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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,281
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:30am Apr 4, 2013 12:30am
Quoting bogus
Be interesting to see how price reacts around 94.32 {image}
I'm actually hoping for some consolidation/retrace so I can add some more longs. Looking to ride this gravy train for the next 2-3 weeks if bullish momentum doesn't slow down.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,282
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:34am Apr 4, 2013 12:34am
Quoting livethedream
I'm actually hoping for some consolidation/retrace so I can add some more longs. Looking to ride this gravy train for the next 2-3 weeks if bullish momentum doesn't slow down.
a lot already factored in. 2000 pip run from 76 to 96. its due for a breather, for a few months atleast
  • #33,283
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:40am Apr 4, 2013 12:40am
Quoting Halba
a lot already factored in. 2000 pip run from 76 to 96. its due for a breather, for a few months atleast
It may be "due" but I don't think it's gonna happen until we see 100, or at least closer to it.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,284
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:46am Apr 4, 2013 12:46am
Quoting livethedream
It may be "due" but I don't think it's gonna happen until we see 100, or at least closer to it.
quite possible. but forex market factors things in ahead of announcements. its had months to factor it in.

now the news is out. what other possible drivers are there? its been up on months of jawboning and verbals, now none of that is going to occur.
  • #33,285
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:49am Apr 4, 2013 12:49am
Quoting Halba
quite possible. but forex market factors things in ahead of announcements. its had months to factor it in. now the news is out. what other possible drivers are there? its been up on months of jawboning and verbals, now none of that is going to occur.
You make a good point. Guess we'll have to see how PA plays out.
"If you won't risk the usual, you'll have to settle for the ordinary."
  • #33,286
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:12am Apr 4, 2013 1:12am
How often do you see a candle like that ?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #33,287
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:22am Apr 4, 2013 1:22am
Some happy faces if your long lets see PA at 95. I might short at 95.20 for a small retrace. Any thoughts on where it will end up at days end?
  • #33,288
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:33am Apr 4, 2013 1:33am
Quoting bogus
How often do you see a candle like that ?
but lets put it into perspective - 3.8tril yen/month to 7 tril yen is expected by the market so far. it is up 2000 pips in 3-4 months ish, which is more than a 25% devaluation in a currency. its unheard of in such a short period of time, apart from the eur,aud from the GFC which imo doesn't count in the stats!

after the news settles- and the market realises there is no further announcements, it'll start dropping or consolidating back to original range of 92.50 to 96

areas of potential tops- 96 96.5 and 97 - significant supply zones.

keep in mind the exponential chart increases are not feasible -whatever the financial instrument. they all consolidate/come down at some point.

keep in mind the USD is printing at an annual rate of $1trillion dollars as well..and theres no carry trade here, both are at zero interest...
  • #33,289
  • Apr 4, 2013 1:44am Apr 4, 2013 1:44am
Quoting Halba
but lets put it into perspective - 3.8tril yen/month to 7 tril yen is expected by the market so far. it is up 2000 pips in 3-4 months ish, which is more than a 25% devaluation in a currency. its unheard of in such a short period of time, apart from the eur,aud from the GFC which imo doesn't count in the stats! after the news settles- and the market realises there is no further announcements, it'll start dropping or consolidating back to original range of 92.50 to 96 areas of potential tops- 96 96.5 and 97 - significant supply zones. keep in...
I'm just a chartist.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #33,290
  • Apr 4, 2013 2:04am Apr 4, 2013 2:04am
Quoting Halba
but lets put it into perspective - 3.8tril yen/month to 7 tril yen is expected by the market so far. it is up 2000 pips in 3-4 months ish, which is more than a 25% devaluation in a currency. its unheard of in such a short period of time, apart from the eur,aud from the GFC which imo doesn't count in the stats! after the news settles- and the market realises there is no further announcements, it'll start dropping or consolidating back to original range of 92.50 to 96 areas of potential tops- 96 96.5 and 97 - significant supply zones. keep in...
Jessica Halba!

lol sorry couldn't resist...

Just wanna say I like your analysis, and pretty much agree with you that the market had months to factor in this QE, and should not shoot too high north from here because in many ways the price is overextended from the bottom.
  • #33,291
  • Apr 4, 2013 2:08am Apr 4, 2013 2:08am
Nice usd/jpy I expected this from yesterday http://forexrealtrading.blogspot.com...sty-i-moj.html
More on my Blog...
  • #33,292
  • Apr 4, 2013 3:05am Apr 4, 2013 3:05am
i note a 277 pip 4 h candle. reminds me of the Swissy central bank moves 2 yrs ago.

resistance at 96, if it fails, its a triple top

i think the central bank manipulation of this one is over, with the news released today, now in the market.
  • #33,293
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:13am Apr 4, 2013 4:13am
In on Tuesday at 93,435 for a 200pip win as of now.
Can't decide if I should exit and wait for a reload moment or put in a breakeven SL and consider this a leg on my millipede.
Opinions very welcome.
PK
  • #33,294
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:41am Apr 4, 2013 4:41am
30min chart looks ready to spike up again to me.
Pure intuition, unless you want to call it a bear-engulfing-setting-sun candle pattern, or some such twaddle.
<smile>
  • #33,295
  • Apr 4, 2013 4:51am Apr 4, 2013 4:51am
The big boys are going to push this to at least 100, they are all loaded and know all the stops above 96. They will run those stops for sure, it is like taking candy from all of the babies. That squeeze will cause the stock to pop to 100 easily. Speculators will pile in when they see the big boys run those stops. And I can't foresee any carry traders or safe haven guys using yen, Kuroda basically said he will destroy those trades. Remember the BOJ have another time to talk more on the 19th, so he will probably talk it up all the way there.
  • #33,296
  • Apr 4, 2013 5:32am Apr 4, 2013 5:32am
Hello

100 for sure

still I would expect big retraces

like the one we just had for over a week

Hey my longs loaded up,but these we pull backs

I am clipping the ticket on each move,see green an take it fast

  • #33,297
  • Apr 4, 2013 10:27am Apr 4, 2013 10:27am
They won't let anyone out of the bear trap. Once the high and stops are taken out. I expect a strong surge up and minor pullbacks before moving higher. Classic bear trap. And who seriously want to bet against a central bank hell bent on printing aggressively??? I don't know any banks that is stupid enough to do that.
  • #33,298
  • Apr 4, 2013 11:23am Apr 4, 2013 11:23am
Quoting Jb3
... And who seriously want to bet against a central bank hell bent on printing aggressively??? I don't know any banks that is stupid enough to do that.
What about the ECB, the BoE and the SNB, almost every major central bank on the planet? I'm not following what the Fed's up to, but while the US is running an 8% budget deficit ( http://goo.gl/omDGT ) and the USD is the global reserve currency it amounts to the same thing. It's full scale currency war, isn't it?

But the BoJ seems to be good at what its press releases refer to as "currency diplomacy". I think that means explaining to Washington that global recovery requires (at least nominal) growth in Japan. So long as the Japanese authorities are winning the currency war (war being diplomacy continued by other means), then shorting JPY is a good plan.

Onwards to the bottom, comrades.
:-)
PK
  • #33,299
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:00pm Apr 4, 2013 12:00pm
- Looking to close my long at 98.00

- Trading Yen pairs has been very profitable to me.

- Cheers.
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  • #33,300
  • Apr 4, 2013 9:29pm Apr 4, 2013 9:29pm
Anyone know where the top is?
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
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