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  • #783,161
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:08am Apr 5, 2013 1:08am
Quoting KiwiTrada
I remember last nfp, it was not a normal nfp she dropped and kept dropping, I had no new entries but my runners grew back their teeth, more often, the first drive is sucker drive, she then reverses hard then approx 30% retrace, then continuation Is another reason why I prefer watch and wait for dust to settle, the only successful nfp traders I have seen, , only enter after the retrace and trade the continuation, I have watched then do it very calm very relaxed very calculated, I have also watched traders trying to trade it from the hip, panic,...
yes, bro... will do. if I am going to do some tonight, then i'll go with tiny sizes. practicing anyway the craziest friday each month lol
ohh, thx for what you gave me I do not think I deserve that, yet
  • #783,162
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:09am Apr 5, 2013 1:09am
Quoting 21vs7
gday mate, hows the weather? As skiing season goes by, new oppurtunities open to ski. This winter holds nice atm Im going this weekend on my last session this season, early in the morning Zig Zag. Then a beer when sun comes out!
cloudy here in blighty - but then again I am away up north atm.

been a great skiing season I did meribel for new year with knee deep powder and sunshine, and Les Arcs in March with ankle deep powder and 50% sunshine. snow base has been extraordinarily good, I might even have another look towards then end of April.

make the most of it mate
  • #783,163
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:17am Apr 5, 2013 1:17am
Quoting drunkntrader
the more I stare at the recent 150point 1hr candstick on the Euro/usd, the more it resembles the last (3) 100-150point 1hr candlesticks(green bars that is) that abrubtly reversed.. granted, this could be my mind convincing me that i dont need to sweat and or cover my dangerous shorts im holding.. however, i honesly think the 2 month down trend looks pretty consistent in its path to distruction.. I guess i shall find out in the next 2-4hr time frame - funny how time always finds a way to prove your right or wrong, lol..
I don't know which ones were you talking about, but recent ones to me, were:
Quoting ec_creep
I'm both... the breakout on feb 20th, on my other chart, the other H4, suggests there's at least 80 pips above from here...
if this is one as well, that feb 20th is the closest. the one from feb 25th, imho, was different. and those after feb 25th, another different ones
have fun, mate...
  • #783,164
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:18am Apr 5, 2013 1:18am
morning dr. doom.
enjoy your morning rich coffee
  • #783,165
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:21am Apr 5, 2013 1:21am
Quoting ec_creep
morning dr. doom. enjoy your morning rich coffee
oh yes

so in this open zone, are you bull/bear EU & EJ chap?
  • #783,166
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:29am Apr 5, 2013 1:29am
Quoting MaxDoom
oh yes so in this open zone, are you bull/bear EU & EJ chap?
still bearish on eu, dr... ej, i am not trading that, just watching learning from your recent charts, and the levels from ken and math. i realize that if eu is indeed moving up, it won't be due to the same reason as the move up to 3700. it is extremely open now, yes, i am leaning towards waiting.

share your food for thoughts again, please
all ears...
  • #783,167
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:36am Apr 5, 2013 1:36am
This move is a game changer , not just a pop up on a title ... ( BOJ QE announcement )
* i have updated my target on EURJPY to ( A touch 138 before 2013 End )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #783,168
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:43am Apr 5, 2013 1:43am
Quoting masoud_s
if 1.2870 break eur -usd can tach 1.3040 {image}
1.2870 break
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  • #783,169
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:50am Apr 5, 2013 1:50am
E/J Daily

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  • #783,170
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:54am Apr 5, 2013 1:54am
Quoting 1candlepower
well, gone long from 2931 (SL@10). expecting long slog to near 3000 now, but not till frank gets in... i'm outta here.
L s/o @ 10. arrrgh.

considering L again at next tl supp ~2890/3 atm
  • #783,171
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:55am Apr 5, 2013 1:55am
Quoting hadox
1.2903 still needs a re-test, if not today prolly tomorrow..
trapped bears at 1.2903, bulls hiding at 1.2877..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #783,172
  • Apr 5, 2013 1:59am Apr 5, 2013 1:59am
Quoting ec_creep
still bearish on eu, dr... ej, i am not trading that, just watching learning from your recent charts, and the levels from ken and math. i realize that if eu is indeed moving up, it won't be due to the same reason as the move up to 3700. it is extremely open now, yes, i am leaning towards waiting. share your food for thoughts again, please all ears...
sure lets start with EU......

On the weekly chart we had a really nice clean ABC correction of the swing down 1.49xx to 1.20xx. Now if we accept that is a correction and assume it is complete then we should be looking to see continuation of the downward movement below 1.20xx. The clues on the way are:

- price staying below 1.317x (wA on chart)
- price moving below 1.266x (wB on chart)

if it breaks above the 1.317x then 1.349x and then 1.371x open up but these prices are still easily within the bounds of correction on this tf it just becomes a more complex one at that stage.


Looking at the daily we can see that we have possibly completed a 5 wave trend move down and maybe we will do some correction to that, although before we get too excited, it has hardly broken the down channel but a standard correction would give us 1313x to 1.334x zone, the lower end of that would allow the weekly scenario to remain completely intact. But I also think 1.302x might well hold it back anyway if it continues up for now.


On the hourly chart I see that it has retraced just over 62% of the last swing down, so it is at a nice point for a move down, and that current top aligns nicely with the previous tops of hourly swings which are getting lower....

So on a TA basis I am an EU bear.

Now look at the news yesterday - wtf with the rally eh! so Draghi's words have been given to mean a possible interest rate cut, and on the surface of it investors are saying that is positive because it will stimulate the economy. Will it really? and after how long a change from 0.75% to 0.25% will take how long to have an impact, in the meantime he also said that the growth was not happening across the EU zone. So I do not see any good news there far from it a small cut in rates is not the magic wand that will solve the problem and what with cyprus and the other potential bailouts not only weighing but being handled so badly and all the negative data from EU countries including germany over the last few weeks what good news is there really that is driving the rally?

So on a fundamental basis I am also a bear.

So I will continue to look for shorts not longs and I will generally sit out any upward pushes. Today in particular I will look for a retrace of yesterday move.

of course I can be wrong, of course it could fly to 1.37 and beyond, but I don't see it and I have my trigger numbers that will keep me safe.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #783,173
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:03am Apr 5, 2013 2:03am
Quoting ec_creep
i am not trading that, just watching i am leaning towards waiting.
You have won 90%
  • #783,174
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:10am Apr 5, 2013 2:10am
Entered a Long EU @ 1.2904 to target 1.3000
  • #783,175
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:16am Apr 5, 2013 2:16am
First Fib 1.2900 next 1.2870
  • #783,176
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:17am Apr 5, 2013 2:17am
Quoting GreatNorth
Entered a Long EU @ 1.2904 to target 1.3000

Stops to BE. Looks like we've made the low for the session ;-)
  • #783,177
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:21am Apr 5, 2013 2:21am
Quoting GreatNorth
Stops to BE. Looks like we've made the low for the session ;-)
based on a few pips !!!!!!

maybe we just made the high eh
  • #783,178
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:22am Apr 5, 2013 2:22am
Quoting MaxDoom
based on a few pips !!!!!! maybe we just made the high eh
Nope, not the high.
  • #783,179
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:22am Apr 5, 2013 2:22am
Quoting GreatNorth
Stops to BE. Looks like we've made the low for the session ;-)
Excellent call !

But then why let it SO at BE !
  • #783,180
  • Apr 5, 2013 2:29am Apr 5, 2013 2:29am
I don't know. If we break 1.2903 I think we can hit 1.2873. We have EUR gdp with a forecast of -.6 and retail sales. They may beat barely but we'll see.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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