EURUSD

I will not...
the first with Haruhiko Kuroda at the helm of the institution...
policy that he chooses!? weak or strong!?yen..

Who gave the approval? The United Nations?

EJ crystal ball projections


Scenario 1

BOJ makes it rain money. No 2 step stuff...just hitting the red button and making money rain from the skies. This would definitely make the EUR rise a bit...especially if they magically manage to not come out with horrible data for a week or two. Again, everyone wave to Slovenia! Looking at 120.50, 122.00, and 123.50. Given all of Europe's issue even the if the BOJ makes it rain the up move could be limited to 300-500pips. 120.85 will be strong resistance imo...so will 121.85 funny enough.

Scenario 2

BOJ acts mildly and announces a 2 step program and doesn't go full out crazy. This wouldn't help to push the EUR up vs the Yen...and maybe let it shoot lower by a good few pips. Looking at 117.00 or 117.50 if traders are disappointed and sell the EUR. Given the upcoming issues with Slovenia this is a real scenario...

Also, notice that Trix is oversold, but my combo indicator is still bearish. The slow Trix is still red, and the fast one's still a bit off it...definitely some room to drop further. In terms of Centre of Gravity we already dropped through the first support level and are on the way to the next lower one (and it's really much lower at around 114.00!).

In terms of Murrey Math, 4/8th (major support/resistance) is at 119.73 with the next lower level at 117.17 (no joke). To break up to the upside I want to see 120.30 clearly broken. 121.85 is a major reversal level too...so if the BOJ announces an ok money rain, that's a great level to target imo. 117.17 is my downside target.

Oh yeah, KS/TS cross is bearish too.

Now if you ask me what's more likely...I don't have the slightest clue. If price stays below 119.73 I'm only going to look at shorts, and for long confirmation I'd like to see 120.20 clearly broken. On the downside, everything below 119.73 is fair game for shorts.

PS: I'm sure there's typos above...

Time to take everthign out of my bank accounts.

Roger that brother.

Two North Korean Submarines "Disappeared"



Chosun TV is reporting that South Korean military have lost contact with two North Korean submarines that left their naval base in Hwanghae Province a few days ago.
There has obvioulsy been a lot of changes between last week and now and South Korea military officials suggested that while maneuvers in February were nothing meaningful, now it is provocation.
The two 'torpedo' subs are small 130-ton, 30-meter, 10-man machines that can stay submerged for three-to-four days.

1. Since Mar 27 low, choppy bear flag has been forming below 200 DMA
2. Bear flag below key support suggests a test of next support at least
3. 61.8% fib at 1.268 is next key level, near Nov 2012's important low
4. Stops below there if tripped could accelerate the decline
5. Chart: http://link.reuters.com/web27t
6. See (More) for more

Some of my FX brothers trade the Yen Xs so this news flash is for you.

Today's BoJ 3 potential scenarios to watch for - Kathy Lien



FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Today's BoJ meeting, under the leadership of Governor Kuroda, is expected to trigger some wild swings in the Yen markets. According to Kathy Lien, co-founder at BKAsset Management, based on last week's comments, "he doesn't plan to keep the BoJ sitting on the their hands for another month."

"While most investors also expect Japan's central bank to announce new easing measures, the recent rally in the Yen suggests most expect the BoJ to underwhelm" Kathy says, adding that "Kuroda's team has many options at their disposal and the final announcement can take many forms." The analyst presents below 3 basic scenarios that traders should be watching.

From Kathy Lien:

Scenario #1 - BoJ Pull Forward Open Ended APP Program > Bullish for USD/JPY : The most aggressive announcement that the BoJ can make would be to pull forward their open ended Asset Purchase Program from 2014 to May 2013 or better yet, immediately. By shifting to unlimited QE, the central bank would prove to the market their level of commitment. This should come hand in hand with an extension of the duration of JGB purchases - the further out, the better. If they also increase the amount of risk assets bought beyond JGBs, it would be a perfectly wrapped gift to the economy and the market. Forex traders would most likely respond extremely well, taking USD/JPY up to 94 and possibly even 95.

Scenario #2 - Increase Scope and Maturity of their APP Program > Potential for Disappointment: While we would like to think the best of the BoJ, the second and most likely scenario is a contained expansion in monetary policy that would allow them to reevaluate the market's reaction and increase stimulus further at the end of the month. Currently the BoJ is buying JGBs up to 3 years, if they extend their purchases to 5 years and leave it at that, it would probably be interpreted as a disappointment. If they expand purchases to 10 years, it would be neutral to slightly bearish for USD/JPY but if they expand the maturity of bonds purchased to 30 years, it could lift USD/JPY but the gains would be nominal. Aside from the size and scope of asset purchases, the BoJ is also widely expected to form a new Asset Purchase fund by merging current JGB purchases with Rinban operations. They are also expected to abolish the banknote rule, which limits their long term JGB purchases to the amount of banknotes in circulation.

Scenario #3 - No Major Changes to APP Program > Bearish for USD/JPY: The third scenario would be the most disastrous for USD/JPY, which would be no major changes to the BoJ's asset purchase program. This is the least likely scenario because to forgo any major action would be a sign of weakness for the new central bank governor and raise the question of whether they will be able to make do on their promises at all. In this scenario, they would still probably abolish the banknote rule and merge JGB and Rinban purchases but that won't be enough.

Kathy ends her view on the BoJ meeting by connecting the dots with CFTC's IMM data, which suggests that many speculators remain short Yen, "so in order for the rally in USD/JPY to regain momentum, the BoJ will need to over deliver" she says, adding that "anything short of open ended QE and major expansion in the scope and duration of asset purchases may not be enough" Kathy concludes.

Yeah right, this is also true in the natural gas fields. A very important product for traders comes with the natural gas.
This product is Helium and Helium is important for ALL traders.

The winners use it to fill balloons with.
The losers use it to commit easy suicide.

you mean convert e-money to paper money ? mmmmmm



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation check what happened during war (Germany 1923) or when we ruled by mad people (Zimbabwe )
don't forget to check Hungary, 1945–46


if you covert them into coin (thanks to 4exNinja)you can sell it for metal

Bitcoin

Very interesting article.

i prefer normal coin as it's at least have metal value

The metal value is a tiny fraction of the paper value...so not a massive difference.

well coin you can sell it for scrap metal , paper money you can use it for heating make a wise choice

btn : Aussie spiking

AGREED Been saving my US change (coins) just for this reason. Coins have melt value as well.

I agree with the principals of Bitcoin however its digital and if no internet or power your money is powerless. Also very few retailers accept them.

In case of massive devaluation I think the metal in the coins will be worth more than paper.

I would like to put my bet and long here 284x

Hey Mohan, how's your little one doing?

04 Apr EUR/USD Daily
Choppy in consolidation from the 1.2751 low though the upside still limited below the 200-day MA, now at 1.2892. Would take break here to trigger stronger recovery, higher see more resistance at 1.2911/24 and 1.2945. Support starts at 1.2790 thenthe 1.2771/51 lows. Break will resume the downtrend from 1.3711 high of Jan. [P.L]

R5:: 1.2945 intraday level R4: 1.2911/24 14, 13 Mar lows
R3: 1.2892 * 200-day MA
R2: 1.2878 * 2 Apr high
R1: 1.2864 3 Apr high

S1: 1.279 3 Apr low
S2: 1.2771 * 1 Apr low
S3: 1.2751 * 28 Mar low
S4: 1.2740/36 19, 21 Nov lows
S5: 1.2691 16 Nov low

anyone have readings on Gold after hours trading, i hear of a jump up. same with after hours s/p trading