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Sonic R. System

  • #45,821
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:18am Apr 5, 2013 9:18am
Quoting traderathome
Hope this helps...... {image}
Hi Tah,

Thanks for the clarification. I was having the same problem as fex. I can't post my chart as I am on ipad. Correct me if I am wrong meaning to say with the high volume topping the PA. We could possibly short from there if we use the same analysis like building longs on the way as what you mentioned right? But of course we won't know when the low will come but possibly short is also viable? Just wanna know if the system works that way also.

Thanks.

Rgds
  • #45,822
  • Edited 9:29am Apr 5, 2013 9:18am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting fex
Yes, I understand, but the volume at highs is much higher than in the low now... Thanks
Who says it can't be higher? Or lower? Does there have to be a correlation? No. If the MMs decide they don't want to pay the current price any longer for longs, their option is to drive the price down and add more longs at the lower prices they achieve. Don't complicate it! They might even have added some shorts at those highs in order to make even more money as they drove the price back down. Are the MMs bulls or are they bears? You can't decide just by looking at one or two spots of action. I don't. I have been posting on AU since yesterday. Maybe before just jumping in and looking at a current post and a current picture and asking questions, everyone should take the time to study up on the situation first. But, if you want to compare volumes, then just realize that once the MMs have the price down, they can keep it down until next week if they like, and meanwhile go to town adding to their long positions!
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  • #45,823
  • Edited 10:05am Apr 5, 2013 9:37am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting Derextreme
Hi Tah, Thanks for the clarification. I was having the same problem as fex. I can't post my chart as I am on ipad. Correct me if I am wrong meaning to say with the high volume topping the PA. We could possibly short from there if we use the same analysis like building longs on the way as what you mentioned right? But of course we won't know when the low will come but possibly short is also viable? Just wanna know if the system works that way also. Thanks. Rgds
Ok, MMs Are Bulls or Bears, So what! How Do We Trade This?

Well, and I have already posted on this numerous times so far this week, but here is a wrap. I feel there are three ways to go. Let us assume MMs are bulls. Ok, so having figured that out (hopefully correctly) we look for a Sonic R. long setup and enter when it comes. If price simply goes up, fine. But what if price goes down? Remember, we think the MMs are still bulls.....

1. Bail out of long, take some loss, and wait for another long setup which presumably will next happen at lower prices (immediate loss, but that is the limit of the risk).
2. Bail out of long and if the setup is now actually showing as a short, enter short, which will have you taking advantage of the bull MMs price drive down to capture lower priced longs (immediate loss since you closed the long at a loss, but now are trading short with the current MM action).
3. Just keep adding to the long trade at lower prices periodically, building a long position just as the MMs are presumably doing (very high risk because every add is continuing to lose money for the time being).

#1-close long, and #2-close long and reverse (go short) are the recommeneded ways to trade. This is what Master Sonicdeejay means by "Trade what you see....." and "Trade what the market gives....." If you think on this some, these two choices do not even require you to have any idea what the MMs are! Just trade valid setups as they come, and be quick to react if things stop going your way. I like to have more assurance that I understand a little something about what is behind price action. I might be disadvantaging my trading thinking that way. Or, I might come upon ways to reliably know a little more, and maybe that is as close to the traders' HOLY GRAIL as will ever be possible.

Hope this explains it,
-tah
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  • #45,824
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:38am Apr 5, 2013 9:38am
Thank you very much, I'm more comfortable with the explanation of the graph, which gives meaning to several comments. Thanks.

I went with shorts when I saw the huge volume on high, now analyze to go long. Thanks. Its a great system, with great teachers.
Newbie trader
  • #45,825
  • Edited 12:14pm Apr 5, 2013 9:43am | Edited 12:14pm
Send a EJ Short scout...with lil possible topping out..

SL is just 30~45 pips away... so I am fully aware of how much I am risking..

Will close it before the mkt closes..


and mkt will decides the rest..and it is very high chance of getting it hit...

Sonic
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  • #45,826
  • Apr 5, 2013 10:51am Apr 5, 2013 10:51am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Send a EJ Short scout...with lil possible topping out.. SL is just 30~45 pips away... so I am fully aware of how much I am risking.. Will close it before the mkt closes.. and mkt will decides the rest..and it is very high chance of getting it hit... Sonic {image} {image}
master sonic i would like to ask you. Why r u still trade that scout when u know that the SL gonna be hit. i know it is top on that daily chart. and it is a very good time to counter the trend. however, the usd NFP turn out to be bad. and the price went up. and beside isn;t it one of your rule that never trade on friday?
Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #45,827
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:48am Apr 5, 2013 11:48am
hello
I found an indicator that automatically draws the old support and resistance
if this can help you .......

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  • #45,828
  • Apr 5, 2013 11:51am Apr 5, 2013 11:51am
Quoting dany78
hello I found an indicator that automatically draws the old support and resistance if this can help you ....... {image}


please,, post the indicator!
  • #45,829
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:07pm Apr 5, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting dany78
hello I found an indicator that automatically draws the old support and resistance if this can help you ....... {image}
yeah, and where is it? maybe you share it with us too .. or just tell the indi name..
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
  • #45,830
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:11pm Apr 5, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting loeil
yeah, and where is it? maybe you share it with us too .. or just tell the indi name..
maybe this one?
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SupDem.ex4   13 KB | 331 downloads
Greed causes poverty
  • #45,831
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:01pm Apr 5, 2013 1:01pm
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  • #45,832
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:05pm Apr 5, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting dany78
{image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
dany... attach the indicator, no the picture!!!!
  • #45,833
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:12pm Apr 5, 2013 1:12pm
I'm sorry for the delay, but I dined with the family.

good trades

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 FTC_Support_Resistance.ex4   8 KB | 1,167 downloads
  • #45,834
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:17pm Apr 5, 2013 1:17pm
[quote=dany78;6579403]I'm sorry for the delay, but I dined with the family. good trades {file}[/QUOT


tks...
  • #45,835
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:51pm Apr 5, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting traderathome
Ok, MMs Are Bulls or Bears, So what! How Do We Trade This? Well, and I have already posted on this numerous times so far this week, but here is a wrap. I feel there are three ways to go. Let us assume MMs are bulls. Ok, so having figured that out (hopefully correctly) we look for a Sonic R. long setup and enter when it comes. If price simply goes up, fine. But what if price goes down? Remember, we think the MMs are still bulls..... 1. Bail out of long, take some loss, and wait for another long setup which presumably will next happen at lower prices...
The way number 3. Is the way I love to trade and I'm truly grateful to Professor TAH to keep teaching all this. Absolutely greatest stuff I have read about forex trading

When I'm trading with stop losses, I begin to be affraid of the loss. It gives me more stress to trade the classic way and I make my SL always too tight.

And every post must have a picture, so here is my short position building going.
Once took the profits already at low before price got up and once it got up, I shorted again (H/S formation 4h bearish).
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I know the secret...
  • #45,836
  • Apr 5, 2013 3:16pm Apr 5, 2013 3:16pm
wake up at 3 am local time and find these still open trades in good profit. i'll close them all before the market close.

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Happy wekend to all masters and fellow sonicers
a citizen of earth
  • #45,837
  • Apr 6, 2013 4:24am Apr 6, 2013 4:24am
Quoting traderathome
Take note of the volume group previous to the current selloff volume. EJ attached, but same on all YEN pairs. Likely Pump & Dump. Yes, price might get hiked somewhat again, but at this point the MMs might have switched to being bears. Any hike now might be to add shorts. Too early to tell anything for sure, what with the way these pairs are manipulated. Just a different possibility to be aware of. {image}
I'd say the price got hiked somewhat on Yen pairs
Lets see how low it will come back...

Would you still consider MMs might be preparing for bearish move? I'm loading shorts at the moment.
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I know the secret...
  • #45,838
  • Apr 6, 2013 8:03am Apr 6, 2013 8:03am
Quoting JRissa
I'd say the price got hiked somewhat on Yen pairs Lets see how low it will come back... Would you still consider MMs might be preparing for bearish move? I'm loading shorts at the moment. {image}
Last BoJ decision killed the yen, analyst are aiming to 100 in UJ. In my opinion short term resistance could be 98-98.5 but I´m pretty sure the UJ will hit 100, the question is when will it do it.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #45,839
  • Edited 8:47pm Apr 6, 2013 6:26pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting dany78
hello I found an indicator that automatically draws the old support and resistance if this can help you ....... {image}
Quoting luisermers
please,, post the indicator!
Quoting loeil
yeah, and where is it? maybe you share it with us too .. or just tell the indi name..
Quoting well72
maybe this one?
Quoting luisermers
dany... attach the indicator, no the picture!!!!
Brain vs Indicators

What the hell is the matter with all of you Sonicers? Yet another indicator purporting to devine S&R? Have I not given you enough? Or is it that you are just too lazy to look into and use what you already have?

Folks, just compare the two pics. One purports to devine S&R. Mine is only showing the quarter level divisions between whole numbers. Can you not see the similarities? And that is not even adding the pivots I have given you, which are time zone shifted to assure you are using those pivots that most professionals use!

And having said all that, the real problem here is your never ending search for more indicators! Why? Are you tired of using your own brain? I will tell you a truth. You won't like it, but here it is. If you continue to search for and rely on indcators to "guide" you instead of putting in the work (and yes, failures) to develop your brain to trading, you will never succeed at this. And those indicators will continue to inhibit your ability to learn and grow independent of them. You'll be in the crapper, and you'll never get out of it!

The Sonic R. System is unchanged, will not change, and is elegantly simple. It is bad enough folks come here with a sack of garbage indicators they are too chicken shit to stop using. On top of that you have to look for more? Good luck! (Geez!) You are supposed to learn how to spot S&R levels that apply by looking at historic S&R levels, which you find by looking a the price chart, not by having some indicator lead you by your baby little hands to it!

Take the shit off your charts and start putting something of value into your heads!.....

......PA, S&R, Dragon, Trend Line and a bit of volume. The less you have on your charts the more you'll see! But, you will have to start learning to use your brain. Hope that isn't asking too much.

-tah
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  • #45,840
  • Edited Apr 7, 2013 2:37pm Apr 6, 2013 8:11pm | Edited Apr 7, 2013 2:37pm
Price Volume Analysis

Here is another lessson using price and volume to analyze if MMs are bulls or bears.

The M15 picture attached shows the MMs price drive up in conjunction with the multiple USD high impact releases on Friday. Were the releases responsible? Sometimes not. Quite frankly, many times the MMs already have their plans for price, no matter what news comes out. Anyway, two important clues about MMs are revealed here.

Firstly, Thursday the MMs tanked the price again, something they've been doing for a month. Now, the move down (red volume bar) did not attract a lot of trading. A lot of trading would imply there were a lot of folks willing on both sides, longs and shorts. In this case, the low activity really said that there were not a lot of willing shorters. So, the bull MMs that drove the price down to add more, and cheaper longs, came up light. And up the price did come. All this clearly indicated the MMs were bulls, and had only a partially successful drive down to add more longs. And that in itself was a huge clue the whole market is bullish,....few, if any shorters left!

Secondly, after the highs were attained Friday you can see how the volume dropped back low, right up until the previous S&R area (yellow) was obtained by the bull MMs that were doing it all over again, dropping the price to get back to lows to start buying again. At the S&R area, clearly the buying picked up (red, blue, green volume bars)!

So, there you have it. Do the MMs remain bulls, or are they bears?

-tah
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