and the super-rich) get into buying,....for days, week, even months! There are fortunes to be made here! And when the bubble bursts,....when everyone else discovers "What the F...k, the YEN is actually worth more than others, a lot more!" and everyone else turns around and starts buying, guess who already owns a huge chunk of the country's coin! And when everyone starts buying and causing the price to rise, guess who stands to rake in fortunes!

You got it! The banks and the super-rich! The very ones that created and promoted this grand YEN sting! The very ones responsible for the global financial collapse in the first place! The very ones that are making sure if anyone comes out suffering, it won't be them!

Oh, and the "economy"? Well, as things always go, hard working "Joes" will continue to work hard, muddle thru and eventually things will start to turn around. Not because the banks and the super-rich really did anything but line their own pockets, but because more good and honest folks just worked harder and longer.

-tah
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  • #45,844
  • Apr 7, 2013 1:07am Apr 7, 2013 1:07am
TAH,

Here's the usdcad run-up you mentioned in post 45843.
Just enough to hit the Monthly Pivot and probably a few stops on the way up.

PH
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  • #45,845
  • Apr 7, 2013 1:17am Apr 7, 2013 1:17am
Quoting pip_hunter
TAH, Here's the usdcad run-up you mentioned in post 45843. Just enough to hit the Monthly Pivot and probably a few stops on the way up. PH {image}
UCad:

Personally, I don't pay much attention to Daily pivots, let alone Monthly pivots. I prefer to analyze based on price action and volume relative to S&R.

If looking at higher TF charts, the daily demonstrates an inclining channel, with one strong bear candle hitting the lower support and the next a strong bull candle starting the move up. The Dragon might transition to up, but flat right now. The Trend Line is angled up. Not to worry that the price was pulled back later on Friday, after the day high was made. That pull back down was on low volume followed by higher volumes at the attained lows. The MMs are bulls. They just reset the price low again as an area to start the next week off at. And they took last minute advantage of whatever longs they could get down there before the market closed.

Just My Take,
-tah
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  • #45,846
  • Apr 7, 2013 3:51am Apr 7, 2013 3:51am
hello

consider changing the following parameter:

"right side line extension = 10 or more"

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  • #45,847
  • Apr 7, 2013 5:41am Apr 7, 2013 5:41am
Hi, professor TAH.
I would like to thank you for your excellent support in our educational process. Thank you that you learn us so important and little-known things :-) This is very serious and very important staff.

On your chart you have PVA instead of VSA. Can you put screen comparing the VSA and PVA on the same graph? I would like to see the exact differences between them.
When do you planning to provide the next edition TAH template?

Best regards
Astra
  • #45,848
  • Apr 7, 2013 6:13am Apr 7, 2013 6:13am
Quoting traderathome
Yen Pairs, MMs Bulls or Bears Using GY as an example, Friday the MMs pumped prices again. They did this the same time as they moved other pairs in conjunction with the multiple USD high impact releases. Not that the releases actually had anything to do with it all, it was just a "timing" thing for what, I suspect, the MMs already had planned for every forex pair, no matter what the releases contained. So, the Yen pairs got another pump. The MMs must figure on somebody waiting at the top of these pumps to buy what the MMs are dumping. That is the...
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  • #45,849
  • Apr 7, 2013 6:50am Apr 7, 2013 6:50am
Quoting traderathome
Price Volume Analysis Here is another lessson using price and volume to analyze if MMs are bulls or bears. The M15 picture attached shows the MMs price drive up in conjunction with the multiple USD high impact releases on Friday. Were the releases responsible? Sometimes not. Quite frankly, many times the MMs already have their plans for price, no matter what news comes out. Anyway, two important clues about MMs is reveal here. Firstly, Thursday the MMs tanked the price again, something they've been doing for a month. Now, the move down (red volume...

very good prof. TAH... you are Great!


and don't forget the kindness of the new launch new SonicR PVA, ok?
  • #45,850
  • Apr 7, 2013 8:40am Apr 7, 2013 8:40am
Good Ole Advice..


Sonic
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  • #45,851
  • Apr 7, 2013 10:17am Apr 7, 2013 10:17am
some experience

#1 there is a huge gap between market analysis and trading markets to
make money.
#2 There is no relationship between being "right" and making money.
#3 While markets are not predictable people are.
#4 Anything can happen in the markets so how worthwhile is a market
opinion?
#5 Having a definable game plan and following it will overcome poor
analysis.
#6 I know some very rich traders but I have yet to meet a rich analyst.
#7 You should never give out market advice because readers don't need
your bad advice and they will ignore your good advice so don't give them
any advice.
#8 A correct market opinion does not answer the questions of how and
when do I place a bet, when do I know I am wrong, how big is my bet in
terms of dollar or percent risk, and most important how do I manage my
trades when they are working.
#9 Some very smart people think the stock market is going up. Some
other very smart people think the stock market is going down. Since I
don't have a clue what the stock market is going to do I totally agree with
both opinions.
#10 Managing the money and more importantly managing the trade is
more important than being "right".
#11 A good trade is a trade which was entered and exited following one's
rules regardless of the dollar outcome be it a gain or a loss.
#12 Most newsletters offer both sides regarding market direction.
Whichever way the market goes will then be highlighted in subsequent
newsletters as if the writer new what was coming.
#13 The more negative email you receive regarding a market opinion the
more you should bet.
#14 If you receive emails endorsing your view you might want to re-think
your opinion.
#15 You learn very little "watching" someone else trade and you might
very well harm yourself as a trader by following the advice of others. Be
your own man or in one case lady!
#16 Keeping a trading diary on a daily basis will teach you how you think.
Be honest and don't edit your diary in hindsight. Again trading is not about
right and wrong but it is about doing and not doing.

make money !!!!

nice chartin audusd H4 to me

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enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #45,852
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:30pm Apr 7, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting dany78
{image}
EJ:

Dany78, what, exactly is the purpose of your post? Without a clear purpose, without a clear message (right or wrong) your post is a waste of precious space on this thread. Students trying to learn how to trade the Sonic R. System have no time to wade thru posts with oblique meaning, or no meaning whatsoever.

As for your lone picture, it would appear you are suggesting the price could go higher due to a possible TL (red) that you drew. Sure, anything is possible. Look at my picture, too. It shows a swing area off to the left. It shows the bisecting line of the swing. It shows another area constructed by dropping down from that bisector to significant S&R and by setting the high of the area the same distance above the bisector. As you can see, current weekly PA has already hit the top of this second area. This is just as valid a way to "predict" where price might go, and maybe stop if it does go in a certain direction. Not only that, it is obvious the trading levels have been exceptionally during the higher part of this run up, with the highest levels coinciding with the highest prices. This too, is an indication the MMs are most active at the highs than anywhere else, and that means they are selling, closing longs and opening shorts.

You see, anyone can make any chart say anything. Your chart, with a single line suggests if price moves higher, to where it might move. My chart suggests that maybe the top is already in. And neither might turn out to be the case as time goes on.

So, if you are going to bother to make a post, please put a little effort into it so whatever it is you have to communicate is actually done so, clearly and unambiguously.

Thank you for a bit more effort on your part, please,
-tah
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  • #45,853
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:43pm Apr 7, 2013 12:43pm
AU:

Sonicers,

Here is my AU H4 chart, cleaner and to the point. This is what I think. What do you think?

-tah
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  • #45,854
  • Apr 7, 2013 1:15pm Apr 7, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting traderathome
EJ: Dany78, what, exactly is the purpose of your post? Without a clear purpose, without a clear message (right or wrong) your post is a waste of precious space on this thread. Students trying to learn how to trade the Sonic R. System have no time to wade thru posts with oblique meaning, or no meaning whatsoever. As for your lone picture, it would appear you are suggesting the price could go higher due to a possible TL (red) that you drew. Sure, anything is possible. Look at my picture, too. It shows a swing area off to the left. It shows the bisecting...
a picture is worth a thousand words!
  • #45,855
  • Edited 2:16pm Apr 7, 2013 1:17pm | Edited 2:16pm
AU (Continued)

In conjunction with the previous post on AU, here is what you could do. Wait for an appropriate Sonic R. long setup and enter it. If the price goes up without incident, fine. If the price is suddenly wacked and drops, here are some options:

1. Bail out of the long, taking whatever the loss is at the time.
2. Bail out of the long, taking whatever the loss is at the time, and if the setup has transitioned to a short setup then enter short.
3. Don't bail out of the long, but use each new low area achieved by the bull MMs to add to your long trade, building a long position just at they probably are doing.

Option #2 is probably the best, overall. Bull MMs can suddenly ochestrate bear PA in order to add longs at lower prices. Such moves most often achieve good distances in pips, enough so that you can recover the initial loss from the long entry and still make decent profit on the short entry. But the point here is that you do not really need to have a belief about if the MMs are bulls or bears. You just trade ".....what the market gives."

Option #3 is of great risk, and it requires you trade very small relative to your account size so that you can not only add multiple positions as the price moves against the initial trade, but also so that you do not come even close to having a margin problem as all the positions temporarily incur increasing losses. The great risk is, obviously, the MMs may have switched from bulls seeking lower prices to add longs, to being genuine bears starting a genine sellof.
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  • #45,856
  • Edited 2:14pm Apr 7, 2013 1:24pm | Edited 2:14pm
Quoting dany78
a picture is worth a thousand words!
dany78

Not if it is presumptuous and contrary to other facts in evidence, which are ignored and absent in the picture!

Please be more responsible in posting. It is perfectly ok to post a personal viewpoint. That stimulates thinking in others, which is a good thing. But just posting a picture without any comment whatsoever is flagrantly lazy on the part of the poster, and frankly it has the appearance of the poster not even believing enough in whatever the oblique message is to risk actually making a statement!

Like, "Hey, so it never did go up. Did I ever say it would?"

Personally, I will go on record both with picture and words as saying there is clear evidence the MMs maybe soon converting to all-out bears. It is only a question of how much they will afford to continue the pumps in order to encourage the longs they need to provide the liquidity they need to close their own longs and open their shorts. And that is something we can never know.

Please dany78, have enough confiction and enough consideration of others, to make your posts more worthy. Do you believe in TLs? Do you believe in the TL you drew? Why? If you can, make your posts an instructive and therefore complimentary part of this thread, which is a manual. We try to help others learn. We don't just post for personal glory, or to waste space and cause grief to others wading thru this extensive manual. So, if you believe in the TL you drew, state why.

I respectfully suggest you go back and edit the post to add some instructive, or at least some additional explanatory remarks that might help others less informed than you as to the value of TLs. Thank you.

-tah
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  • #45,857
  • Apr 7, 2013 1:53pm Apr 7, 2013 1:53pm
Tah,

I think your comments I really appreciate are more explicit than mine.
you have an experience that I did not interpret graphics and then I speak very little English.

Regards.
Dany
  • #45,858
  • Apr 7, 2013 7:07pm Apr 7, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting traderathome
AU Long Trade: Added long trade #5, still a Scout and based on high volume on M1 at the latest attained lows that the MMs pushed the price down to in order to add better priced longs themselves. The mental SL is removed from the picture. I am simply building a long position right along with the MMs, as they push the price lower. {image} {image}
AU Long Trade:

Added long trade #6, another Scout based on premise MMs remain bulls and continue to move prices lower and add longs themselves. Higher trading is occurring at the lows.
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  • #45,859
  • Apr 7, 2013 7:18pm Apr 7, 2013 7:18pm
- 120 years old ... ... much older then me ... puh

my respect to all the pits - jessie or good old richard - would never say its mine

add a long- and i know i could lose - but i riks a little bit


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Inserted Video


enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #45,860
  • Apr 7, 2013 7:44pm Apr 7, 2013 7:44pm
Quoting traderathome
AJ Short Trade: Added to this short trade, a Scout. {image}
AJ Short Trade:

Added to this short trade, a Scout based on high volumes at new highs.
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