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  • #4,581
  • Mar 27, 2013 8:48pm Mar 27, 2013 8:48pm
Sold AU @ 1.0442
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  • #4,582
  • Edited 10:17pm Mar 27, 2013 9:51pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting Balhana
Sold AU @ 1.0442
Closed 2/3 @ 1.0422 for +40 pips.
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  • #4,583
  • Mar 27, 2013 10:25pm Mar 27, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Balhana
Closed 2/3 @ 1.0422 for +40 pips.
Why partial close at 5M demand which is not shown on hourly charts? Look at 4H chart.
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  • #4,584
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:14am Mar 28, 2013 1:14am
Quoting Balhana
Why partial close at 5M demand which is not shown on hourly charts? Look at 4H chart.
Moved SL to BE+1.
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  • #4,585
  • Mar 28, 2013 5:10am Mar 28, 2013 5:10am
Entered a couple small longs on USDJPY bear trap, I'll see how price acts and maybe add to the position. I regret not adding at the retest of the broken low 93.98.
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  • #4,586
  • Edited 6:22am Mar 28, 2013 5:55am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting freeze
Entered a couple small longs on USDJPY bear trap, I'll see how price acts and maybe add to the position. I regret not adding at the retest of the broken low 93.98.
Closed 2/3, I might reenter if price breaks through and retests the marked supply. Also tightening my stop on the last 1/3.

Edit: closed the rest after price engulfed the demand south for a total of +0.8R, I could get +1R but I added a brief long while price was retesting the mentioned demand zone.
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  • #4,587
  • Mar 28, 2013 6:52am Mar 28, 2013 6:52am
Quoting Balhana
Moved SL to BE+1.
Narrowly missed SL. Just lucky. Closed the remainder for +35 pips (+75 pips in total).
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  • #4,588
  • Mar 28, 2013 9:09am Mar 28, 2013 9:09am
Anyone remembers FTBs? I don't blame you, there certainly haven't been many this month (altough this week has created plenty of good zones, just go over your charts).

Perhaps not a textbook setup on AUDUSD, but worth taking for me. The decision points (and therefore SL/Entry) are very clear on LTFs, they have solid history on HTFs and the breakout certainly has good momentum.

Tightening stop and reducing exposure soon.
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  • #4,589
  • Mar 28, 2013 9:21am Mar 28, 2013 9:21am
Quoting freeze
Anyone remembers FTBs? I don't blame you, there certainly haven't been many this month (altough this week has created plenty of good zones, just go over your charts).

Perhaps not a textbook setup on AUDUSD, but worth taking for me. The decision points (and therefore SL/Entry) are very clear on LTFs, they have solid history on HTFs and the breakout certainly has good momentum.

Tightening stop and reducing exposure soon.
Hi freeze,
I was uploading this asking people if my analysys does make sense
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  • #4,590
  • Mar 28, 2013 9:35am Mar 28, 2013 9:35am
Looks pretty good to me, nice job. I took the 1.4 big round number as additional confluence, that's also why I used the little 1min RBR just below it for entry. If you zoom in a little closer on the 1min, you can see a bigger RBR with a double bottom, I think it objectively allows a tight and safe stoploss.

The stoploss you marked is way too big though, I think any stoploss beyond below 1.03821 (I have it marked on my charts as a DP) is inefficient, it doesn't really increase the chance for the FTB working out, but it drastically reduces your Risk:Reward.

P.S. Closed 2/3.

I only gained the confidence to place such tight stops quite recently, I recommend going through your charts, marking up FTBs and observing how they work.
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  • #4,591
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:14am Mar 28, 2013 10:14am
Closed last 1/3 for a total profit of +1.3R after commission.
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  • #4,592
  • Mar 28, 2013 10:24am Mar 28, 2013 10:24am
Quoting freeze
Looks ....
Thanks freeze.
  • #4,593
  • Edited 12:06pm Mar 28, 2013 11:24am | Edited 12:06pm
Damn, I was waiting for this QM on USDJPY the whole day. Of course it triggers while I'm cooking lunch Could have entered with a very tight stop and had some profit banked already, instead I entered late with the smallest possible position just for giggles.

If you don't know what QM is, I recommend reading this.

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/...r-pattern.html

Edit: there was absolutely no momentum, closed at BE.
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  • #4,594
  • Edited 3:03pm Mar 28, 2013 11:38am | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting freeze
Anyone remembers FTBs?.
Cautious on the stop losses, latter trade almost got hit.

1st trade, compression, liquidity spike target base of wedge
2nd FTB former S new found D, out at FLR (if a little premature). Good acceleration.

1R on each give or take. Apologies for the quality of charts. 1m TF.
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  • #4,595
  • Mar 28, 2013 1:23pm Mar 28, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting MBatini
Looking for comments on my view of this FTB.

Thanks
My very brief 2 cents. Overall conclusion: would never short. GL.

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  • #4,596
  • Mar 28, 2013 2:49pm Mar 28, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting MBatini
Looking for comments on my view of this FTB.

Thanks
This is my extensive analysis of this FTB. Note that it's only my opinion reached through hours and hours of backtesting, Mark and other traders may see it differently.

Remember, when looking for decision points, prioritize untested LTF bars and consolidations which should stand out as turning points for price, as clear decisions to move price.
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  • #4,597
  • Mar 29, 2013 5:23am Mar 29, 2013 5:23am
A very big thanks to Supernaut and freeze for their comments and hints. Many of my setups are 'set-and-forget' type due to my full time job. It is mandatory (to me) to have a review of the failing ones while learning. Thanks to all.
  • #4,598
  • Mar 29, 2013 6:26am Mar 29, 2013 6:26am
Quoting MBatini
A very big thanks to Supernaut and freeze for their comments and hints. Many of my setups are 'set-and-forget' type due to my full time job. It is mandatory (to me) to have a review of the failing ones while learning. Thanks to all.
I should add another 2 cents. First of all I'm trading (mostly) in similar fashion like you. Set-and-forget and 4h charts. That gives me plenty of time to follow what's going on.

About setup. I like the short, if breakout candle goes straight into your supply. In this case it's a possibility that we will see a false breakout. But breakout candle didn't meet your entry and the next 3 candles form a new base. New base hints that breakout to the upside is valid and false breakout is now unlikely. At the very least your profit margin is now much lower if you still short from your supply.

Considering that basing lasted for 3 candles (that's 12 hours) then you should have plenty of time to review your setup. So my main message... set-and-forget style doesn't mean that you shouldn't look at your setup at all. Market changes and you must be aware what's going on. That doesn't mean you have to follow the market all time. Twice per day is just enough (before and after workday). However... in most cases changing things is not needed and is actually a bad habit. But in some rare cases like this one, it's pretty obvious that odds have changed against you. The trick is to figure out when some tweaking is needed and when not. I have been trading for several years and still screw things up quite often, because I simply wasn't paying enough attention.
  • #4,599
  • Mar 29, 2013 6:49am Mar 29, 2013 6:49am
I agree that price basing (consolidating) just before your entry is often a valid reason for cancelling the trade (because it often breaks the consolidation with a strong move). If you still take the trade, you have to manage it accordingly - you need to understand that the first trouble area (the consolidation, and especially any untested demand within it) have a good chance to reverse price.

In case of a set-and-forget, I'd take full profit at the first untested demand in this CADCHF. It's not efficient trade management if you took a FULL loss on this one (you could take partial profit, move SL above the initial reaction - especially since there weren't many other DPs. I know, it's harder to do this set-and-forget).
  • #4,600
  • Mar 29, 2013 7:40am Mar 29, 2013 7:40am
Quoting 5.25
Nice. Caught the FTSE instead but missed the clearer setup 1st time round.

Didn't match you R.
Nice trading on the FTSE.

I couldn't match his Dax R either with my best trade that day, but came quite close.
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