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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,261
  • Mar 30, 2013 8:12am Mar 30, 2013 8:12am
Quoting BobGnarly
Trade Of The Year: MS, DB, Barclays, JPM, CS All Long USD/JPY Ahead Of BOJ

http://www.efxnews.com/story/18055/t...djpy-ahead-boj

Makes me want to short the heck out of it bro!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #33,262
  • Mar 30, 2013 1:16pm Mar 30, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Trade Of The Year: MS, DB, Barclays, JPM, CS All Long USD/JPY Ahead Of BOJ








http://www.efxnews.com/story/18055/t...djpy-ahead-boj
  • #33,263
  • Mar 30, 2013 2:03pm Mar 30, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting albchr
Makes me want to short the heck out of it bro!


I was thinking of you when I read this lol .. I remember you saying how it seems fishy when this stuff pops up dont blame you at all, makes me wonder as well.. But the fundamentals make sense to me
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  • #33,264
  • Mar 30, 2013 2:46pm Mar 30, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I was thinking of you when I read this lol .. I remember you saying how it seems fishy when this stuff pops up dont blame you at all, makes me wonder as well.. But the fundamentals make sense to me
I guess if too many people want some price (I mean 100), usually it happens. What will be after - the other question...
  • #33,265
  • Edited 4:01pm Mar 30, 2013 3:49pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting BobGnarly
I was thinking of you when I read this lol .. I remember you saying how it seems fishy when this stuff pops up dont blame you at all, makes me wonder as well.. But the fundamentals make sense to me
I'm that transparently skeptical huh?? LOL

Seriously bud, you know I make no secret that I know almost nothing about fundamentals but I'm a pretty good student of human nature. As we've talked about, with all this almost year long hype about "short the crap out of the Yen", that makes me suspicious enough.

But I have to wonder here. If you were these big guys, would you put your "true" intentions out in the public eye? I wouldn't unless I plan to trap folks on the wrong side. You say the fundamentals make sense and perhaps they do. But, aren't these the types that "create" the fundamentals? And...are they really on our side as to "tip us off" to a good move? Hmmm.....

When I add in my TA view, it's pretty clear that the yen is at least having a hard time dropping below the 50% and the TL for two monthly attempts now. Even if it does, I see some correction at least possible after 8 straight months of decline. So in your case being a long term trader, you may get some good buying prices coming.

Yep....I guess I'm skeptical...LOL
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #33,266
  • Mar 30, 2013 4:12pm Mar 30, 2013 4:12pm
BOJ: Expect only a small change in the first meeting under Kuroda

For traders of the Japanese yen, the first BOJ meeting under the new leadership is a huge event, as expectations are very high. However, the BOJ may announce only a limited policy change at first, before making a bigger move., as Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX explains in detail.

In the interview below, Vecchio also addresses the impact of the FOMC meeting on markets. This is the first part of the interview. A second part, focusing on Cyprus, will be published after the Easter holiday.

Christopher Vecchio is a currency analyst for DailyFX. With a background in political science and law, he focuses on the interrelationships between geopolitical events, macroeconomic trends, and market reactions. Also an active trader, Christopher monitors the markets around the clock. Expertise: News events, market reactions, and macro trends.

The BOJ convenes next week for the first time under governor Kuroda. Could he bring forward open-ended QE? If so, what other measures could the new leadership take?

When considering Kuroda’s likelihood path of easing, he’s going to implement policies that aren’t too controversial, as he does need to be reelected after April 8, due to the technicality of Masaaki Shirakawa resigning early on March 19 (Kuroda needs to finish Shirakawa’s term).

If he sets forth policies that are too dovish, he and his deputy governors could lose favor quickly among the main opposition DPJ, especially Kikuo Iwata. Earlier this week, Governor Kuroda made clear that two things will happen in his tenure: the BoJ will hit its inflation target of +2.0% y/y within two years; and resulting from the increased inflation target, increased asset purchases, likely including Japanse Government Bonds (JGBs).

In this interim period before April 8, we should expect Kuroda’s BoJ to first increase its monetary easing program. If increased asset purchases don’t stoke medium-term inflation (they won’t), Kuroda’s BoJ will wait until after the next round of confirmations before accelerating the Shirakawa-mandated open easing timeline from January 2014 to midyear 2013.

The market responded to the past two FOMC meeting minutes releases with a stronger US dollar, as the minutes showed that there are also hawks in the Federal Reserve, even though Bernanke and other doves are in control. Can we expect a similar market reaction for the third time?

I suspect so. It’s clear that Fed policymakers are taking a more optimistic outlook on the economy. Even though the recent meeting produced economic forecasts that I would described as “uninspiring,” I believe that despite the ceiling for growth has been lowered, the floor has been at least firmed slightly, given the strength of the US consumer in the beginning of 2013.

Considering the pace of quick government austerity – defense spending declined by -22.1% y/y annualized in the 4Q’12, while the payroll tax resulting from the fiscal cliff deal stuck workers with an extra -2% per paycheck – a resilient US consumer is key to the recovery going forward.

If Congress actually does its job and lessens the current fiscal drag, the US economy will be in even better shape, prompting an even more hawkish Fed. In the near-term, I expect the coming Minutes to focus on the fiscal drag and the uninspiring economic forecasts, so a muted bullish reaction should be expected.
  • #33,267
  • Mar 30, 2013 5:01pm Mar 30, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting albchr
I'm that transparently skeptical huh?? LOL

Seriously bud, you know I make no secret that I know almost nothing about fundamentals but I'm a pretty good student of human nature. As we've talked about, with all this almost year long hype about "short the crap out of the Yen", that makes me suspicious enough.

But I have to wonder here. If you were these big guys, would you put your "true" intentions out in the public eye? I wouldn't unless I plan to trap folks on the wrong side. You say the fundamentals make sense and perhaps they do....

You are a great trader my dude, I wish I could draw trendlines and all that other cool stuff you draw up. I am a terrible technical trader, but I am working on it very hard. I just dont see the BOJ letting the Yen getting too strong, it will defeat the purpose of their new easing tactics.

And for the Big boys, lol.. I look at it in 2 ways, 1st way is the way you put it. 2nd.. These big banks making calls on public news sites, means confidence, Would you like to be one of the top traders at those firms and call a completely bogus trade? They put themselves in the spotlight for respect and much more... It can be either but when fundies match up with there calls I find it reassuring sometimes.
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  • #33,268
  • Mar 30, 2013 5:18pm Mar 30, 2013 5:18pm
I too look at the fundamentals and trade longer term. I would be interested in knowing your target price for this pair as well as the the GBP/USD since you trade for larger pip ranges. Also, the corrections for the USD/JPY have been somewhat predictable (ie. 96.5 down to 94 and before that 94 to 91) Have you considered shorting once a price level reaches benchmark numbers such as when we hit 96.5 for the first time a week or so ago? Thanks for your insight.
  • #33,269
  • Mar 31, 2013 2:38am Mar 31, 2013 2:38am
Quoting orabi
save this image in your desktop and watch it . new system under development that use numbers only in special equation Fibonacci numbers are also used in 27 of coming month we may have the lower most point in usd jpy for the rest of the year . all have a nice day
this view is cancelled sorry for that
have a nice day all
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #33,270
  • Mar 31, 2013 3:26pm Mar 31, 2013 3:26pm
Monthly candle going to close below the 50% Fib of its range and under February's high, creating a long upper wick. I talked about the significance of the monthly close in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post6546343, but I don't think many people read it maybe because the chart looks too simple or maybe because I don't have 10 vouches.

Bulls shouldn't let last month's lows (92.43) get broken if the uptrend is to continue. There should be a decent buying opportunity at the beginning of April similar to the beginning of March. Strong sell setups would happen more towards the middle of the month in the 95 area.

Also worth noting that the S&P/USDJPY correlation is starting to diverge. ES closed the month at highs while U/J closed with long upper wick. I think equities will continue to trade smoother and trendier.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,271
  • Mar 31, 2013 6:16pm Mar 31, 2013 6:16pm
Gidday

Holding longs US/JPY
Sitting 94 for a week
If you were trying to get all the punters enter longs an hold on to them US/JPY
They would need to see some action early this week
I will be cutting back my longs,I don't like these retraces
  • #33,272
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:07am Apr 1, 2013 3:07am
Hi guys , sorry for my long long absence in this thread, but I had sooo many projects and I didn't had time to post my charts here. I'm long since 80, from November, closing and opening in cascade and it work wonderfully and is going to work also from now on.
Below you will see my comment to the S.Korean comment news.

"Hmm....I'm trading UJ for the last 7 months and I've started to understand a bit the gimmicks of this pair. What I see now I think is only smoke and mirrors, beginning of the month and some "BigMouth" ( in my opinion the S.Korean prime minister is no one for this pair, this is his 1st statement regarding this subject and now we see this south move... bla bla) had to put the pair down so the big players: Banks, HedgeFunds, giant private forex traders, could reload from lower positions and again start the race to 95.300 which is the Fibo level 261.8, and after a brake and confirmation there to 106 which is the 423.6 Fibo level on Monthly.
Maybe I'm wrong but I think that if YEN strengths again, all this Abeconomics + BOJ action will be in vane and also Kuroda will appear as an unworthy replacement for Shirakawa.

Cheers,
VladG

P.S: Happy April's Fools UJ bears...."
  • #33,273
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:09am Apr 1, 2013 3:09am
+3.4R....reversing my position, let's see how it behaves.
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  • #33,274
  • Apr 1, 2013 3:12am Apr 1, 2013 3:12am
Quoting Kanzler
+3.4R....reversing my position, let's see how it behaves. {image}
Nice reload , can I suggest something ? Open a bit higher volume with a close TP and also open a small position that you will be able to do carry trading and leave it until 95.300 or even higher
  • #33,275
  • Edited 3:23am Apr 1, 2013 3:19am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting MisterSpread
Nice reload , can I suggest something ? Open a bit higher volume with a close TP and also open a small position that you will be able to do carry trading and leave it until 95.300 or even higher
It gets too much to bother with with FIFO rules in the US meaning I'd have to be really careful closing out positions. That and trying to play higher time frame levels while entering on lower ones in between starts to become a little distracting, to the point that I start rationalizing leaving positions open here I should really be closing and possibly reversing them and having that be the end of it. This is a demo account, and so far the results of my trading have been great, but I'm going to just stick with what I'm doing now and see how it turns out by around June to find out if it's really valid or not before I put real capital behind it. Only recently started to figure out what I'm doing in this industry. I think.

Also, a good rejection so far on this level I just bought at, gives me some encouragement that it may end up just taking off instead of hanging around and making me nervous. I typically give it two periods to do something or I exit for a loss or pull to b/e if in profit. Plenty of losers and break-even trades but the winners do a good job of making up for them.
  • #33,276
  • Apr 1, 2013 5:26am Apr 1, 2013 5:26am
Quoting Kanzler
It gets too much to bother with with FIFO rules in the US meaning I'd have to be really careful closing out positions. That and trying to play higher time frame levels while entering on lower ones in between starts to become a little distracting, to the point that I start rationalizing leaving positions open here I should really be closing and possibly reversing them and having that be the end of it. This is a demo account, and so far the results of my trading have been great, but I'm going to just stick with what I'm doing now and see how it turns...

50 pips rebound since I said that I don't believe in this fall....keep on your longs and reload as much as you can under 94 for upcoming weeks .

Safe trading 2 you all !
  • #33,277
  • Apr 1, 2013 6:50am Apr 1, 2013 6:50am
You'll see that what I said before, regarding that this is TOTALLY market manipulation is proven in the chart below. The first yellow circle is the value and time where the "BIG" news about the S.Korean Prime Minister was published ( such important man that they didn't bothered to write his name =D ), the 2nd shows where the parity was rejected by a big resistance and where the big Boys ( Banks,HedgeFunds, BigPlayers ) opened again long positions.
In less than 4 hours UJ went from 93.250 to 93.850, all this in a day when all the European markets are closed and usually the volatility should be medium to low.

All the best,
VladG
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  • #33,278
  • Apr 1, 2013 1:36pm Apr 1, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting MisterSpread
50 pips rebound since I said that I don't believe in this fall....keep on your longs and reload as much as you can under 94 for upcoming weeks . Safe trading 2 you all !
Cut it for a razor thin 3 pip loss. You're probably right but I'm not comfortable holding trades that behave like this, although sometimes they do end up going the original direction. The longer they hang around the demand zone the more of the demand they eat up, and since re-entering the bounce has been lackluster to say the least.

Incidentally EJ is behaving similarly, in a demand zone but still chewing it up. Very well may be broader Yen strength at work.
  • #33,279
  • Apr 2, 2013 3:14am Apr 2, 2013 3:14am
Quoting goshko147
{image}
this is my vision good luck!
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  • #33,280
  • Apr 4, 2013 12:19am Apr 4, 2013 12:19am
Be interesting to see how price reacts around 94.32
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