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  • #66,641
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:15am Apr 4, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Ok, I need some advice I am short, did not know we were above the 200 Day MA as my chart shows it at 3070 (Oanda). Can we expect a retrace, or is this technical move so strong that any shorts around current price will soon be under water and for some time? Just trying to exit. I would break even at 1.2909
Well since you asked for advice.....

Only God, (Goldman Sucks and their ilk) know where the price is going. For the rest of us mere mortals its FA/TA.

I think it will reverse AT SOME POINT (I know not words of certainty) I am thinking tomorrow BUT DONT TRADE ON WHAT I SAY. I AM A MARKET MORON.

This is why I trade smaller than rational in a pyramid. MM is KEY KEY KEY to me at least because I dont use SL.

You say you are underwater with your shorts? So am with 24 of them from -94 tp -840+ and was still able to play the short side plus the long side at the same time.

No worries why because the market in time will revisit these positions so to play it again Sam... "I trade smaller than rational."
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,642
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:16am Apr 4, 2013 11:16am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Well since you asked for advice..... Only God, (Goldman Sucks and their ilk) know where the price is going. For the rest of us mere mortals its FA/TA. I think it will reverse AT SOME POINT (I know not words of certainty) I am thinking tomorrow BUT DONT TRADE ON WHAT I SAY. I AM A MARKET MORON. This is why I trade smaller than rational in a pyramid. MM is KEY KEY KEY to me at least because I dont use SL. You say you are underwater with your shorts? So am with 24 of them from -94 tp -840+ and was still able to play the short side plus the long side...
Right, good advice from one mortal to another. Thanks
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #66,643
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:20am Apr 4, 2013 11:20am
Brothers (and Sisters) boy do I know how to pick em. We are consolidating right where my existing long is @ 40

Yesterday I had a long @45 and short @36 just to have Ms Market tease me by gyrating between the two in a traders lap dance. I think she was a pole dancer in a previous life..

Watching the 1.2950 it could go through it for a bit.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,644
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:21am Apr 4, 2013 11:21am
Quoting Pip_Warrior
Right, good advice from one mortal to another. Thanks
You are welcome for what it was worth.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,645
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:23am Apr 4, 2013 11:23am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Equities in the US markets are trading back to the positive territory on Thursday, recovering ground after the poor weekly report on the labour market has undermined sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s Payrolls. The US Dollar Index retraced initial gains, falling from session highs around 83.60 to the current lows in the vicinity of 82.80.
DowJones is up 0.20%, followed by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, advancing 0.01% and 0.17%, respectively.

Bourses in Europe closed with losses after ECB’s Draghi predicted strong headwinds for the euro area in the second half of the year, hampering any attempts of a recovery. The FTSE100 led the losses, down 1.19% followed by the CAC40, 0.77% and the DAX, 0.73%.
After bottoming in the boundaries of 1.2740 on a dovish statement from the ECB, increasing buying interest lifted the single currency to levels shy of 1.2950, leaving behind the key region of 1.2880/90 (200-day moving average).

Commodities are trading mixed so far, with the barrel of WTI extending its decline to $92.91 or falling 1.63%, while the ounce troy of gold is posting marginal gains at $1,553 or 0.02%.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,646
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:55am Apr 4, 2013 11:55am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is extending its march north on Thursday, hovering over 1.2950 after a wave of buying interest lifted the cross from fresh 2013 lows around 1.2740.

Moving on to Friday docket, Italy will release its Public Deficit/GDP ratio for the fourth quarter ahead of the EMU Q1 GDP and Retail Sales. German Factory Orders will close the euro calendar. Big day for the US economy, as the NFP will be in the limelight alongside the jobless rate for the month of March. US Trade Balance figures are also due, preceding the Consumer Credit Change.

EUR/USD is now advancing 0.75% at 1.2945 with the next hurdle at 1.3050 (high Mar.25) followed by 1.3134 (high Mar.8).
On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2730 (low Nov.19) would expose 1.2680 (61.85 of 1.2042-13711) and then 1.2662 (low Nov.13)
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,647
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:58am Apr 4, 2013 11:58am
Chart Porn

18::25 GMT - EUR/USD has now done two key things technically to look a bit more bullish: 1) outside day reversal to the upside and 2) break the overhead TL. This action may not confirm a major sustained bottom, but at the very least the mkt should follow -through with the bit more bullish action toward 1.3000. Support now at 1.2877. R.Z


Attached Images http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1365101877
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,648
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:07pm Apr 4, 2013 12:07pm
Greek political veteran launches party to push for euro exit

Alekos Alavanos , the leader of SYRIZA from 2004-2008 has split from the party and formed a new party with the intention exiting the eurozone, according to ekathimerini.

Over recent months, he has criticized the party he used to lead, arguing that its goal of rejecting the terms of the EU-IMF bailout but remaining in the single currency was not credible.

He says “possibly as much as 50 percent” of Greeks support leaving the union. One lesson from history is that the longer a crisis lasts, the more likely radicals are to come to power.
That’s one of the things that makes the reluctance of the ECB to do more so puzzling. They never seem to appreciate the risks until it’s too late.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,649
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:34pm Apr 4, 2013 12:34pm
Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Hits New 4-Month Low then Rebounds

http://www.forexcrunch.com/wp-conten...D-1024x671.png
EUR/USD (daily chart) as of April 4, 2013 has hit a new 4-month low at 1.2744, dropping slightly below its prior low of 1.2750 that was hit just last week. After that low was hit, price rebounded on an intraday basis back up to the tentative 1.2880-area resistance thus far. The new low hinted at a potential continuation of the entrenched bearish trend that has been in place since the early February high around the 1.3700 handle. The medium-term downtrend has seen little in the way of significant upside corrections, as the euro has continued to be weighed down substantially for the past two months.


Having reached its downside target of 1.2800 last week, and then consolidating around this target level since then, in the event of continued bearish pressure after the rebound, price could move towards further downside objectives around the 1.2650 and then 1.2450 support zones. Major upside resistance continues to reside around the key 1.3000 level.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,650
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:41pm Apr 4, 2013 12:41pm
love the headline in forexlive:

If today wasn’t exciting enough for you, tomorrow is non-farm payrolls day.

How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #66,651
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:44pm Apr 4, 2013 12:44pm
Just Broke steep trend line
Nice double top on hourly and Doji
gently breaking resistance at 9032

I'm hoping this means we get, at least a brief visit, to 1.8770, though I would be happy with 1.90 so I can exit this bad mam'a jamma.
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #66,652
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:49pm Apr 4, 2013 12:49pm
Short @ 1.2930

5 SMA X 15 SMA on 10M

PA below both

RSI3 10M under 50

PA under 5 SMA on 30M

Not near HSR or 30M Fibs

Have an existing long @ 40

Whatever will be will be...but will be in green pips regardless

Although I dont like the lack of liquidity now but what the hell.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,653
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:52pm Apr 4, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting PipTrapper
For anyone who is interested in my opinion... 1. There will be no ECB rate cut today 2. The press conference will be the kicker coz the market will be intensely looking for any hints that a rate cut will come this year. 3. If there is a hint of a possible rate cat, watch the USD soar like an eagle and drag risk currencies down. If not, then I expect a corrective rally on most Euro crosses. Note that the BOE decision, no matter what it is, will not effect the ECB outcome.
No wonder we missed you. Spot on for all 3. Damn PT you are the best
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,654
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:55pm Apr 4, 2013 12:55pm
Earlier our esteemed FX comrade Currency Man was taking guesses on NFP

His 125,000

Mine 142,000

Any want to join the party for sh*ts and giggles?
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,655
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:05pm Apr 4, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Earlier our esteemed FX comrade Currency Man was taking guesses on NFP His 125,000 Mine 142,000 Any want to join the party for sh*ts and giggles?
VTMN 247K
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #66,656
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:08pm Apr 4, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting Vtmn
VTMN 247K
Cool Vtmn

Wow thats a big number!
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,657
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:12pm Apr 4, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Cool Vtmn Wow thats a big number!

i'm always wrong, so..
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #66,658
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:16pm Apr 4, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting Vtmn
i'm always wrong, so..
Now my brother I wouldnt say that. You could be on the money.

Like future prices only God and Goldman Sucks knows the future..
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,659
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:21pm Apr 4, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Earlier our esteemed FX comrade Currency Man was taking guesses on NFP His 125,000 Mine 142,000 Any want to join the party for sh*ts and giggles?
165k

i got tipped off this morning
Money never sleeps...
  • #66,660
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:29pm Apr 4, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Earlier our esteemed FX comrade Currency Man was taking guesses on NFP His 125,000 Mine 142,000 Any want to join the party for sh*ts and giggles?
PT: +172K
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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