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  • #783,781
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:04am Apr 6, 2013 10:04am
Quoting 5percent
for me, its quite clear cut because of jpy's boj's thingy that spur the momentum and breakout we seen on gbp/jpy and eur/jpy or all yen pairs across board that, took out jpy which was leading earlier this week to the weakness as most pairs rally more than 500-700 pips. Since that, gbpusd and eurusd has receive some sort of relieve from that downtrend pressure and gain some bullish momentum, and gradually spike up with their yen cross peers, after some not so ideal us's data, and trend has been in that favor after the yen cross pairs. If we look...
I kinda agree 5P. I was directing that question to Tom as he doesn't like people quoting his post for whatever reasons so I didn't

Could be trailling stop triggered could be other reasons I will never know for sure. As when Draghi talked PA dropped to 1.27xx then spurred it up then people wondering what was going on. No doubt all this movement pretty much related to BOJ just impossible to know for sure.

Hope you took advantage of the Yen as this opportunity doesn't come everyday.
  • #783,782
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:28am Apr 6, 2013 10:28am
so quiet...

I thought we are here to do this?
Quoting attila
Brokers closed, so we argue. Keeps the line moving..

  • #783,783
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:30am Apr 6, 2013 10:30am
Good Day to All,

Daddy Bears EWP in the EJ Institute is right on this morning!

It's worth a look for you eur traders................IMO

I came up with the same scenario's as he was posting his......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #783,784
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:40am Apr 6, 2013 10:40am
Sometime I was right and often time I was wrong but one thing I can gurantee is, there's no way for me to know for sure with 10/10 accuracy in Forex. That's all Forest has to say about that.

PS. Forest don't shout by quoting his own post with "You see, I told you so" in order to impress everyone
  • #783,785
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:44am Apr 6, 2013 10:44am
simply 100% accuracy doesn't exist in this world.

.ps
no, I meant those to further emphasize your calls, thoughts etc
not mine
  • #783,786
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:49am Apr 6, 2013 10:49am
Quoting forexalien
Good Day to All, Daddy Bears EWP in the EJ Institute is right on this morning! It's worth a look for you eur traders................IMO I came up with the same scenario's as he was posting his......

EU 129.224 currently
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #783,787
  • Apr 6, 2013 10:52am Apr 6, 2013 10:52am
I know, if I wanted to shout probably my post count would be somewhere around 10K posts by now right from Oct 2012.

I will shout if my name is FX_Ken or Ken_Forex but I am neither
  • #783,788
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:54am Apr 6, 2013 11:54am
Just had a look at the "planetary cycles trading" thread and I now have the strong urge to watch another episode of "Penn & Teller's Bullshit". What a load of nonsense...how can anyone in his right mind base his trades on astrology???

For anyone with at least a tiny amount of astronomy knowledge it's comical at best. You read stuff there like "Pluto has changed direction, ergo I think it's time to go short". First of all, Pluto NEVER changes direction, and secondly, it's not a planet. The entire thread is littered with pseudo-science. No wonder some people think forex is a scam...

It's like me telling people "sell your 250 room luxury hotel now, Jupiter is on the opposite side form Saturn". People would never give me another single job
  • #783,789
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:58am Apr 6, 2013 11:58am
Quoting 4exNinja
Just had a look at the "planetary cycles trading" thread and I now have the strong urge to watch another episode of "Penn & Teller's Bullshit". What a load of nonsense...how can anyone in his right mind base his trades on astrology??? For anyone with at least a tiny amount of astronomy knowledge it's comical at best. You read stuff there like "Pluto has changed direction, ergo I think it's time to go short". First of all, Pluto NEVER changes direction, and secondly, it's not a planet. The entire thread is littered with pseudo-science. No wonder...
it has some merit you need to research more. Especially gann.
  • #783,790
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:01pm Apr 6, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting sidhujag
it has some merit you need to research more. Especially gann.
If you look into astrology you realise that it really doesn't hold up to evidence...there's tons of debunking articles that make that very clear. If you ask 10 different astrologers, you will get 10 different opinions and projections.

Here's a video that makes it pretty clear: LINK
  • #783,791
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:03pm Apr 6, 2013 12:03pm

naah, shouldn't start doing that.. if intending to give some food for thoughts, then please do so. keeps the brain healthy
tbh, I, myself, have had 92.80 from several weeks ago on my chart. you got 92.70, so I figured, "hey, that just adds another verification to my plan."

thinking ecb is in deep shit now...
  • #783,792
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:07pm Apr 6, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting 4exNinja
If you look into astrology you realise that it really doesn't hold up to evidence...there's tons of debunking articles that make that very clear. If you ask 10 different astrologers, you will get 10 different opinions and projections. Here's a video that makes it pretty clear: LINK
Hehe funny thing is, same thing could be said about technical analysis, plenty of academic papers refuting it and each different person sees different technicals on same chart.

Personally find planetary - nonsense, but logically, putting emotions aside, technicals is as much of a nonsense as planetary analysis.
  • #783,793
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:10pm Apr 6, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting Nerys13
Hehe funny thing is, same thing could be said about technical analysis, plenty of academic papers refuting it and each different person sees different technicals on same chart. Personally find planetary - nonsense, but logically, putting emotions aside, technicals is as much of a nonsense as planetary analysis.
Not really imo. A lot of technical analysis is at least base on price action...as in, it's connected to what price does. Astrology on the other hand has ZERO influence on how price moves, especially if your astrological "clues" are completely arbitrary.

To prove this point, pick any astrological signal you want. For example, if you believe a full moon causes EURUSD to go short...go back in time and test that for a few years. You'll see the correlation isn't significant at all.

On the other hand, if you trade based on S/R levels, and price has bounced off 1.23 five times after dropping down...well, you can actually use this knowledge to successfully trade.
  • #783,794
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:11pm Apr 6, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting 4exNinja
If you look into astrology you realise that it really doesn't hold up to evidence...there's tons of debunking articles that make that very clear. If you ask 10 different astrologers, you will get 10 different opinions and projections. Here's a video that makes it pretty clear: LINK
never say never there, mate
we can also ask 10 different traders and get the same various opinions. if you're a fan of baseball, they've got this numerous advance metrics, that they even can't agree on which ones are best to be applied. and there's also this thing, kinda like fundies versus technicals here, traditional vs sabermetrics...
  • #783,795
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:13pm Apr 6, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I really don't know how accurate that is. I find bloomberg on sunday afternoons is the closest to the actual price. If it is, I'm kinda pissed I closed my short for +15 lol I'm looking at it and GBPUSD is down over 100, USDJPY is up by 50, EURJPY down 100.....I don't feel comfortable in believing that
Sometimes the gap is in your favor and sometimes it isn't. It's in my favor so far this weekend but just wait a while and one weekend it'll cause me hefty losses to even it out.
  • #783,796
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:13pm Apr 6, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting ec_creep
never say never there, mate we can also ask 10 different traders and get the same various opinions. if you're a fan of baseball, they've got this numerous advance metrics, that they even can't agree on which ones are best to be applied. and there's also this thing, kinda like fundies versus technicals here, traditional vs sabermetrics...
True...but like I said, at least technical traders and baseball fans base their predictions on things that are actually linked to the subject matter on hand (price or baseball results). When it comes to astrology, there is no connection. Jupiter doesn't give a rat's ass about how GU moves
  • #783,797
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:15pm Apr 6, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting 4exNinja
Not really imo. A lot of technical analysis is at least base on price action...as in, it's connected to what price does. Astrology on the other hand has ZERO influence on how price moves, especially if your astrological "clues" are completely arbitrary. To prove this point, pick any astrological signal you want. For example, if you believe a full moon causes EURUSD to go short...go back in time and test that for a few years. You'll see the correlation isn't significant at all. On the other hand, if you trade based on S/R levels, and price has...
Technicals is a lagging indicator, it doesn't give you any advantageous information. S/R are arbitrary just like planetary stuff, and back testing technicals always proves market efficiency in a sense that they're useless.

Given that this is a retail forex trading forum obviously everybody here does not share this view, otherwise we'd not be here, but the point I am trying to put across is that smart money thinks of us, the same way that you think of people who use planetary. I think it's a funny situation, don;'t you
  • #783,798
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:18pm Apr 6, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Nerys13
Technicals is a lagging indicator, it doesn't give you any advantageous information. S/R are arbitrary just like planetary stuff, and back testing technicals always proves market efficiency in a sense that they're useless. Given that this is a retail forex trading forum obviously everybody here does not share this view, otherwise we'd not be here, but the point I am trying to put across is that smart money thinks of us, the same way that you think of people who use planetary. I think it's a funny situation, don;'t you
Then why are you here? You have the same shallow uninformed idea of what "technical analysis" entails that many other academics have. They backtest some stochastics bullshit and think they can invalidate what others are doing because they have no understanding of the mechanics of the auction market.
  • #783,799
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:19pm Apr 6, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Kanzler
Then why are you here? You have the same shallow uninformed idea of what "technical analysis" entails that many other academics have. They backtest some stochastics bullshit and think they can invalidate what others are doing because they have no understanding of the mechanics of the auction market.
I don't think you actually read my comment before you answered it, do read it, do.
  • #783,800
  • Apr 6, 2013 12:24pm Apr 6, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting Kanzler
Then why are you here? You have the same shallow uninformed idea of what "technical analysis" entails that many other academics have. They backtest some stochastics bullshit and think they can invalidate what others are doing because they have no understanding of the mechanics of the auction market.
No analysis is 100% correct because you are always dealing with incomplete information...but at least technical analysis is actually linked to price action. And of course historic data can be used to predict the future. It's not always accurate, because circumstances change, but it increases the probability of success.

However, if your "analysis" is based on something that's not linked to the desired outcome at all (like is the case with astrology), you aren't actually increasing your chances of success. It's the old "correlation doesn't equal causation" thing.

For example, if thee's a major support level at 1.23 for which you have strong historic evidence, chances are price will at least stall and maybe even reverse again. If you pick an ARBITRARY signal that has no relation to how traders act (like claiming Pluto changes direction...which in itself is scientifically wrong), then like I said, you aren't increasing the probability of a successful prediction.

For astrology to have an impact, a critical mass of traders would have to base their trades on it...which simply isn't the case. Those who really move the markets don't just wake up one morning and say "ok listen up guys, we have a full moon tomorrow...everyone, start selling JPY".
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