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  • #780,181
  • Mar 30, 2013 12:18am Mar 30, 2013 12:18am
Quoting math_GB
Who is "we", what is "serius"...? You mean serious...?
I, the royal we. You know, the editorial. I dropped off the money exactly as per... Look, man I've got certain information alright? Certain things have come to light. And, you know, has it ever occured to you that instead of uh, running around uh, uh, blaming me? You know, given the nature of all this new shit. You know, this could be a a lot more uh, uh, uh complex. I mean it's not just. It might not be just such a simple uh, you know?

I'll tell you what I'm blathering about. I've got information, man. New shit has come to light.
  • #780,182
  • Mar 30, 2013 3:28am Mar 30, 2013 3:28am
Quoting Jay Walker
FXPro's chart shows 1.28171
Hahaha, I think Math has lost his sweetheart



FXCM shows 28174

Duka shows 21148






that means: there are only losers in our bet:


I got only half of Dodgette, the other half can stay by Math. Or Dodgy darling has to become shizophrenic, or we have to clone her, or, wait, maybe she has a sister?

What to do?
  • #780,183
  • Mar 30, 2013 4:28am Mar 30, 2013 4:28am
100 % agree
Quoting pipsin20s
Why USD/JPY Could Fall Next Week
  • #780,184
  • Mar 30, 2013 6:24am Mar 30, 2013 6:24am
.
Quoting infinitus
Hahaha, I think Math has lost his sweetheart



FXCM shows 28174

Duka shows 21148






that means: there are only losers in our bet:


I got only half of Dodgette, the other half can stay by Math. Or Dodgy darling has to become shizophrenic, or we have to clone her, or, wait, maybe she has a sister?

What to do?
Attached Image
  • #780,185
  • Mar 30, 2013 8:55am Mar 30, 2013 8:55am
Quoting SugarPink
Look at the retail reaction to the EURUSD drop from "Cyprus is a template" comment. They bought the shit out of it.
This chart looks nice, may we have a link. Wonder where they got those statistics, is it from CFTC?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #780,186
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:10am Mar 30, 2013 9:10am
I was wondering, what do you guys think of Japan CPI, which, although Yen is weakening for like half a year, still shows deflationary pressure.

I think it is Abenomics is working only in terms of exchange rates and effect for companies will prevail later. That is because although Abenomics help em to reduce some expenses via ER, they simply cant rise prices because noone would buy it. Moreover, there are still heavy pressures on expenses of companies via higher energy costs. In effect this results in stagnating/contracting manufacturing, which should be main gainer from this whole move.

So they expand monetary base and it seems almost nothing is happening, although Yen is weakening. Isnt it strange? What I am trying to know here is, do you think inflationary pressures will prevail in long run, thanks to the weakening of Yen, or do they need to print more? Right now, I think Yen weakend so much, that they just simply can stay on the same road and inflationary pressure reveals itself later this year.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #780,187
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:21am Mar 30, 2013 9:21am
Looks like EJ's at quite an important decision point...will it drop or will it pop?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-03-30 at 13.53.16.png Size: 55 KB


We spent the last few days inside the D1 Kumo and are now testing the lower boundary. The H4 Kumo's still red and it looks like it wants to keep going further down. I'm not getting a clear long signal at the moment as my other stuff doesn't line up, but should the bulls grow some balls on Tuesday/Wednesday, I'll look for resistance at round/half figures, 121.36, 122.10, and around 122.75. If 119.74 clearly breaks I think we'll get a pretty nice down move, but it might be limited due to more QE in Japan on Thursday, because after all, they will do "whatever it takes". That should send the EUR at least a bit higher unless we get a lot of bad news from Euroland.

Have to admit I think it's a bit weird it didn't drop more before the weekend, so wouldn't be surprised to see bit of an up move next week...maybe up to 123.50 even in anticipation of the Japanese monetary stuff on Thursday.

Cliff notes: Under 119.74 short, above 121.36 I'll consider longs with tight SL but will keep an eye out for a possible continuation further down. If 122.10 breaks I'm more happy to enter longs.

PS: This is a post pub lunch "analysis", so I might look at this in 2-3hrs and go "4exNinja you idiot!!"....just thought I'd mention this for those people who asked me to always be 100% right when posting stuff.
  • #780,188
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:26am Mar 30, 2013 9:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I was wondering, what do you guys think of Japan CPI, which, although Yen is weakening for like half a year, still shows deflationary pressure.

I think it is Abenomics is working only in terms of exchange rates and effect for companies will prevail later. That is because although Abenomics help em to reduce some expenses via ER, they simply cant rise prices because noone would buy it. Moreover, there are still heavy pressures on expenses of companies via higher energy costs. In effect this results in stagnating/contracting manufacturing, which...
It will take time to achieve inflation rate 2%, six months just not enough. Exchange rate is everything for export oriented countries. Yes they are facing high energy cost due to nuke plant shut down. Prior to G-7 and G-20 very often news to talk the Yen up and down and especially to talk it up for import payment etc no different than the reason for E/U to hit 1.3713 to serve a purpose. Nothing is new only Japan is refrained to talk it up and down as per G-7 and G-20.

What other solution does Japan have that none of the world economists can not think of to permanently fix it once and for all.

You can't simply shut down a country and file for bankcruptcy due to the production cost is way too high.
  • #780,189
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:33am Mar 30, 2013 9:33am
Quoting 4exNinja
PS: This is a post pub lunch "analysis", so I might look at this in 2-3hrs and go "4exNinja you idiot!!"....just thought I'd mention this for those people who asked me to always be 100% right when posting stuff.
Haha, screw that, noone is always right . But really, posting your thought here takes balls from time to time.

Anyway, I am really looking forward for BOJ action here, but think it is not necessarry. Who knows, I aint politician, maybe they mean it and want to get to 2% really fast (which is really stupid). Afterall, have you seen hentai? Who knows what Japans are capable of .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #780,190
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:41am Mar 30, 2013 9:41am
Quoting 4exNinja
Looks like EJ's at quite an important decision point...will it drop or will it pop?

Attachment

We spent the last few days inside the D1 Kumo and are now testing the lower boundary. The H4 Kumo's still red and it looks like it wants to keep going further down. I'm not getting a clear long signal at the moment as my other stuff doesn't line up, but should the bulls grow some balls on Tuesday/Wednesday, I'll look for resistance at round/half figures, 121.36, 122.10, and around 122.75. If 119.74 clearly breaks I think we'll get...
You may be right and I also think E/J will see more downward correction as it is impossible for USD/JPY to decouple from all world currencies in the race to get cheapest award.
  • #780,191
  • Mar 30, 2013 9:50am Mar 30, 2013 9:50am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Haha, screw that, noone is always right . But really, posting your thought here takes balls from time to time.

Anyway, I am really looking forward for BOJ action here, but think it is not necessarry. Who knows, I aint politician, maybe they mean it and want to get to 2% really fast (which is really stupid). Afterall, have you seen hentai? Who knows what Japans are capable of .
Gave up trying to make sense of Japan a long time ago. I like its food, people and landscapes...but when it comes to trading I'll play it how it comes. Would be quite surprised if hey curbed QE though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #780,192
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:01am Mar 30, 2013 10:01am
Quoting Ken A
It will take time to achieve inflation rate 2%, six months just not enough. Exchange rate is everything for export oriented countries. Yes they are facing high energy cost due to nuke plant shut down. Prior to G-7 and G-20 very often news to talk the Yen up and down and especially to talk it up for import payment etc no different than the reason for E/U to hit 1.3713 to serve a purpose. Nothing is new only Japan is refrained to talk it up and down as per G-7 and G-20.

What other solution does Japan have that none of the world economists can...
car manufacters are rejoicing, while electronics manufacturers are being strangled. which one is bigger in japan?
  • #780,193
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:04am Mar 30, 2013 10:04am
Quoting ec_creep
car manufacters are rejoicing, while electronics manufacturers are being strangled. which one is bigger in japan?
Re-install nuke power plant is bigger.
  • #780,194
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:08am Mar 30, 2013 10:08am
What has the US done to "stimulate the economy"? PRINT
What has the EU done to "stimulate the economy"? PRINT
What has China done to "stimulate the economy"? PRINT

What has Japan done in the past to "stimulate the economy"? PRINT

Sooooooo...if you ask me what Japan will do in the future to stimulate the economy (and it's clearly not "stimulated" enough)? My answer starts with a "P"

All those politicians and central bankers are welcome to prove me wrong...all they have to do is stop printing. So far I'm still waiting and I quit holding my breath years ago.
  • #780,195
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:13am Mar 30, 2013 10:13am
Stop printing when human population is decreasing or from capitalist to something new waiting for discovery
  • #780,196
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:13am Mar 30, 2013 10:13am
Quoting ill_be_back
2823
Did I win the bet
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #780,197
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:14am Mar 30, 2013 10:14am
Quoting Ken A
You can't simply shut down a country and file for bankcruptcy due to the production cost is way too high.
I think as well it will take some time. Like five years. Why do you think you cant shut down country? Anyone can go bankrupt. Enterprise, Me, Family and State as well.

Can you expand on those "important payments" part, or was it just general conclusion? Normally, states are rerolling debt like on weekly basis, so it is kinda hard to "talk it up" because of one payment.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #780,198
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:23am Mar 30, 2013 10:23am
Quoting 4exNinja
...All those politicians and central bankers are welcome to prove me wrong...all they have to do is stop printing. So far I'm still waiting and I quit holding my breath years ago.
My favourite topic. It really is incredibly funny, especially if you have a look at history. Like Roman empire? Guess, why they fall down. And it starts with "P" .

Btw, like a week ago, I ve read article from some ex-FED lunatic, who was suggesting QE cubed and expanding FEDs balance sheet to tens of trillions . But whatever, I think we are at peak of capitalism and it has to a)evolve b)revolt. Maybe it really is evolution and in globalized world, devaluation doesnt make that much harm. But I tend to think that thanks to globalization, it does harm, but it is simply hidden everywhere as the harm is diversified through whole world (derivatives, accounting rules, collateral rules, etc.) and when it accumulates, it suddenly goes boom, as there will be no place to hide.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #780,199
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:25am Mar 30, 2013 10:25am
Quoting Ken A
Re-install nuke power plant is bigger.
  • #780,200
  • Mar 30, 2013 10:27am Mar 30, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
My favourite topic. It really is incredibly funny, especially if you have a look at history. Like Roman empire? Guess, why they fall down. And it starts with "P" .

...

T
and I was just about to ask which country
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