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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,301
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:48pm Apr 4, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting zusch
Anyone know where the top is?
Maybe 101.50. I wouldn't look for a top though... better to just join the move on pullbacks.

Cheers
  • #33,302
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:05pm Apr 4, 2013 10:05pm
Wow. I need to look into trading this pair more often. Fibs work mighty well on this pair.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #33,303
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:08pm Apr 4, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting MackS10
Maybe 101.50. I wouldn't look for a top though... better to just join the move on pullbacks. Cheers
Interestingly enough, I also have 101.50 as the next target for USD/JPY. Below are monthly and weekly charts showing the significance of 101.50.

Remember, these PRICE levels are created by supply and demand during certain economic conditions. Supply and demand changes with each economic and political situation. What was once a PRICE level in a certain economic scenario may not be important or supported in a different economic situation.

Supply and demand will drive PRICE to those levels which are supported by the current economic and political conditions. Usually, these are levels identified in history but occasionally, each condition creates its own PRICE.

PRICE always respects PRICE levels previously defined as SUPPORT and RESISTANCE. Read that again with correct understanding.

Price ALWAYS respects price levels previously defined as support and resistance.

Just because PRICE slices through support and resistance doesn’t mean PRICE doesn’t respect that level. It DOES respect that PRICE – it just means that, at that point in time, it is not as important. The supply and demand conditions have changed such that the BUYERS and SELLERS are moving to different levels.

So, PRICE breaking through SUPPORT and RESISTANCE tells us as much as PRICE bouncing off SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

However. it is not as simple as price breaking through a level and going to the next PRICE level. There are many factors to consider.

How did PRICE break through the level? The most important and significant question is, Where did PRICE close? Did it close above or below the level? Was it just a spike through the level?

What was the market sentiment when PRICE broke through the level? Was the bar just an average range bar or was it a bigger range bar? What were the bars before it – average or bigger?

Where is the next PRICE level?

Learn more about Price Action @ Support Resistance (PASR): http://www.stratsforextrading.com/dokuwiki/doku.php (i need to give credit where credit is due)
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  • #33,304
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:30pm Apr 4, 2013 10:30pm
Quoting MackS10
Maybe 101.50. I wouldn't look for a top though... better to just join the move on pullbacks. Cheers
Agreed on the buying pullbacks. Difficulty is always determining how much price will actually pullback.

101.50 does stick out and 100Pips has that target as well so many eyes are prob looking there.

Quoting 100Pips
Just because PRICE slices through support and resistance doesn’t mean PRICE doesn’t respect that level. It DOES respect that PRICE – it just means that, at that point in time, it is not as important. The supply and demand conditions have changed such that the BUYERS and SELLERS are moving to different levels.

So, PRICE breaking through SUPPORT and RESISTANCE tells us as much as PRICE bouncing off SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

However. it is not as simple as price breaking through a level and going to the next PRICE level. There are many factors to consider.

How did PRICE break through the level? The most important and significant question is, Where did PRICE close? Did it close above or below the level? Was it just a spike through the level?

What was the market sentiment when PRICE broke through the level? Was the bar just an average range bar or was it a bigger range bar? What were the bars before it – average or bigger?
Really good stuff here.

Applying this to now I'm just watching 5min/hourly for closes under/above 97. Not really looking outrageously strong at the moment.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,305
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:03pm Apr 4, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting MackS10
Maybe 101.50. I wouldn't look for a top though... better to just join the move on pullbacks. Cheers
Two Pages ago..

Quoting Toranaga
I 'see' a short on W1 and even MN shows a end somewhere about 99-100.
Now i would add 104. Monthly.

At the upside..
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  • #33,306
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:09pm Apr 4, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Interestingly enough, I also have 101.50 as the next target for USD/JPY. Below are monthly and weekly charts showing the significance of 101.50. Remember, these PRICE levels are created by supply and demand during certain economic conditions. Supply and demand changes with each economic and political situation. What was once a PRICE level in a certain economic scenario may not be important or supported in a different economic situation. Supply and demand will drive PRICE to those levels which are supported by the current economic and political conditions....

Thanks. Great post.
Exactly thats about..
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  • #33,307
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:17pm Apr 4, 2013 11:17pm
Aaaand.. Despite being greedy..

Plug in the brain. After such a walk
as seen in M1 or H1 before, equal where, there has to be a retrace.


So if you arent a long long term trader, stop the silly wishful thinking and trade what you see.
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  • #33,308
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:21pm Apr 4, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting zusch
Agreed on the buying pullbacks. Difficulty is always determining how much price will actually pullback. 101.50 does stick out and 100Pips has that target as well so many eyes are prob looking there. Really good stuff here. Applying this to now I'm just watching 5min/hourly for closes under/above 97. Not really looking outrageously strong at the moment.
Yes, but definitely a resumption of the weekly uptrend
  • #33,309
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:20am Apr 5, 2013 1:20am
the 2013 top is in. i am calling it. theres just too many traders that are shorting the jpy. its a crowded trade. the news is already priced in, no further easing measures to be announced, so this will drift and then get sold off back to 92-93 mark
its just put on too many pips in such a short period

also usd/jpy - the USD side is also printing money at the same time and is struggling economically which is bad for this trade
  • #33,310
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:39am Apr 5, 2013 1:39am
Quoting Halba
the 2013 top is in. i am calling it. theres just too many traders that are shorting the jpy. its a crowded trade. the news is already priced in, no further easing measures to be announced, so this will drift and then get sold off back to 92-93 mark its just put on too many pips in such a short period also usd/jpy - the USD side is also printing money at the same time and is struggling economically which is bad for this trade
Halba,

Have you taken a look at Oanda's historical position ratios lately?

It is clear to see that retail LONGS are still nowhere close to where they were for the majority of 2012. This may be only for Oanda's clients but the concept is similar to "polling" during elections.

See, for the majority of 2012 there were roughly 70% - 80% retail longs for USD/JPY. We are currently sitting at about 50%...
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  • #33,311
  • Apr 5, 2013 6:36am Apr 5, 2013 6:36am
Quoting 100PipsADay
... PRICE breaking through SUPPORT and RESISTANCE tells us as much as PRICE bouncing off SUPPORT and RESISTANCE ...
Thanks, interesting read.

I take the point about resistance becoming support and vice versa, but I think that (1) this mechanism implies action based upon collective memory, and (2) collective memory fades over time. We all have access to monthly or quarterly charts, but a lot of the market isn't looking at them very often and I think this tends to weaken the support-becomes-resistance mechanism over the longer timeframe.

For the record: I am position trading and I've got the limit on my USD/JPY position (+274 pips as I write) set at 100. Not saying I won't up that to 101,5 though (100 was very random).

PK
  • #33,312
  • Apr 5, 2013 7:06am Apr 5, 2013 7:06am
Quoting Plofkip
Thanks, interesting read. I take the point about resistance becoming support and vice versa, but I think that (1) this mechanism implies action based upon collective memory, and (2) collective memory fades over time. We all have access to monthly or quarterly charts, but a lot of the market isn't looking at them very often and I think this tends to weaken the support-becomes-resistance mechanism over the longer timeframe. For the record: I am position trading and I've got the limit on my USD/JPY position (+274 pips as I write) set at 100. Not saying...
No problem, glad you enjoyed it.

Areas of support / resistance are of importance but only when observing price action at those levels. Also, the larger the time frame the more significant that area is.

Congrats on your trade, I'm right there with you!

One more bit of info if you folks don't mind in regards to support and resistance.

Just because PRICE slices through support and resistance doesn’t mean PRICE doesn’t respect that level. It DOES respect that PRICE – it just means that, at that point in time, it is not as important. The supply and demand conditions have changed such that the BUYERS and SELLERS are moving to different levels.

So, PRICE breaking through SUPPORT and RESISTANCE tells us as much as PRICE bouncing off SUPPORT and RESISTANCE.

However. it is not as simple as price breaking through a level and going to the next PRICE level. There are many factors to consider.

How did PRICE break through the level? The most important and significant question is, Where did PRICE close? Did it close above or below the level? Was it just a spike through the level?

What was the market sentiment when PRICE broke through the level? Was the bar just an average range bar or was it a bigger range bar? What were the bars before it – average or bigger?

Where is the next PRICE level?

Thanks Strat for this very useful and valuable information!
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  • #33,313
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:37am Apr 5, 2013 8:37am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Yes, but definitely a resumption of the weekly uptrend
Yup, this pair is lookin good to go for at least the next week and who knows after that.

Can't really tell if I want to try picking another entry today (1 breakeven). There is still time to make a new high, but chances are this area will get retraced over next week so maybe I'll wait. Always a bit dangerous to assume that we will retrace next tomorrow/next week though.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,314
  • Apr 5, 2013 8:53am Apr 5, 2013 8:53am
I am content for the time being with my USD/JPY positions.

Roughly 200 pips floating profit from the 4 USD/JPY positions.

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  • #33,315
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:10am Apr 5, 2013 9:10am
USDJPY:
For this pair course for today is to BUY and target is the 101.680 if the price begins downtrend than stop loss 92.865.
  • #33,316
  • Apr 5, 2013 9:10am Apr 5, 2013 9:10am
Quoting zusch
... Always a bit dangerous to assume that we will retrace next tomorrow/next week though.
:-)

Today's candle wick is going to mark a higher-high (that's already a fact) and we haven't previously been above 97 since August 2009. I think we're done with significant retracement for the time being (that was the story of the second half of March). Everyone was ready for new momentum; the BoJ has provided it; funds flowing out of Japan are being reported to be on a scale large enough to depress sovereign bond yields in the Euro zone (!). I am betting that it is onwards and upwards from here.

PK
  • #33,317
  • Apr 5, 2013 12:05pm Apr 5, 2013 12:05pm
Smelling a move to 97.45 before the close. That would put the 50% Fib of this week's range at 95.0 exactly.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,318
  • Apr 6, 2013 11:24am Apr 6, 2013 11:24am
Quoting zusch
Smelling a move to 97.45 before the close. That would put the 50% Fib of this week's range at 95.0 exactly.
Well, then. I guess you smelled correctly.
  • #33,319
  • Apr 7, 2013 3:16am Apr 7, 2013 3:16am
Whats the chance of seeing 100 this week it is only 250 pips away
  • #33,320
  • Apr 7, 2013 3:27am Apr 7, 2013 3:27am
Chances are great, I closed all of my Yen positions Friday because I thought I saw a better setup shorting the Euro. Really wishing I had held some if not all the Yen shorts, but I booked the profits and at the end of the day that's what this is all about. I think there will be better Yen setups coming in the next couple weeks, but a run up to close 100 looks in the cards probably by Tuesday.
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