EurAnalysis

Not sure I'm the best buddy... just going with the odds and this time I was right. Now let's see if my calculation of the odds are correct.

Odds are we'll see around 1.3150 before the sucker heads down again. Tomorrow's NFP may do it. If not, perhaps early/mid next week.

Thanks PT for the thoughts.

Well you know what the say excellence is the enemy of very good. Meaning if you have something very good and you mess with it to have excellence it may go all to hell.

So if not the best then VERY GOOD works for me

I would be pleased if Ms Market rises or falls as I am positioned both ways.

Are you related to God or GS?

1. EUR/USD spiked below 1.2750 on initially dovish take on Draghi comments
2. Draghi hinted at possibility of new measures via SMEs (More)
3. That combined with a short market saw a huge EUR squeeze
4. Stops above 200 DMA run & a high of 1.2949 was hit
5. Techs say rally persists; bullish engulfing forms; daily RSI diverges

One other thing to add on USD/JPY

I was away from my monitor most of the day however since Japan has announced they will join Benny and the Ink jets the USD/JPY probably got weaker and without looking at a chart over the last 24 hours I would think that the EUR/JPY cross went up also helping EUR/USD to move up along with the short squeeze and the Squaring of Positions before NFP of Friday.

I will stick to my 125,000 Call and if it is close market could actually go up if it helps confirm continued printing by the FED.

All possibilities should be looked at so you can react accordingly.

Welcome Back PipTrapper

I did my post this morning not knowing that you were back HOME.

CurrencyMan

CM you would be correct on the E/J

Some chart porn verification

was there and was respected .. at least so far.

ohenry: +142K

3050 ...!?

Ok gamblers oh I mean traders step up and place your bets...

This is the tally I have for tomorrows NFP farce

CM 125K
EuroTraderJD 142K
VTMN 247K
inpatient 165k
PT: +172K
ohenry: +142K

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Draghi took the scene after the ECB monetary policy meeting saying that the template is not a template, the country A is not the Country B, the eurozone's recovery will start its engines in the 2013 second half if the risk is not longer a risk and that banking system is safe in the Eurozone. Then market considered that the single currency was too cheap compared to the Greenback or the Japanese yen and it was the fiesta.

The EUR/USD is closing the session near to the 1.2950 after recovering more than 200 pips in the American session from the lowest level in 2013 at 1.2740. The movement came after the ECB's president Mario Draghi speech, but in the time between the interest rate decision and his speech, the EUR/USD declined 90 pips from 1.2830.

Other pair that joined the situation was the EUR/JPY with an impressive rally from 119.20 to reach the highest level since March 15 at 124.55. More than 535 pips in a one single session, the best since November 2008. the Yen was trading weak on the session following the BoJ aggressive stimulus programme.

The movement on the USD/JPY was impressive too. With around 370 pips from 92.70 to trade close to multi-year highs reached in march at 96.40, the dollar gained 3.40% on the day against the Yen. The Yen traded lower and lost ground against its major competitors. EUR/JPY (+4.10%), USD/JPY (+3.40%), GBP/JPY (4.15%) and AUD/JPY posting big advances.

Between ECB and NFP

Back to the Euro, the EUR/USD is hovering over 1.2950 after a wave of buying interest lifted the cross from fresh 2013 lows around 1.2740. The unexpected boost was charged on short covering, but it was mid American session, when rising stocks finally triggered stops above 1.2880 and saw the pair accelerating towards 1.2950 price zone.

In the meantime, employment data disappointed again in the US, with weekly claims up to 385K highest level of the year, following yesterdays ADP negative reading. One may suspect investors are already pricing in a negative NFP number.

"But until the report is released, the hourly chart shows price consolidating near the high, with indicators deep in overbought territory, and price showing no aims of correcting lower," comments FXstreet.com Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik. As for the short term, Valeria points that "in the 4 hours chart price broke well above 20 SMA and indicators head north above their midlines, which supports an upward continuation towards 1.3000 next big figure. Bears will remain reluctant as long as price hold above 1.2880 level."

However, many experts are still bearish in the EUR/USD. Westpac's Global FX Strategist Sean Callow wrote recently that the bank is "short the EUR/USD at 1.3020" Callow states that "key longer term moving averages around 1.2900 should stymie the topside but we are nevertheless inclined to tighten stops here (to 1.2950)."

In the same line, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts believe that EUR/USD looks neutral for the week ahead and they see spot moving between 1.2650 and 1.3050. Meanwhile, Citi analyst states that "1.2260 is fair value for the euro."

According to Citi, the EUR/USD could fall to 1.2600 in the middle term and the best chance for the euro to outperform is a weak US economic data or "Italy forces through stimulus measures in Europe."


The Employment day

Non farm payrolls, all is about the employment report in the United States. As BK Asset Management 's analyst Kathy Lien says, "the sustainability of today's rally in EUR/USD and USD/JPY will hinge on the outcome of this key report."

Market expectations go between 175K and 200K more payrolls for March. A decline from in the rate from 236K in February. Data seems to be pointing weak numbers but in the previous years, March was better than February in the US labor market.

"If non-farm payrolls grow by 175K or less, USD/JPY could give slip more than 0.5%. The EUR/USD will rally initially in this case but whether the rally lasts will depend on how bad the number is and its implications for risk," points Lien. " Stronger payrolls on the other hand will fuel an additional rally in USD/JPY that should take the pair up to its March high of 96.70."

Moving on to Friday docket, Italy will release its Public Deficit/GDP ratio for the fourth quarter ahead of the EMU Q1 GDP and Retail Sales. German Factory Orders will close the euro calendar.

Big day for the US economy, as the NFP will be in the limelight alongside the jobless rate for the month of March. US Trade Balance figures are also due, preceding the Consumer Credit Change.

ive participated like a milion times by now, victory is mine!

1. Draghi did not surprise & remained dovish [ID:nL5N0CR34K]
2. Stop under 1.2750 tripped then a classic 1.5% short squeeze
3. Bullish outside day & first close above 20 dma - 1.3000 test viable
4. Momentum studies are positive - overbought hourlies to cap in Asia
5. Bids around 1.2900 & 1.20950 offers are initial sup/res
6. Chart:http://link.reuters.com/dyh27t

LOL you can have all the glory my friend

gnomoneey: 201k

Updated NFP

CM 125K
EuroTraderJD 142K
VTMN 247K
inpatient 165k
PT: +172K
ohenry: +142K
gnomoneey: 201k

1. Edging slowly lower in last few hours on profit taking
2. 1.5% surge offshore stops/flow rather than news driven
3. Overbought hourly momentum studies are unwinding
4. Asia likely to consolidate ahead og U.S. payrolls
5. Prior 1.2880 high & offers @ 1.2950 initial sup/res
6. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/raj27t

Forex Flash: NFP at 200k - Westpac

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - “The Asia-Pacific calendar offers limited distraction ahead of the US Mar employment report,” notes Westpac's Sydney based strategist Sean Callow, adding: “While the Bloomberg median NFP forecast has crept down from 199K to 190K this week, we suspect the market is positioned for a figure nearer 170K, in the wake of soft ISMs, ADP and jobless claims,” Sean points out.

“Westpac is still on 200K, with an unemployment rate of 7.8% (consensus 7.7%),” the analyst expands, concluding: “We expect USD to react positively on any upside payrolls surprise and vice versa i.e. pro-growth rather than as a safe haven. The US Feb trade balance will be released at the same time, sure to be overlooked.”

With price having re-tested the long term trendline drawn from the 2011 high, a rally now appears to be under way. Strong daily close above the 200 day MA shows the wind is in the bulls' sails. We will buy a dip to re-test the previous daily high just below the 200 day MA - our bid is at 1.2880. We will target a test of the 50 day MA if filled - currently 1.314.

NFP (Not Freaking Possible)