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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #66,601
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:49am Apr 4, 2013 5:49am
Traders I got hassled from another poster for posting news if it is a problem I will stop.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,602
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:53am Apr 4, 2013 5:53am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Traders I got hassled from another poster for posting news if it is a problem I will stop.

Why should you stop ?

News is welcome. Keep on keeping on.

CM
  • #66,603
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:17am Apr 4, 2013 6:17am
Quoting CurrencyMan
You are getting very good at your analysis. I encourage you to continue on. How much capital are you trading with ? You can PM me on that question if you want. The call for me is 125,000 What is your call ? I cannot win the contest. Take care and be well.
CM thank you but I can not take credit on some of these. Since FA is part of trading I post news alerts on this and other forums as a service to my brother traders.

Now for my guess for NFP I would say 142,000.

Again CM thank you for wanting to continue this forum.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,604
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:22am Apr 4, 2013 6:22am
Thank you CM. I dont want to be a distraction.

On with the news

 

  1. Draghi's comments had EUR/USD clear 1.2750 but follow through limited
  2. Talk of Basel name putting bids into the mkt halted the slide
  3. Bears getting squeezed now as pair approaches 1.2790
  4. Large 1.2800 expiry (1bio EUR) now the focus

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,605
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:25am Apr 4, 2013 6:25am
Summary of presser so far:

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The ECB Governing Council once again decided to maintain the main interest rate at 0.75% at their April monetary policy meeting and refrained from introducing any new measures to boost the economy.

During the press conference following the meeting ECB president Mario Draghi said that inflation declined further in the first quarter of 2013, as expected, and that inflationary pressures should remain contained over the medium term. Meanwhile, economic activity in the Eurozone continues to be weak and that this weakness has spread to previously unaffected countries. Nevertheless, economic activity should recover gradually in the second half of the year. That is why the ECB will maintain its accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary.

Mario Draghi reminded that the ECB cannot fight the crisis on its own and that EU Member States should carry on with structural reforms in order to stimulate competitiveness and growth and reduce deficits.

During the Q&A part of the press conference the ECB president commented on the recent decision to bail-in depositors in Cyprus as part of the aid deal with international lenders, saying that it will not be used as a template for other Eurozone countries.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,606
  • Apr 4, 2013 6:37am Apr 4, 2013 6:37am
ECB President Mario Draghi used the words “monitoring very closely” in regards to the economic situation, that has deteriorated. This possible hint of a rate cut in May or June sent the euro plunging down towards the low support line of 1.2750. Draghi also cast a bit of doubt on the hopes for a recovery in H2.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,607
  • Apr 4, 2013 7:26am Apr 4, 2013 7:26am
probably true:

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that comments from ECB President Draghi reiterating that the commitment to the euro is "vastly under-estimated" has helped the euro claw back its earlier losses entirely, and a move above $1.2855, especially on a close basis, would be a very constructive technical development.

He notes that Draghi seemed to get frustrated at the press conference with hypothetical questions about a Cyprus exit, to which he commented that there is no Plan B. Further, Chandler notes that Draghi argued that Cyprus is neither a turning point nor a template which has been his view as well. He writes, “Each episode during the crisis has seen European officials innovate and build institutional capacity. It is not quite the same EU or ECB as it was in 2010 when the Greek revelations were first made.” Separately, he adds that Draghi noted that the Emergency lending Assistance does not have seniority and ELA is loans from a national central abnk. He writes, “Banks turn to the ELA facility when they do not have collateral acceptable to the ECB. This seems to throw the ELA out of the official sector and toward the sector that can participate in haircuts and losses.”
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,608
  • Apr 4, 2013 8:12am Apr 4, 2013 8:12am
Fed’s Fisher: Japanese easing does not put pressure on the Fed to continue



Fisher is speaking to Bloomberg TV:

 

  1. Says QE won’t go on forever
  2. Kuroda is going to be a good central banker

Wonder if we’ll see Fisher’s tune change if USD/JPY hits 110.00 and US manufacturers start squealing.

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,609
  • Apr 4, 2013 8:14am Apr 4, 2013 8:14am
Growth in peripheral euro countries - Spain, Italy and Greece - is crashing. Draghi admitted weakness is spreading to the core. The ECB's bond-buying pledge (OMT) has helped cap peripheral bond yields, but more needs to be done to help activity. The ECB's refi rate at 0.75% is already low and a cut may not make much difference to real activity, but as a token it might have helped boost confidence. However, for some reason the bank is reluctant. "The discussion was extensive. All in all the consensus was for the time being not to look at rates."
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,610
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:26am Apr 4, 2013 9:26am
Quoting gnomoneey
welcome back and nice to hear you are doing well....
Quoting ohenry
Hey PT good to have u back mate..u were missed...glad all is well with u I hope that time will allow u to post ur much appreciated analysis again... p.s well done on all those green shorts my friend..u stuck to ur guns...fantastic!
Thank you my friends.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,611
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:26am Apr 4, 2013 9:26am
PT is back
  • #66,612
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:26am Apr 4, 2013 9:26am
Quoting rekon67
PT is back
Yep
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,613
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:34am Apr 4, 2013 9:34am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thank you my friends.
PT you almost stopped my heart. WOW this made my day. A hero welcome to you!!!
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #66,614
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:04am Apr 4, 2013 10:04am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
PT you almost stopped my heart. WOW this made my day. A hero welcome to you!!!
Oh no. I don't want to be responsible for your heart stopping. Next time I'll sneak in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,615
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:07am Apr 4, 2013 10:07am
huge

wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Quoting PipTrapper
Yep
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #66,616
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:07am Apr 4, 2013 10:07am
Still some underwater Euro shorts in the Oanda demo account, but starting to take shape.
Live account is about the same.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PipTrapper's Profile @ Forex Factory.png Size: 63 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,617
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:09am Apr 4, 2013 10:09am
Quoting forex_growth
huge wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,618
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:13am Apr 4, 2013 10:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
Oh no. I don't want to be responsible for your heart stopping. Next time I'll sneak in
Not that you owe us any details, but we missed you man! A few regulars did their best to keep the thread active. You fine men know who you are.

You had many on this thread panicking, myself include, that it may not make the thread of the year again without your smooth touch...I hope you were on a long vacation from the spoils of 100's of green pips.

Happy to learn you are back, safe and ready to contribute mate!

Chodd
  • #66,619
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:28am Apr 4, 2013 10:28am
Quoting chodd22
Not that you owe us any details, but we missed you man! A few regulars did their best to keep the thread active. You fine men know who you are. You had many on this thread panicking, myself include, that it may not make the thread of the year again without your smooth touch...I hope you were on a long vacation from the spoils of 100's of green pips. Happy to learn you are back, safe and ready to contribute mate! Chodd
oh my..

Russia gets a bad name on international money laundering, guess who the worst offender is


wait... what... did i see PipTrapper posting? WELCOME BACK
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #66,620
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:32am Apr 4, 2013 10:32am
EUR/USD rises above 200-day moving average

Buy stops hit as the 200-day moving average breaks.
EUR/USD quickly rallies to 1.2914.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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