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  • #2,161
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:07am Apr 5, 2013 11:07am
Quoting TantumVerum
I don't know if you can do it everyday, because on any given day we don't have all of the information to do it. At least I don't pay for a data feed that will give me more than what you can utilize with a broker who provides IFR. I would imagine you get more info for the premium data services, but I believe it's still rumor. :
Very nice thinking! I think there is a big possibility to develope at least additions to the trading style talked about in this thread.

I have been testing one of these newsfeeds, and I realized that they reveal options levels. I don't know, if those are rumours or not, but they reveal those.

Todays option expiries 1000am NY were EUR/USD 1,2950 and 1,3000.

For EURGBP there was 0,8550.

Also read this http://www.forextraders.com/forex-st...x-trading.html about the subject.
  • #2,162
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:15am Apr 5, 2013 11:15am
Quoting TantumVerum
I have thought about this myself. Take today for example. I don't know what orders actually stopped the news trade, but this is what my thought process was as price unfolded: 1) The option at 1.3000 possibly caused price to stop where it did and turn. There was hesitation at 1.29995 on my feed on the initial push up, which gave me a possible clue. 2) Once price pushed higher and stopped (1.3028) could those have been a secondary level of stops to protect the option? It had to have been vanilla and maybe it was sizable. They could have possibly used...
These are interesting things to ponder. I spend lots of time analyzing past charts attempting to find some type of pattern with respect to which way NY takes price when London closes. Still looking, haven't found anything conclusive yet. It would be nice to be able to say something like; if London closes above/below its open, xx% of the time NY will take price up/down. If it is there you could build a trade around it.
  • #2,163
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:21am Apr 5, 2013 11:21am
Quoting tdforex
Very nice thinking! I think there is a big possibility to develope at least additions to the trading style talked about in this thread. I have been testing one of these newsfeeds, and I realized that they reveal options levels. I don't know, if those are rumours or not, but they reveal those. Todays option expiries 1000am NY were EUR/USD 1,2950 and 1,3000. For EURGBP there was 0,8550. Also read this http://www.forextraders.com/forex-st...x-trading.html about the subject.
Options are important. They can give you valuable target information. We have discussed it before in the thread but not in too much detail. As I said I don't do options but I do keep aware of the ones IFR report. They are useful as additional information to have in your arsenal.
  • #2,164
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:28am Apr 5, 2013 11:28am
Quoting tdforex
Very nice thinking! I think there is a big possibility to develope at least additions to the trading style talked about in this thread. I have been testing one of these newsfeeds, and I realized that they reveal options levels. I don't know, if those are rumours or not, but they reveal those. Todays option expiries 1000am NY were EUR/USD 1,2950 and 1,3000. For EURGBP there was 0,8550. Also read this http://www.forextraders.com/forex-st...x-trading.html...
You can get the option data from sources like OANDA News, which has an IFR Markets feed if you use them. They will sometimes list sizable vanilla's and give a few rumors, but not the information I want to bank anything concrete on. Usually everyday there is some vanilla's on the option calendar they list.

As an example there was a large vanilla at 1.2800 yesterday at 1 billion, and the same level on Wednesday at 500 mil. 2 days 500 mil and 1 bil, while not uncommon it's not everyday you get a 1 billion vanilla that I see on the news feed anyways. Price only fell below that level for short time early yesterday. Conicidence?
  • #2,165
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:30am Apr 5, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Seneca pilot
GU sucks, I rarely trade it any more. All the other pairs EU, EJ, GJ, and UJ paid out on the NFP trade today.
i rarely trade g/u too, especially with e/u paying off big time lately but i think common knowledge is with news release they normally go in tandem. Someone just pointed out about having an idea where us market will go after uk shuts, i normally only trade oil at this time but its getting back to SP and his opening range breakout, it can be traded just off this method. and it can be traded the way i trade which is more aggressive but i am normally done trading by then.Anyway guys have a good weekend
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #2,166
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:34am Apr 5, 2013 11:34am
Also, again as an example and not saying I will play this on a Friday afternoon, but you now have a LC at about 1.3026. Depending on who is active and have orders in place this might come down to 1.3000 and go back up above to hit 1.3045-1.3050. I think it is more likely to bounce or stay between LC and 3000 where orders were placed as a result of the earlier play.

Just my 2 cents and something to watch if you are bored...
  • #2,167
  • Edited 2:08pm Apr 5, 2013 1:09pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
It would be nice to be able to say something like; if London closes above/below its open, xx% of the time NY will take price up/down. If it is there you could build a trade around it.
Still learning this chart analysis business but from a cursory inspection of LC on the Hr chart from this years EU it appear 'NY sesh ADR' is a good deal lower than standard 24hr ADR so to get a decent RR on potentially small moves you would have to be using a small stop of 5 or 10 pips. This doesn't allow much room for price to breathe so it may be a struggle to get a winning afternoon method SP style.

Funnily enough GU actually looks to have a greater afternoon range (cursory look) than EU so maybe it's good for something afterall? I know this isn't supposed to be simple this trading business but to me, an amateur, it looks like at LC on GU price will more often than not do one of 2 things - continue strongly in the same direction of the morning or reverse strongly. Perhaps having a method of choosing either of those options and backing it could prove fruitful. As said there doesn't appear to be the potential for a big move most afternoons so there is little chance of being able to enter then be stopped and reverse because that would lead to losses overwhelming modest profits.

EDIT - AU and UJ are bigger movers in the afternoon being in more of a 'pre-market' state than other pairs at that time.

Last week was fairly quiet on UJ range-wise but the week before (18th-22nd) if you had gone long at LC everyday you would have had:

Mon - drawdown 0pips, upside 60pips (TP)
Tues - drawdown 13pips, upside 60pips (TP)
Wed - drawdown 14pips, upside 60pips (TP)
Thurs - drawdown SL hit at 20pips
Fri - drawdown SL hit at 20pips

So buying LC for the week on UJ resulted in 180-40 = 140pips profit. That's using 3:1 RR and holding into next day if necessary until TP hit. Obviously I've scrolled back 2weeks to select UJ on a busy week to get those results but an interesting starting point.
  • #2,168
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:38pm Apr 5, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting stevexyg
Still learning this chart analysis business but from a cursory inspection of LC on the Hr chart from this years EU it appear 'NY sesh ADR' is a good deal lower than standard 24hr ADR so to get a decent RR on potentially small moves you would have to be using a small stop of 5 or 10 pips. This doesn't allow much room for price to breathe so it may be a struggle to get a winning afternoon method SP style. Funnily enough GU actually looks to have a greater afternoon range (cursory look) than EU so maybe it's good for something afterall? I know this...
It would scare the poop out of me to just go long or short at the opening of a bar.

The NY play for me is GJ. I trade the open on it a lot. I haven't spoken of that trade here so I won't really elaborate except to say that most people play opening ranges wrong and there are really good ways to do it. A fifteen minute chart and some good study will point to some reliable patterns. Please forgive me but I do these differently than I have ever seen here or anywhere so I am not going to go into detail. I will say that I do not simply take the break of the 08:00 London bar. I have a different take.
  • #2,169
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:52pm Apr 5, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
It would scare the poop out of me to just go long or short at the opening of a bar.
Are you man or mouse? Come on, man up.
  • #2,170
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:53pm Apr 5, 2013 2:53pm
Quoting tdforex
Very nice thinking! I think there is a big possibility to develope at least additions to the trading style talked about in this thread. I have been testing one of these newsfeeds, and I realized that they reveal options levels. I don't know, if those are rumours or not, but they reveal those. Todays option expiries 1000am NY were EUR/USD 1,2950 and 1,3000. For EURGBP there was 0,8550. Also read this http://www.forextraders.com/forex-st...x-trading.html about the subject.
You can get the option levels from IFR for free if you have Oanda for your test or regular account. My test account is Oanda so I get them each day to stay aware.

The direction I was really going was this:

Today for example the fight was to keep price at the 1.30 level until ten. Now the people trying to get it down there had to be selling hard to keep the lid on the price. Once that fight was over they had to buy those deals back. The people down below trying to push it above the price had a lot of longs and if price wanted to go down naturally they would have had to sell out of their deals accelerating price down. The question to me is how can we determine the direction that price really wants to go after the war. We can be buyers if we have a good reason to believe that the selling force is artificial and designed to keep the price down just until expiry. We will have the added help of knowing that those defenders from above will have to buy their shorts back and that will speed up the price rise. Without reliable volume information it is very difficult to distinguish between selling and buying. In NYSE we have the tick and trin and they give tons of information but in forex we have a price screen and nothing more. I believe though that there has to be some sort of tip off to the real direction that price will want to go after this option cut battle is over.

Now knock out options like DNT and DDNT are simpler. We know that the object of the option seller/buyer is to defend/attack the price and that they will have stops only one tick above/below the no touch. It becomes easy to game that because we can see when price approaches once it is rejected x pips. On the second attempt it gets rejected less. On the third attempt when price is close and the expiry is very near we can join in with the attack and know that all the defense stops are going to trigger just past the level. We can then exit in the stop spike. These exotics are fewer in number though and often are far enough away from price that they never come into play. Vanilla options, though are in play almost every day and if they are at least 500 mil or bigger they will be defended enough to make a play somewhat viable. The only thing is to figure out the way price actually wants to go.
  • #2,171
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:54pm Apr 5, 2013 2:54pm
Quoting stevexyg
Are you man or mouse? Come on, man up.
I am all mouse. 6'3" 245 pounds of mouse.
  • #2,172
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:58pm Apr 5, 2013 2:58pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
I am all mouse. 6'3" 245 pounds of mouse.
holy sh#t! I thought I was tall at 6ft. I'm guessing that's 111kilos of flab not muscle.
  • #2,173
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:59pm Apr 5, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting stevexyg
holy sh#t! I thought I was tall at 6ft. I'm guessing that's 111kilos of flab not muscle.
Soft pliable muscle.
  • #2,174
  • Apr 5, 2013 3:02pm Apr 5, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Soft pliable muscle.
OK OK don't get too descriptive you might get people asking for pictures.
  • #2,175
  • Apr 5, 2013 3:12pm Apr 5, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
You can get the option levels from IFR for free if you have Oanda for your test or regular account. My test account is Oanda so I get them each day to stay aware. The direction I was really going was this: Today for example the fight was to keep price at the 1.30 level until ten. Now the people trying to get it down there had to be selling hard to keep the lid on the price. Once that fight was over they had to buy those deals back. The people down below trying to push it above the price had a lot of longs and if price wanted to go down naturally...
Wouldn't you assume though that the defensive positions would not just be stop orders, but market orders as well? So, when the expiry is completed you would think you would have less selling pressure where those defensive positions took place. Those defensive positions are temporary and any stop orders would be pulled and there is no reason to go to market. Opens the "way" or path to the next intraday level, which in today's case was nearly hit, but if it were any other day but NFP Friday I venture to guess it would have hit. Does that make sense, or do you see the orders differently?

Add/Edit: I viewed it as price really wanted to go up? Maybe we aren't looking at the same thing, or you are looking at it in a different context?
  • #2,176
  • Edited 3:51pm Apr 5, 2013 3:27pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting TantumVerum
Wouldn't you assume though that the defensive positions would not just be stop orders, but market orders as well? So, when the expiry is completed you would think you would have less selling pressure where those defensive positions took place. Those defensive positions are temporary and any stop orders would be pulled and there is no reason to go to market. Opens the "way" or path to the next intraday level, which in today's case was nearly hit, but if it were any other day but NFP Friday I venture to guess it would have hit. Does that make sense,...
It was more of a generality than about today. Here is my thinking. Lets assume today the price wanted to go up (obviously it did). The defenders from above had to sell hard to keep price down to the 1.30 level. They built up a big book of shorts. At 10:00 they now were short in a long biased market. Now they have to buy back all the shorts they accumulated so as not to lose too much money. This is, in my view why we saw such a strong fifteen minute bar at 10:00. Those defenders had to bail out of their shorts and this of course has to be done with market orders causing price to rise eating up all the liquidity along the way. Of course the attackers from below were already long and were not about to sell until price went against them, assuming they knew price was going to go up. If we had some way to know this natural sentiment bias we could join in and help the winning side before the cut.
  • #2,177
  • Edited 5:23pm Apr 5, 2013 4:00pm | Edited 5:23pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
It was more of a generality than about today. Here is my thinking. Lets assume today the price wanted to go up (obviously it did). The defenders from above had to sell hard to keep price down to the 1.30 level. They built up a big book of shorts. At 10:00 they now were short in a long biased market. Now they have to buy back all the shorts they accumulated so as not to lose too much money. This is, in my view why we saw such a strong fifteen minute bar at 10:00. Those defenders had to bail out of their shorts and this if course has to be done with...
Yes, I was using today just as an example and it appears we view the orders the same way. I thought that you may be referring to how one may be able to see the move earlier, which you are, but I haven't thought about it that way. I feel much better about the one's with the money battling it out and then jumping on once the battle is over/won, or manage my position.

I actually got into the trade right at the beginning of the 15m bar, but closed and re-entered on the pullback, which was not needed. It was my rules though and after it was all said and done only cost me about 3 or 4 pips profit.

Quoting Seneca pilot
If we had some way to know this natural sentiment bias we could join in and help the winning side before the cut.
What does it matter who wins, unless you are invested in the option? Once it's played out you can earn your pips accordingly. If you are in a trade you could manage accordingly as well. This is the part I may be confused on or missing your point. My narrow mind might be inhibiting my ability to see clearly...
  • #2,178
  • Apr 5, 2013 5:12pm Apr 5, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting TantumVerum
Yes, I was using today just as an example and it appears we view the orders the same way. I thought that you may be referring to how one may be able to see the move earlier, which you are, but I haven't thought about it that way. I feel much better about the one's with the money battling it out and then jumping on once the battle is over/won, or manage my position. I actually got into the trade right at the beginning of the 15m bar, but closed and re-entered on the pullback, which was not needed. It was my rules though and after it was all said...
Poor choice of words. I don't care who wins either. I want to try to find a way to figure out which way the market wants to go after the battle is over. If we knew who had to liquidate their open positions in a hurry we could have a high probability trade using their exits to move our trade into profit.
  • #2,179
  • Apr 6, 2013 1:11pm Apr 6, 2013 1:11pm
Bored, it's cloudy and rainy here today, so like a tool guess what I am doing on a Saturday? Yes looking at charts...

The weekly close before the Cyprus debacle (3/15): 1.3073(7)
The opening on Sunday after Cyprus news: 1.2902(5)

Average price of the two: 1.2988(1)

Weekly Close on 3/22: 1.2985(6)

Weekly Close on 4/5: 1.2985(4)


For those that follow fundamentals regarding the bigger picture, curious as to what you think?

I follow the bigger picture since it interests me. Looks as though we are in the middle of a battle in price at the top of the food chain. If the news that has been coming out recently on both sides (euro and dollar) seems confusing with what price did I think a conclusion can be made that the CB's, Bernanke & Draghi are in a power struggle right now.

I don't claim to be an expert in this area, but I find it really interesting...
  • #2,180
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:46pm Apr 7, 2013 4:46pm
Hey Tantum

What time do you use for the weekly open?
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