Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

Yes ten o'clock cut will probably start the move one way or the other. We have a long way to go to the upside to get to any stops. On the down side they should be stacked up just below 80-75

If the first IB is broken up I will pull all my orders and end my week.

Out. I just don't see the strength to go up. If it does it looks like it would be a slow grind.

Wow this breaks a streak of winner NFP trades at nine. Is a no trade considered a loser?

Last week high at 475. If any of you did go long that would be a good target.

Targeting, but looks as though will hit my BE and will be out...

You know Seneca these subtle things are the ones that prove you are for real.
So, hard to find people like you in this business (specially on the web).
A fake would never give an F about the others when he is not in a trade...
But you, are still trying to help .
Kudos !

Have a great week end , and of course that is for all of you guys here.
(Yeah, including 007 )

Tantum I have a question.

I am not an options guy I understand DNT and DDNT and I know with vanilla the goal is usually to have price as close as possible to the strike so they go out basically worthless. My question is, What happens to all those positions when the battle is over? It seems if we knew which way to play the options battle every day at ten and knew the expiry day for the exotics we could have a nice, high probability trade.

Will get my thoughts on this in a bit, I have to manage this bugger trade for awhile....

Something's gonna happen soon.

Here I show how to trade the wedge.

Its failing, I hope the price doesn't put a hole in my boat.

rdsl, What is a wedge here, now? Searched the thread already...

I am just joking about the pattern. It is just a coiling of price. It looks like right now it is potentially having a fake breakout.

EDIT: I don't trade these. I just like to watch them play out.

EDIT: Rebound

NFP was a winner after all. I let my bias get in the way. The third inside bar went 4/1 so I hope some of you didn't bother to listen to me. Its ten for ten now. Gotta get that bias out of my head, it still creeps in now and then.

SP, thanks for putting me onto NFP last month. i have actually been trading this a long time without realising what was happening, i set triggers and wait without knowing what is happening that day. and it works big time for me.. method was inside bars 15 min on e/u and g/u, i had already been longing e/u from uk open. But today i actually hunted the NFP lol. oil did well but thats a different story but i almost got busted with the oil spike, so it had to be corrected.Anyway less of what i do and thanks again, i do still learn things

Just remembered, before anyone points out one of the inside bars on g/u (i think) it failed. it did fail i got busted but it was soon corrected positive, be good

I have thought about this myself. Take today for example. I don't know what orders actually stopped the news trade, but this is what my thought process was as price unfolded:

1) The option at 1.3000 possibly caused price to stop where it did and turn. There was hesitation at 1.29995 on my feed on the initial push up, which gave me a possible clue.
2) Once price pushed higher and stopped (1.3028) could those have been a secondary level of stops to protect the option? It had to have been vanilla and maybe it was sizable. They could have possibly used this area as a secondary defense to push price back down because there were (potentially) other orders due to a previous week level right there. Complete speculation...
3) There was no follow through on the news trade and settled below 1.3000 the option. It then continued to knock on the door with higher lows. It's still speculation if any of this was related to the option at this point, but I would think if you see the path it's taking the probabilities are becoming more and more in our favor.
4) That is why I said it appears the 10:00 ET expiry time will most likely tell the tale, which it has and the follow through of the news trade can continue, although not as clean.

Side Note: There was also a daily pivot (NY 00:00 based 1.3002) for anyone who uses them. Sometimes I will look at them if we are outside of typical trading levels (or very large gap between them) only to see if price does react. I don't put a lot of weight in them, but I look for some guidance where there is none, if you know what I mean.

That was my thought process first of all, if correct or not...

To answer your question the best I can:

I don't know if you can do it everyday, because on any given day we don't have all of the information to do it. At least I don't pay for a data feed that will give me more than what you can utilize with a broker who provides IFR. I would imagine you get more info for the premium data services, but I believe it's still rumor.

So, I do note the options in play and just like any other level I watch how price is reacting around those levels and act accordingly as I did today.

Is it possible the entity selling to protect their option position, then right after the expiry, liquidate to those willing buyers who are moving the market up. If you have to protect an option you know the price is gonna go against you and when it's 10:00 you will have willing buyers to liquidate your sell orders to. If how I viewed the trade is correct it is high probability in my opinion, it's just you have to decipher what price is doing as it unfolds, unless you have more information in advance.

The way I see it, the difference between the important daily levels that you/we are confident in are there for us to see right away. An option level has to develop price around it before you know how important it is (without proper info). I am currently wired to trade this way even at the other levels, right or wrong. With that said, once price has unfolded you now have an important level and when price comes back to it maybe you can trade it similarly for the short term, especially if you get a LC at that level a couple hours later it could give you some pips with 2 levels for an afternoon NY session trade? I would think it would be extremely difficult to backtest, if at all.

I would like to develop something more concrete around them myself...

GU sucks, I rarely trade it any more. All the other pairs EU, EJ, GJ, and UJ paid out on the NFP trade today.